DTM Model Epidemiological Model Thomas Malthus Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries?

Hans Rosling “TED” Boxes Video Hans Rosling "TED" Religion and Population Video

What is the Demographic Transition? high The shift from high to low mortality and fertility through “four” distinct stages. Based on the experience of Western Europe’s Industrial Age. Began by Warren Thompson in Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein A sign of socio-economic progress? The Demographic Transition Model – 1. Low growth– 3. Moderate growth – 2. High growth– 4. Low growth

The Demographic Transition Stage 1: Low Growth –Very high CBR –Very high CDR –Very low NIR Stage 2: High Growth –High CBR –Rapidly declining CDR –Very high NIR Stage 3: Moderate Growth –Rapidly declining CBR –Moderately declining CDR –Moderate NIR Stage 4: Low Growth or Stationary –Very low CBR –Low, slightly increasing CDR –Zero or negative NIR Stage 5?: Stationary population level (SPL)?

In Depth New Model

Stage 1  Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating.  Reasons  Birth Rate is high as a result of:  Lack of family planning  High Infant Mortality Rate  Need for workers in agriculture  Religious beliefs  Children as economic assets  Death Rate is high because of:  High levels of disease  Famine  Lack of clean water and sanitation  Lack of health care  War  Competition for food from predators such as rats  Lack of education  Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) today.

In Depth New Model

Stage 2 - Early Expanding  Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily.  Reasons  Death Rate is falling as a result of:  Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)  Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)  Improved sanitation  Improved food production and storage  Improved transport for food  Decreased Infant Mortality Rates  Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

In Depth New Model

Stage 3 - Late Expanding  Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising.  Reasons:  Family planning available  Lower Infant Mortality Rate  Increased mechanization reduces need for workers  Increased standard of living  Changing status of women  Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil.

In Depth New Model

Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating Birth Rate and Death Rate both low. Population steady. – Economy is settled – Fully developed Middle Class – Political stability Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain

In Depth New Model

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions MaleFemaleMaleFemale Age Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, Age Distribution of the World’s Population

Stage 5? – Declining Population Theoretical Death Rate exceeds Birth Rate. Negative NIR Mostly Eastern European Countries – Russia – Belarus – Germany – Italy – Japan Many developed countries are predicted to experience population decline. –Factor of more elderly than young population in these countries –Fewer young women who will be entering their childbearing years –Elderly Support Ratio - The number of working-age people (ages 15–64) divided by the number of persons 65 or older

© 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. ELDERLY SUPPORT RATIO

Demographic Transition Model What happens to _____ in each stage? CBR CDR Total Population

Where are these on the DTM? Country A CBR: 12 CDR: 7 Migration: 6 LE: 82 What would the Pop Pyramid look like? DTM Stage? Problems?

Where are these on the DTM? Country B CBR: 23 CDR: 6 Migration: -2 LE: 69 What would the Pop Pyramid look like? DTM Stage? Problems?

Where are these on the DTM? Country C CBR: 31 CDR: 10 Migration: 0 LE: 56 What would the Pop Pyramid look like? DTM Stage? Problems?

TFR = 4.6 Growth Rate = 2.1%

TFR = 2.6 Growth Rate = 1.4%

TFR = 2.1 Growth Rate = 0.9%

Review Which Stage (or Stages) are described below? 1.Modernization, urbanization, lower birth rates. 2.All MDC’s. 3.Children are an economic asset. 4.Population in equilibrium. 5.Women begin to achieve status and education. 6.The pyramid shaped Population Pyramid. 7.Low TFR. 8.Beehive Population Pyramid 9.Will find ZPG. 10.High Life Expectancy.

What is wrong with this graph?

What is the cause of death in each stage ? Epidemiological Transition:

Epidemiological Transition: Epidemiological Transition: What is the cause of death in each stage ? Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine. Infectious diseases, parasitic diseases, accidents, animal attacks. “Natural Checks” i.e. Black Plague Stage 2: Receding Pestilence. Reduce CDR due to improved sanitation, nutrition, and medicine…but not for everyone immediately. i.e. Cholera – hits poor urban dwellers

Epidemiological Transition: Epidemiological Transition: What is the cause of death in each stage ? Stage 3: Degenerative and Human-created diseases: Stage 3: Degenerative and Human-created diseases: Decrease in infectious diseases (polio, measles) but increase in Chronic disorders associated with aging i.e. Cardiovascular diseases and cancer Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative: Chronic diseases, but with extended life expectancy. Better life choices, diet, exercise, reduce use of tobacco and alcohol

Epidemiological Transition: Epidemiological Transition: What is the cause of death in each stage ? Stage 5: Reemergence of infectious diseases and parasitic diseases: Stage 5: Reemergence of infectious diseases and parasitic diseases: Malaria ( DDT resistant Mossies ), TB ( Poverty prevents treatment in LDC ), Avian Flu ( Speed of travel ), or AIDS. What will these do to CDR? What might be stage 5 of the DTM?

What Factors Affect the Natural Increase Rate Economic Development: Healthcare, employment, nutrition Education: fertility rates, prenatal care, use of contraceptives Gender Empowerment: Women with access to political process, education, and power. Healthcare: Decrease IMR, and Increase LE but also family planning and contraceptives Cultural Traditions: tend to encourage high fertility, women place is the home, woman’s only work is having children Public Policy: Government actions, One Couple, One Child Policy in China