Demographic Transition Model-- the Basics There are four stages of transition from an agricultural subsistence economy to an industrialized country Demographic patterns move from extremely high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates In the process population growth rates skyrocket and then fall again The crude death rate first falls because of the influx of better health technology, and then the birth rate gradually falls to match the new social structure

The Classic Demographic Transition Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

This chart explains the typical changes in the birth rate and death rate that happen as a country industrializes (including the U.S.). Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

It models the classic demographic transition. This shift occurred throughout Europe & North America, in the 19th and early 20th centuries, and started in many developing countries in the middle of the 20th century. Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Stage 1: The trend of high birth and death rates (and minimal population growth) Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Stage 2: Starts when the death rate begins to drop for years, and often decades, until the beginning of its stabilization at a new, low level. (In Europe, this stage happened because of improved health and living conditions and marked beginning a period of rapid population growth.) Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Stage 3: Next the birth rate falls to about the same, low level as the death rate. Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Stage 4: With birth and death rates at similar low levels, the equilibrium of slow population growth is regained. Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Demographic Transition Model – Looking at The Whole Picture

Looking at Population Pyramids and inferring the transition stage Moving through the stages the population pyramid flattens Angola Stage 2: large number of young & small number of old Turkey Stage 3: urbanizing & people having fewer children Japan Stage 4: large number past reproduction & younger ages- small

Methods for decreasing CBR 1.Lower birth rates through education and health care – Improve local economic conditions – Wealthier communities have money to allocate to education & health care that promotes lower birth rates 2.Lower birth rates through contraception 1.More immediate results reaped than previous approach; Bangladesh from 6% using 1980 to 56% in Meets with greater resistance, because it goes against cultural or religious beliefs of some; Roman Catholics, fundamentalist Protestants, Muslims, and Hindus.

Percent women using family planning More than 2/3rd developed countries couples use a family- planning method. China world’s highest rate of family planning; the lowest rates are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Malthus Theory on Overpopulation Malthus claimed population growing faster than increase in food supply – Essay on the Principle of Population Neo-Malthusians – Some take his theories further today as he didn’t foresee stage 2 development in all the developing countries – Some believe the fight for natural resources is even more severe than his predictions – Jared Diamond UCLA: “Global connections make it possible for global collapse; Inequalities in consumption rates are unsustainable. If consumption rates continue, immigration rates will continue, terrorism will continue, and wars will be unstoppable, and wars involve nuclear weapons. We risk a global collapse. No country can collapse in isolation anymore.”

Malthus Critics Critics refute resource depletion as Malthus believed resources are fixed rather than expanding Critics refute population growth as a negative occurrence – Larger populations stimulate economic growth – Increased demand develops more jobs – Larger population—more brains—brain power – Population growth not the problem, but lack of rule of law and poor governmental/economic systems – We have enough resources, but lack equitable distribution

Malthus & Reality World food production has grown at faster rate than population growth – Better growing techniques, higher yielding seeds, & cultivation of more land Malthus expected population to quadruple in a half-century – In India population has grown slower than food production

Production of wheat and rice has increased more rapidly than has population.

Japan Population Pyramid with 2050 Projection Shifted from a broad base in 1950 to a rectangular shape. In future, bottom of the pyramid expected to contract and top to expand. Did Malthus see this?

Predicting Population in the Future 21 st century predictions forecast a slower Natural Increase Rate (NIR) Population Reference Bureau estimates 9.5 billion for 2050 – 97% of this increase from 7 billion to 9.5 billion will be in developing countries Best indicator of population growth is Total Fertility Rate (TFR) United Nations forecast – If TFR remains unchanged at 2.5 then world’s population at 12.5 billion in 2050 – If TFR declines to 1.5 then world population at 8 billion in 2050

A Quick Look at India India was in stage #1 of demographic transition until its independence in 1947 – Virtually no increase in NIR Crude Death Rate declined in 1950 to 20 per 1,000 & Crude Birth Rate stayed at 40 – What percent increase was that? – 20/1000 or 2% India began family planning with birth control devices Sterilization began in 1971 and abortion became legal in 1972 – Incentives given in the form of payments – Sterilization still in existence today

A Quick Look at China China has been successful with its NIR One child policy adopted in 1980 Chinese couples need a permit to have a child Incentives given – Financial subsides – A long maternity leave – Better housing – More land Can’t get married until 22 (men) & 20 women

Stage 5 in Demographic Transition Model????? A possible stage #5 is predicted by some demographers Characteristics of Stage #5 – Low CBR + increasing CDR = decline NIR Reasoning for a stage #5 – Several decades of low birth rates means fewer women in child-bearing years – Aging population means high CDR Countries currently in this stage: Russia – Japan on the way ??

Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model may be occurring Note the shapes