The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Rob Gardner March 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including.

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Presentation transcript:

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Rob Gardner March 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Energy Outlook Development ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy 100 countries 15 demand sectors Residential Commercial Lt. Transportation Hvy. Transportation Aviation Marine Rail Chemicals Asphalt Lubricants Flaring Energy Industry Agriculture Heavy Industry Power Generation Motor Gasoline Distillate Naphtha Jet Fuel Fuel Oil LPG Lubes Asphalt Natural Gas Nuclear Biomass/Other Coal Hydro Geothermal 20 fuel types Solar Wind Bio-mogas Bio-distillate Electricity Market Heat Technology & Policy Trade Flows

CO 2 Policies ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr – % Energy Saved ~500 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Global Progress Drives Demand Billion PopulationGDP Trillion 2005$ Average Growth / Yr – % Average Growth / Yr – % OECD Rest of World ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy India China Key Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth

Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040 China ~40% India ~15% Key Growth 20% Other 25% Percent Share 60+ Countries 10 Countries Key Growth Countries 2040 Energy Demand QUADS Brazil Saudi Arabia Iran Mexico Nigeria South Africa Thailand Egypt Turkey Indonesia ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

United States Energy Trends ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

United States Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation Res/Comm Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Other Renewables ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Demand Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Generation Leads Growth ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Generation

Electricity Demand Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh Residential Commercial Heavy Industry Other Industry Transportation Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh Wind & Solar Oil Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Gas ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

United States Electricity Demand Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Electricity Demand Thousand Terawatt Hour Wind & Solar Other Renewables ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

U.S. Changing Electricity Generation Fuel Mix Growth versus 2010 by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Generation CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs Coal Wind & Solar Other Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Industrial

By Sector Energy Industry Chemicals Heavy Industry Other Percent Share By Fuel Percent Share Other Oil Oil NGLs Naphtha Other Electricity Coal Gas Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs OECD China India Rest of Non OECD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Chemicals Demand Sees Significant Growth MBDOE By Sector MTA Ethylene Production Asia Pacific ROW Steam Cracking Fertilizer ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy Other Chemicals North America

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Demand World MBDOE United States MBDOE Diesel Gasoline Ethanol Biodiesel Jet FuelFuel Oil Other Natural Gas ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

U.S. Heavy Duty Demand and Natural Gas ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy Heavy Duty Demand MBDOE Diesel Gasoline LPG Gas HDV Gas Demand BCFD Heavy Trucks Medium Trucks Buses

U.S. Natural Gas Vehicle Economics 3-yr. Cost of Ownership; $k Heavy Duty Vehicles Vehicle Cost Fuel Cost 5-yr. Cost of Ownership; $k Light Duty Vehicles Vehicle Cost Fuel Cost LNG Tanks Long Haul Truck ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

2040 by Region BCFD by Region BCFD Gas Into Transportation * Excludes Mexico and Turkey ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Supply

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr % % 1.7% 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 5.9% 2.0% ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Global Liquids Demand by Sector By Sector MBDOE Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation By Region MBDOE OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth * Excludes Mexico and Turkey ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Liquids Supply MBDOE Supply by Type Other Liquids Biofuels 2040 Liquids Supply by Region MBDOE 2010 Conventional Crude & Condensate Tight Oil Oil Sands NGLs Deepwater ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Highest Texas Production Since 1980’s Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; 2013 through August Texas Field Production of Crude Oil KBD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Global Natural Gas Demand by Sector By Sector BCFD Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Tran. By Region BCFD OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth * Excludes Mexico and Turkey

United States Natural Gas Demand Total Demand Quadrillion BTUs Oil Coal Gas Other BCFD Gas by Sector ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Natural Gas Into Industry – United States Total Industrial by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Biomass Coal Electricity Gas by Industrial Sector BCFD Heavy Industry Chemicals Energy Industry

Remaining Global Gas Resource Over 200 years coverage at current demand 1000 TCF Conventional Unconventional 4.0 North America 3.0 Latin America 1.6 Europe OECD 3.6 Africa 4.8 Middle East 6.7 Russia/ Caspian* 4.9 Asia Pacific Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

U.S. Reserves Accelerate Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Proved Reserves - Wet Natural Gas TCF “Proved reserves of U.S. wet natural gas rose by 31.2 trillion cubic feet in 2011 to a new record high of trillion cubic feet. ” -U.S. EIA ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Growth in Unconventional Production Production by Region BCFD Production by Type BCFD Tight Coal Bed Methane Shale Rest of World Asia Pacific North America ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Pennsylvania’s 15x Increase Source: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production BCFD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts Global Gas Demand BCFD China India Other AP ME LA Afr. ROW ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy BCFD North America Conventional North America Unconventional Global Gas Supply Rest of World Conventional Rest of World Unconventional

Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies BCFD North America Local Production Unconventional BCFD EuropeAsia Pacific BCFD Conventional Pipeline ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy LNG

Global LNG Supply and Demand MTA LNG Demand Asia Pacific Europe Other MTA LNG Supply Pacific Basin Middle East Atlantic Basin ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Global LNG Supply & Demand Outlook MTA Existing LNG Projects Under Construction & FID Projects Future Projects ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Natural Gas Trade North America BCFD Net Exports Net Imports Latin America Africa Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Russia/Caspian ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent Deepwater & Arctic Cell Phones & PCs Shale Gas & Oil Sands Wind Hybrid Vehicle Passenger Flights Air Conditioning Nuclear Power Natural Gas in Homes Road Freight Railways & Steamships Canals Telegraph Coal Mining Wood & Coal Heating Personal Vehicles Rail Freight Electrification Oil Prod & Refining Telephone Source: Energy Information Agency & ExxonMobil ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy RenewablesWoodHydroNuclearGasOil Source: Energy Information Agency & ExxonMobil Coal

Conclusions ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Natural Gas Into Industry – United States Total Industrial by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Biomass Coal Electricity Gas by Industrial Sector BCFD Heavy Industry Chemicals Energy Industry

Global Natural Gas Demand Total Demand Quadrillion BTUs Gas By Sector BCFD Oil Coal Gas Other Res/Comm Industrial Electricity Generation Transportation ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Today’s Vehicle Technology Choices - US 2013$k 5-Year Cost & SavingsEstimated Driving Distance per Fill-up ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy Gasoline: 360 miles Diesel: 430 miles E85: 260 miles Full hybrid: 480 miles CNG: 220 miles PHEV: Up to 40 miles miles Electric: Up to 100 miles

Costs Impact U.S. Heavy Duty Choices $k 3-Year Cost of Ownership 2012 Fuel Cost Vehicle Cost $k 5-Year Cost of Ownership 2012 Fuel Cost Vehicle Cost CNG Tanks Short Haul Truck LNG Tanks Long Haul Truck ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy