Population Change in The United States and Texas: Implications for Education, the Labor Force and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Steve H. Murdock, Director Hobby Center for the Study of Texas and Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology Rice University Big Brothers and Big Sisters Dallas, Texas June 16, 2011 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 1

Major Topics of the Presentation __________________________ Population Change Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity Aging of the Population Implications of Demographic Change for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 2

Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, Total Population Percent Change YearTexasU.S. TexasU.S ,592 23,191, ,215 31,443, ,579 39,818, ,591,749 50,155, ,235,527 62,947, ,048,710 75,994, ,896,542 91,972, ,663, ,710, ,824, ,775, ,414, ,669, ,711, ,697, ,579, ,323, ,196, ,302, ,229, ,545, ,986, ,709, ,851, ,421, ,145, ,745, Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 3

Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, United States Texas ComponentNumeric Change Percent of Total Change Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Total Change25,584, ,930, Natural Increase15,875, ,124, Net Domestic Migration , Net International Migration9,709, , Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census. 4 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Change State 2000 Population 2010 PopulationNumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323, Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293, California33,871,64837,253,9563,382, Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818, Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501, North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486, Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261, Virginia7,078,5158,001,024922, Washington5,894,1216,724,540830, Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727, Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702, Ten States in the United States with the Largest Numeric Population Increase Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 5

Change State 2000 Population 2010 Population NumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323, Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702, Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261, Utah2,233,1692,763,885530, Idaho1,293,9531,567,582273, Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293, North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486, Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501, Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818, Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727, South Carolina4,012,0124,625,364613, Ten States in the United States with the Largest Percentage Population Increase Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 6

Regional Population Change as a Proportion of U.S. Population Change, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 7

PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White194,552,774196,817,5522,264, Hispanic (All Races)35,295,81850,477,59415,181, NH Black33,947,83737,685,8483,738, NH Asian9,123,16914,455,1245,331, NH Other8,502,3089,309,420807, Total281,421,906308,745,53827,323, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White44,000,98739,716,562-4,284, Hispanic (All Races)9,650,93517,130,8917,479, NH Black10,606,39110,362, , NH Asian1,417,9613,166,1291,748, NH Other3,901,0293,805,702-95, Total69,577,30374,181,4674,604, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

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Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 14 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 15 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 16

Total and Percent of the United States Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and Population in Poverty% Median Household Income* Population in Poverty% Median Household Income Anglo15,414,1198.1$58,52319,462, $54,671 Hispanic7,797, $43,44211,130, $39,923 Black8,146, $37,9569,407, $33,463 Asian1,257, $66,9611,539, $68,780 Other1,284, NA1,327, NA Total 33,899, $54,172 42,868, $50,221 *In 2009 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 17

Educational Attainment for the United States Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2009 Race Ethnicity Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White139,962, Black22,975, Hispanic*26,106, Asian9,404, Total201,952, ________ Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, *Includes Hispanic persons of all races. 18 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of Net Change in Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States Due to Each Race/Ethnicity, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of Net Change in the U.S. Civilian Labor Force from Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Middle Scenario 20 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000* 21 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming Trends in Educational Attainment Rates Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 22

Steve Murdock Phone: Website: 23 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University