2014 Midterm Election Results Doug Sosnik November 6, 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

2014 Midterm Election Results Doug Sosnik November 6, 2014

2014 Election Results In Brief Fourth Change Election in the Last 10 Years Republican Sweep  Senate: Most Republican Senators Since 2005  U.S. House: Most Republican Members Since 1929  Governors: Most Republican Governors Since 1999  State Legislatures: Most Republican Controlled Legislative Chambers in History Republican Party Favorable 29%/Unfavorable 47%* 2 * Source: NBC/WSJ News Poll, 11/1/2014

2014 Congressional and Gubernatorial Results RaceDemocratsRepublicans Independents Undecided Gain/ Loss U.S. Senate * R +8 U.S. House R +13 Governors** 18311R +2 State Legislatures (unicameral) R+9 Louisiana Run-Off Election – Dec. 6, 2014 ** Assumes Democrats hold VT and AK goes Independent 3

U.S. Senate & House Results U.S. Senate 114 th Congress113 th Congress Democrats4453 Republicans5345 Independents22 Undecided*1 114 th Congress113 th Congress Democrats Republicans Undecided 13 3 (vacancies) 4 U.S. House * Louisiana - Runoff 12/6/2014

2014 U.S. Senate Results – Change in Control Republican Pickups LA FL WA OR NV UT AZ WY NM MT CO ND SD NE KS OK TX IA MO AR WI IL OH NY IN PA KY WV ME TN MS AL SC NC VA GA CT RI MA VT NH DE MD CA AK* ID MN HI MI NJ 5 Rep: Undecided:

Republican Senate Seat Pick-ups StateObama Job ApprovalObama Vote 2012 Alaska*34%40.8% Arkansas29%36.8% Colorado35%51.5% Iowa40%51.99% North Carolina42%48.35% Louisiana**39%40.58% Montana35%41.7% South Dakota36%39.87% West Virginia37%35.54% 6 * AK not officially called ** Louisiana runoff 12/6/2014

7 House Election Results Source: New York Times, 11./6/2014

2014 v A Higher Percentage of the Electorate was White, Older and More Conservative than in 2012 Voters Gender Male Female 49% 51% 47% 53% Age % 22% 43% 22% 19% 27% 38% 16% Race White African American Latino Asian 75% 12% 8% 3% 72% 13% 10% 3% Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative 23% 40% 37% 25% 41% 35% Source: 8

For the Last Decade a Majority of the Country Says the Country is off on the Wrong Track November 1, 2014 Source: NBC/WSJ national poll, November 1, 2014 All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?

10 Obama’s Job Approval is at 42% November 1, 2014 Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal Survey, November 1, 2014

Obama’s Job Approval on the Economy is at 43% October 12, 2014 Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal Survey, October 12, 2014

Obama’s Job Approval on Foreign Policy is at 31% October 12, 2014 Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal Survey, October 12, 2014

State Elections 13

2014 Governors Elections – Change in Control LA FL WA OR NV UT AZ WY NM MT CO** ND SD NE KS OK TX IA MO AR WI IL OH NY IN PA KY WV ME TN MS AL SC NC VA GA CT** RI MA VT** NH DE MD CA AK* ID MN HI MI NJ Dem (1): GOP (4) Independent (1): Assumes Walker Victory in AK ** Assumes Democrats hold on to VT 14

State Government Control 15 LA FL WA OR NV UT AZ WY NM MT CO ND SD NE KS OK TX IA MO AR WI IL OH NY IN PA KY WV ME TN MS AL SC NC VA GA CT RI MA VT NH DE MD CA AK ID MN HI MI NJ Dem Leg. Control (11): GOP Leg. Control (31): Split Leg Control (7): Unicameral (1): Dem Gov in Red State (5) Rep Gov in Blue State (4) Source: NCSL

Looking Ahead

Looking Ahead: 2016 Senate Elections LA FL WA OR NV UT AZ WY NM MT CO ND SD NE KS OK TX IA MO AR WI IL OH NY IN PA KY WV ME TN MS AL SC NC VA GA CT RI MA VT NH DE MD CA AK ID MN HI MI NJ Obama 2012 States 17

Looking Ahead: Lame Duck Governors LA FL WA OR NV UT AZ WY NM MT CO ND SD NE KS OK TX IA MO AR WI IL OH NY IN PA KY WV ME TN MS AL SC NC VA GA CT RI MA VT NH DE MD CA AK ID MN HI MI NJ Dem (7): GOP (16): 18

Primaries & CaucusesDate Iowa CaucusesMonday, January 18 New HampshireTuesday, January 26 Colorado Caucuses, Minnesota Caucuses & Missouri, UtahTuesday, February 2 Nevada CaucusesSaturday, February 6 South CarolinaSaturday February 13 North CarolinaTuesday, February 16 Arizona, MichiganTuesday, February 23 Colorado Caucuses & Florida, Massachusetts Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia Tuesday, March 1 Debate 1 st Rep. Debate (Reagan Library)Wednesday, September 16, 2015 Convention RNC Convention (Cleveland)June 27-30, 2016 or July 18-21, Key Republican Presidential Dates Tentative Schedule Source: uspresidentialelectionnews.com 19