Commentary on Linkages Dr. Quentin Chiotti Climate Change Programme Director and Senior Scientist Pollution Probe Website:

Meeting the Climate Change Challenge UNFCCC Article 2 –Ultimate objective to avoid dangerous interference with the earth’s climate –To avoid 2ºC must reduce GLOBAL emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 –Lieberman-Warner Bill and Canada’s Federal Regulatory Framework on Air Emissions Both fall short of the 80 percent target More or less commits the globe to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere

Pathways beyond 2020 to 2050 unclear, not explained in any meaningful detail NRTEE questions whether 2020 targets achievable Global emissions must peak by 2015 Hence will know within the next decade whether we will overshoot a 2x CO2 concentration level, and reach a 3x or 4x Note that most of the IPCC Assessment Reports are based on a 2x CO2 level

Differences between Canada and everyone else Not clear if intensity targets plus an overall cap is that different from traditional cap and trade systems –Note that only about 50 percent of emissions are typically covered in cap and trade systems –Clear message from the EU and possibly the US that intensity targets does not establish a level playing field –Canada and Alberta need to better explain why these systems can be linked

Will Canada and AB need to establish a cap and trade system? Not clear how oil sands emissions will decline with intensity targets and overall national emissions reduction target Canada and AB seem to be counting on carbon capture and storage California low carbon fuel standard may also pose a barrier to oil sands exports Agree with John Drexhage that oil sands exports need to be understood in relation to U.S. transportation fuel needs Is there a double standard for Canada given that harmonization is encouraged for CAC emissions trading; should not the same apply to GHGs?

Possible Outcomes Provincial engagement in RGGI and WCI seems to be growing Equivalency agreements likely to become more important and necessary Potential for AB and Canada to become marginalized Worst case scenario has a balkanized ET system in Canada, not linked with the US or even International trade Remember Acid Rain experience: provincial action forced the Federal Government to take action

Linkages to other Air Issues Important to link measures to reduce GHGs with measures to reduce CACs Spatial disconnect since GHGs contribute to a global problem whereas CACs contribute to a regional air shed problem Important to consider implications of source contributions to local air quality Growing research targeting transportation sources and significant health effects Great potential for transportation off-sets if standard methods can be established, ownership of emission reduction credits is clear, and protocols developed Goods and freight movement also an issue; protocols under consideration in Canada

Linkage to Adaptation Since a certain amount of climate change is inevitable, important to consider linkages between mitigation and adaptation Note that under the UNFCCC, Kyoto and the IPCC, both Mitigation AND Adaptation measures must be adopted EU example where some percentage of revenue from auctions is devoted to adaptation measures