Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation C-Change in GEES Changing Coastal Environments Session 6 Session 6: Coastal Hazard Mitigation

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Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Session Outline Coastal Hazards Case Studies Management Considerations Session Outline

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Understanding past sea-level change Monitoring present day sea-level change Predicting future sea-level rise Coastal management, hazard mitigation

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Global Sea-Level Predictions How applicable are these global (and imprecise) predictions at a local and regional scale? Projections of future sea level change are derived from models that are based on processes observed in past records and trends observed in contemporary records As time increases (in both directions) from the present, so does uncertainty Management strategies based on an uncertain future FAQ 5.1, Figure 1. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, Set al.(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation IPCC Statements on Coastal Vulnerability Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends Nicholls, R.J., P.P. Wong, V.R. Burkett, J.O. Codignotto, J.E. Hay, R.F. McLean, S. Ragoonaden and C.D. Woodroffe, 2007: Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal hazards: - Sea-level rise - Erosion - Storms - Extreme high tides Key Coastal Hazards

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal Land Uses and Issues Increasing population and increasing demand on space Developments in low lying coastal areas (e.g. Thames estuary) Developed land has a high value and high costs associated with flooding compared to undeveloped/agricultural land Adaptation and vulnerability – livelihood dependency on coast and lack of alternatives in developing countries In Bangladesh more than 17 million people live less than 1 metre above sea level Table 6.5. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Case Study – the London Penzance railway line How much longer is it economically viable to sustain this rail link? What are the alternatives?

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Case Study – Thames Barrier Consider: Lifespan of the defence The magnitude and predicted frequency of events it is designed for The value (and future value) of what it is protecting The Thames Barrier was built in the 1980s to protect London against flooding of 1 in 100 year magnitude. Sea level rise may make it obsolete by 2070 Photo: MarkAllanson (flickr.com)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Public planning Flood defence Evacuation procedures Disaster relief Coastal Hazard Management Approaches

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal Management Frameworks In the UK – based on Shoreline Management Plans developed by local authorities and ‘Regional Coastal Groups’ 2 stage process: (1)Assessment (science): Local sea-level projections Hazard mapping (2) Management (politics): Risk assessment Stakeholder analysis Cost-benefit analysis UK policy developments on coastal erosion and flooding: DEFRA’s 2005 “Making Space for Water” (MSFW) programme ‘Draft Flood and Water Management Bill’ - sets out government proposals to improve flood and coastal erosion risk management

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal Land Uses Increasing population and increasing demand on space Developments in low lying coastal areas (e.g. Thames estuary) Developed land has a high value and high costs associated with flooding compared to undeveloped/agricultural land Adaptation and vulnerability – livelihood dependency on coast and lack of alternatives in developing countries In Bangladesh more than 17 million people live less than 1 metre above sea level Table 6.5. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Coastal Management Options

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Concluding remarks…… Sea-level change is an important driving mechanism for coastal change The concept of a ‘global’ sea-level curve does not exist, need to understand regional & local processes – sea level is not ‘level’ Future sea-level predictions CAN and MUST be improved. Involves the integration of key players (policy makers, scientists, modellers) Ultimate aim: To provide predictions that are of real, practical value (coastal management and hazard mitigation)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation Plot and extrapolate data from a nearby tide gauge using the resources from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level website: On the basis of your tide gauge data, by how much is sea level expected to rise (or fall) by in the future in your study area? What are the main risks and future concerns in your chosen study area? What local factors may exacerbate these problems? Conduct an evaluation of the future vulnerability of your chosen stretch of coastline to risks from sea-level rise, increased storminess and enhanced coastal erosion: How viable is it to continue to manage your chosen stretch of coastline in the long term? How sustainable are the current defences (if any present) or management plans? Activity An evaluation of the potential risk(s) from future sea-level rise, increased storminess and/or coastal erosion

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Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Coastal Hazard Mitigation AuthorDr Katie Szkornik Stephen Whitfield Institute – OwnerKeele University, School of Physical and Geographical Sciences TitleCoastal Hazard Mitigation Powerpoint Presentation Date CreatedDecember 2009 DescriptionCoastal Hazard Mitigation - Powerpoint Presentation - Part Six of Changing Coastal Environments Educational Level3 Keywords (Primary keywords – UKOER & GEESOER) UKOER, GEESOER, coastal defence, flooding, cost-benefit analysis Creative Commons LicenseAttribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales Item Metadata