The Human Population  Human population size  2013 = 7 billion people  Thomas Malthus  Consequences of population growth are famine, disease, & war.  Green revolution has allowed population to grow.

The Human Population  Current Population Numbers  In 2004 = ~6.4 billion  Pop. increase is the result of a decrease in death rate.  More food, better medical care, better water quality / sanitation  Population Changes Population Changes 

The Human Population  Current Population Numbers  Rapid growth primarily due to drop in death rates

The Human Population  Projecting Future Population Numbers  When will zero population growth occur?  b = d  End of 21 st century?  Depends upon resource consumption vs. availability  course=Environmental%20Science&lesson=35&topic=1&width=800& height=684&topicTitle=Cultural%20Carrying%20Capacity&skinPath= course=Environmental%20Science&lesson=35&topic=1&width=800& height=684&topicTitle=Cultural%20Carrying%20Capacity&skinPath=

Demographics of Countries  Demography  Study of population statistics  DevelopED countries  Low birth rates, low infant mortality, high life expectancy, high mean GNI & PPP  Infant mortality - # infant deaths under age 1 per 1000 live births  DevelopING countriesd  Moderately - medium birth rates & GNI/PPP  Less developed – high birth & death rates, shortest life expectancy, & low GNI/PPP

Demographics of Countries  Most Populous Countries Insert Table 8.1

Demographics of Countries  Developed vs. Developing Countries Demographics Insert Table 8.2 (note reconstruction)

Demographics of Countries  Developed vs. Developing Countries Demographics Insert Table 8.2 (note reconstruction)

Demographics of Countries  Doubling time  Amount of time it would take for a population to double.  “Rule of 70”  Doubling time = 70 / growth rate  t d = 70/r  Greater doubling time, more developed.

Demographics of Countries  Replacement-Level Fertility  Number of offspring needed for a couple to replace themselves.  RLF = 2.1  Total Fertility Rate  Average number of children born to each woman.  Worldwide TFR = 2.8

Demographics of Countries  Demographic Transition Model  Stages through which a population progresses as the country becomes more industrialized.

Demographics of Countries  Demographic Stages  Preindustrial  High birth and death rate; moderate growth  Transitional  High birth rate; lowered death rate; rapid growth  Industrial  Lower birth and death rate; slow growth  Postindustrial  Very low birth and death rate; slow or zero growth

Demographics of Countries  Age Structure  Number of males and females at each age in a population  Indicates if a population is growing, stable, or shrinking

Demographics of Countries  Ex. Nigeria  High fertility rate = large base  Population growth momentum  Explains how the future population is affected by its present age distribution.

Demographics of Countries  Ex. United States  Tapered bases = less offspring in next generation

Demographics of Countries  Ex. Germany  Narrow base = shrinking population

Demographics of Countries  Population Under Age 15:

Demographics of the U.S.  Case-in-Point: US Immigration

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Population and Quality of Life Environmental degradation Hunger Persistent poverty Economic stagnation Urban deterioration Health issues Primary problems with overpopulation:

Population & Quality of Life  Greater population  Increased need for food  Land overuse (crops & grazing)  Decrease in agricultural productivity.

Population and Quality of Life  Population and World Hunger

Population & Quality of Life  To sustain a population:  Agricultural land  Natural resources  Developing countries  largest rates of population increase.  Fewest resources to support population.

Hunger Banquet  Highest income= 20% = 2 APES  Moderate income= 30% = 4 APES  Lowest income = 50% = 6 APES

Hunger Banquet  Discussion questions:  What did this simulation model?  Why do you think this global food dynamic exists?  What can individuals do to “change the reality”?  What can larger organizations do to “change the reality”?  What impact does this dynamic have on the environment?

Population & World Hunger  800 million people - don’ t get enough food.  86 countries – low income & food deficient.  Famine – lack of food b/c of bad weather, insect outbreaks, or armed conflict.  Most suffer from chronic hunger.  Food Insecurity – always living on edge of starvation

Population & World Hunger  Causes:  Failure of food production to keep pace with population growth.  Lack of economic development.  Expansion may raise standard of living  Unequal distribution of food.  Population pressures increase food problems.  Ex. Sub-Saharan Africa

Population & World Hunger  Effects:  Decrease in energy  Weakened immune system  Increased vulnerability to disease  Ex. Diarrhea, respiratory illness, malaria, measles

Population & Quality of Life  Proposed strategies for reducing hunger: 1) Strictly control population growth 2) Stimulate economic development 3) Provide better equitability of resources

Population & World Hunger  Economic Effects of Continued Population Growth  Hyp 1: Rapid population growth  ↑ economic development + ↑ technological innovation.  Hyp 2: Rapid population growth does the opposite.  Population stabilization  promote economic development  raise standard of living

Population & World Hunger  Economic Effects of Continued Population Growth  Economic growth > population growth  Raises standard of living  Debt in Developing Countries

Reducing Total Fertility Rate  Influences on TFR  Cultural traditions  Women’s social & economic status  Family planning

Reducing Total Fertility Rate  Why is Total Fertility Typically High?  Gender defined roles  High fertility to compensate for high mortality  Work expectations of children  Religious beliefs

Reducing Total Fertility Rate  Culture – ideas and customs of a group of people at a given period that evolve over time  Cultures have different gender expectations (e.g., # of offspring)  Cultural reasons for high TFR:  Compensate for high infant & child mortality  Important economic & social roles of children  Social pressure to have sons  Religious values

Reducing Total Fertility Rate  Gender inequality  social construct that results in women not having the same rights, opportunities, or privileges as men  Women have higher rates of poverty & illiteracy  Great impact on TFR

Reducing Total Fertility Rate The Social and Economic Status of Women Gender inequity is common worldwide Percent illiteracy of men and women in select developing countries, 2002

Reducing Total Fertility Rate  The Social and Economic Status of Women Younger age of marriage  ↑ fertility rates Sri LankaBangladesh Marriage Age2517 # Children Doubling Time 5832

Reducing Total Fertility Rate  The Social and Economic Status of Women Younger age of marriage  ↑ fertility rates Higher level of education  ↓ fertility rates Greater knowledge of family planning & health Alternatives to raise social status Increased income decreases need for many children More employment opportunities

Reducing Total Fertility Rate

 Family Planning Services  Services enabling men & women to limit family size, safeguard health rights, & improve quality of life  Men & in-laws affect reproductive decisions.  Healthier women  healthier babies  lower TFR  90% decline in TFR is 31 countries is caused by family planning

Reducing Total Fertility Rate  Family Planning Services

Reducing Total Fertility Rate Common Birth Control Methods Oral contraceptives Implants IUD Spermicides Condom, male Rhythm

Government Policies & Fertility  Government Involvement Examples:  Minimum marriage laws  Mandatory education  Government budgets for family planning  Tax structure  Economic rewards & penalties

Government Policies & Fertility  China * One child per family * Problems: * Eroded personal freedom * Disproportionate number of males born

Government Policies & Fertility  India Early efforts centered on compulsory sterilization. complete failure Currently attempting to integrate economic development and family planning TFR’s have dropped

Government Policies &Fertility  Mexico  Young Age Structure Strong positive population growth momentum due to high % young. Government measures (e.g., education reform) have reduced the fertility rate.

Government Policies & Fertility  Nigeria Most populous African country with high a fertility rate. Birth control use very low (8%). Government attempting to improve health care and encourage marrying later.

Government Policies & Fertility  Population Concerns in Europe: Opposite of most areas — fertility rate very low. Pronatalists Declining birth rates threaten a region’s vitality Overwhelmed pension programs and loss of economic growth. Antinatalists A large population doesn’t equal power predict technological innovations will spur economic growth and the elderly will be asset to society.

Government Policies & Fertility  Case-in-Point: The Global Summit on Population and Development  Focused on: Reproductive rights Empowerment of women Reproductive health

Population Stabilization  Voluntary Simplicity – way of life that involves wanting less & spending less  Is it ethical to have more than 2 children? Is it ethical to consume to much in the way of material possessions? Is it ethical to try to influence a couple’s decision about family size?