G21 Neighbourhood House Forum Planning for emerging labour markets 7 June 2016

Strategic Foresight Planning for the future Creating environments through which possible futures can be created …rather than … ‘inheriting’ a future based on assumptions about the present and past ‘Sense and respond’ …rather than … ‘Predict and control’

Principles There is wisdom in the room Use the time and space to see things anew – looking for creative, interesting and real ideas Less is often more - compelling and clear stories Plans are for stepping into Plans outline desired possibilities, not prescribe the future How are we going to work today?

Change happens

‘Disruptive’ change is the new status quo

The big shift is on Connectedness and diversity The future belongs to good collaborators Government – ‘the Gap’ between what it once did, what citizens expect it to do, and what it can do Citizens Active and equipped

Currents of change Changing role of government ‘The age of entitlement is over’

Currents of change Changing role of government ‘The age of entitlement is over’

Currents of change Changing role of government “public service is moving from ‘service delivery’ to ‘system stewardship’…” Peter Shergold Service Sector Reform Review “One thing that governments can do is give confidence.” Pradeep Phillip CEO LaunchVic “ alter the social economy of Australia and open a new market for impact investors.” Bessi Graham CEO, The Difference Incubator

Currents of change Technological advancement …the unimaginable becomes possible… …information is everywhere… …in the hands of citizens… ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution?

Adapted from Bill Sharpe, 2013, The Three Horizons: the Patterning of Hope, Triarchy Press A way of thinking about change… ‘Three Horizons’

How the 3 Horizon perspectives see each other

Planning and Strategy Design Solution What’s our response Intelligence what’s happening Analysis What can we act on Compelling story to motivate action Select What will we act on Strategy/Plan why? | how? | what? Lead/Listen

Let’s look now at this region… ‘G21’ Colac-Otway | Greater Geelong | Queenscliffe | Surf Coast Changing rapidly Fundamental shifts in demographics and identity Unemployment fluctuates regularly Generally ‘normal’ socioeconomic profile, except for pockets of relatively extreme disadvantage Government attention

Let’s look now at this region… ‘G21’ Colac-Otway | Greater Geelong | Queenscliffe | Surf Coast ‘Fluctuation’ – Unemployment Rate Source: Enterprise Geelong, Unemployment Rate Data,

‘Fluctuation’ – Youth Unemployment Rate (15-24 years old) Let’s look now at this region… ‘G21’ Colac-Otway | Greater Geelong | Queenscliffe | Surf Coast Source: Enterprise Geelong, Unemployment Rate Data,

‘Pockets’ of socio-economic disadvantage Let’s look now at this region… ‘G21’ Colac-Otway | Greater Geelong | Queenscliffe | Surf Coast

equals 100 people Industry Profile…. in the year 2020 Let’s look now at this region… ‘G21’ Colac-Otway | Greater Geelong | Queenscliffe | Surf Coast

Approx. 130,000 jobs in Geelong Region in the year 2020

23,000 in Health and Social Assistance 17% of total (compared to 13% in Victoria) 15,000 in Retail 11% of total 15,000 in Construction 11% of total (compared to 9% in Victoria) 13,000 in Education and Training 10% of total 11,000 in Manufacturing 8% of total (same as Victoria) 8,000 in Accommodation and Food Services 6% of total 7,500 In professional, scientific and technical services 5% of total (9% in Victoria) 5,000 In transport, postal and warehouse 4% of total 4,000 In agriculture, forestry and fishing 4% of total 11,200 In Public Administration, and Admin and Support Services 6% of total The rest 15,000 11% of total In the year ,800 In Information, media and telecommunications 1% of total 2,700 In Arts and Recreation Services 2% of total Source: Department of Employment, Labour Market Information Portal, 2016 Employment Projections

Approximately 10,000 new jobs in the ‘Geelong Region’ between 2015 and 2020

Approximately 4,000 of these Will be in Health and Social Services in the ‘Geelong Region’ between 2015 and 2020 That’s about 40% of new jobs In Victoria and Australia, it’s more like about 25% of new jobs will be in Health and Social Services

…of these 4,000 new jobs in Health and Social Services in the ‘Geelong Region’ between 2015 and 2020 About a quarter will require a certificate A bit over half will require Diploma or above Source: adapted by Foresight Lane from 2011 ABS Census. X38 and X39 Expanded Community Profile So about 20% will be employed without formal qualifications That’s about 800 people between now and 2020, who can start their employment pathway in Health and Social Services And another 900 or so opportunities to move into Certificate qualified roles

Source: adapted by Foresight Lane from 2011 ABS Census. X38 and X39 Expanded Community Profile What’s driving these changes? …in health and social services -Growth of NDIS -Ageing population -Increasing demand for childcare -Increasing demand for home based services -Part-time roles will be large part of this growth

Approximately 10,000 new jobs in the ‘Geelong Region’ between 2015 and 2020

About 1,000 new jobs in Education and Training in the ‘Geelong Region’ between 2015 and 2020

About 800 new jobs in Accommodation and Food Services in the ‘Geelong Region’ between 2015 and 2020

About 800 new jobs in Accommodation and Food Services in the ‘Geelong Region’ between 2015 and 2020 And another about 800 new jobs in Retail

Approximately 10,000 new jobs in the ‘Geelong Region’ between 2015 and 2020

Source: 2011 ABS Census, Expanded Community Profile X37 and X38

What else do we know about G21? Colac-Otway | Greater Geelong | Queenscliffe | Surf Coast

The G21 region is dominated by small to medium enterprises (SMEs) o with a few large, key employers Source: Skilling the Bay, Geelong Region Labour Market – a snapshot, 2012 What else do we know about G21?

Some useful information sources Enterprise Geelong – ‘Stats Centre’ enterprisegeelong.com.au/stats-centre Commonwealth Department of Employment – ‘Labour Market Information Portal’ and ‘Employment Projections’ lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/EmploymentProjections