Sales Effect Measurement Nielsen Catalina Solutions Sales Effect Measurement 9/12/16

The Largest, Most Representative CPG 90MM+ HHs of shopper data 13 Retailers with 26 Banners - 18,000 Stores Daily purchase logs (from the stores) UPC level information (over 1.5 million UPCs) 2 year* history of CPG purchases All retailer data is co-mingled Shopper Data is calibrated w/ Nielsen Homescan The Largest, Most Representative CPG Dataset in the Nation HBA, Adult Bev, OTC, Homecare, Pet and Baby All of your retailer data must be commingled together OR you: Will spend money on media for a household that has already bought Will miss sales that were incurred by the household Can’t effectively optimize In-Flight creative, placement, etc. COMMITMENT TO PRIVACY All data is commingled (mixed together at the household level). No retailer is ever isolated. No PII (Personally Identifiable Information) is ever given by the retailer to NCS directly * You Need 2+ Years of Historical Data to Account for Seasonal, Economical, Health Related, or Broader Life Changes/Major Events

What kind of return can I expect for my CPG category? Baby $4.86 Pet $4.12 OTC $3.62 Merch $3.54 Beverage $3.29 Food $3.23 HBA $3.09 CPG Average $3.39 Source: Nielsen Catalina Solutions Norms Database, Digital studies through Q2 2015

Measurement Capabilities Video vs. Display Compare impact of creative messaging Advertisement Placement Advertisement Size Deeper product breaks down to UPC level Instant consumables Impact of promotions Retailer co-op/circular measurement (requires retailer approval) Granular Insight 100K HHs – Homescan Panel (HS) with All Outlet Adjustment Frequent Shopper Data (FSD) 90+ Million HHs

Measurement Offerings Sales Effect: quantifies the offline sales impact of online advertising Digital Video Mobile Retailer (i.e. Ahold, Safeway, etc) Cross-platform Sales Effect Snapshot: provides the opportunity to gain valuable insights on campaigns with smaller media spend (<$200K) Campaign Starts Month Campaign Ends Purchase History: Test and Control Matching Period (52 weeks) Analysis Period

Snapshot: Product Overview Sales Effect Snapshot is Available today in a standard output Faster turnaround via more automation Feasible at lower reach requirements One brand/one volume Single Time period/Total Exposed Households Sales Effect Snapshot is not A replacement for current Sales Effect Less statistical rigor thus lower confidence Less insight due to fewer measures Customizable beyond basic parameters

Measurement Options Sales Effect - Full Read Sales Effect - Snapshot In-store sales lift Test vs. Control Read of one promoted brand Metrics: sales lift, penetration, and purchase frequency Demographics profile ROAS Read of total halo brand and one promoted brand Decomposition, up to 6 brands Metrics: sales lift, buying rate, penetration, frequency, and historical norm comparison, share shift

Feasibility determined by… C D + + Product Penetration Purchase Cycle Campaign Duration Annual FSD Brand Pen FSD Min. Reach - UVs 2% 12MM 5% 4.5MM 10% 2.2MM 15% 1.4MM 20% 1MM Project-specific basis 24 hours (typically) Estimated ‘ballpark’ guidelines Assuming a 12 week digital campaign and a product with a 60-90 day purchase cycle:

SAMPLE REPORT Digital Campaign Sales Effect Measurement Offline Sales Impact Analysis Month X, XXXX – Month X, XXXX

Authorized Recipients and 3rd Party Access This presentation contains confidential information and may only be shared with the following Authorized Recipients. Direct 3rd party interactions required to fulfill this work product are limited to the following Approved Uses/Restrictions. The Project Sponsor is solely responsible for determining Authorized Recipients and Approved Uses/Restrictions for 3rd parties. Project Sponsor Company Project Name Date Authorized Recipients Company Date Third Party Approved Uses Restrictions

Campaign Overview Objective Target Audience Flight Campaign Delivery Grow Sales Target Audience Heavy/Medium category buyers who are also light brand buyers Flight Month X, XXXX – Month X, XXXX (X weeks) Campaign Delivery XXMM impressions delivered; X.XMM households reached Success Metric: % Lift Brand A Dollar: 9%, Brand B Dollar: 4% Success Metric: Short-Term Sales Impact Brand A Dollar: $Y.YMM, Brand B Dollar: $Y.YMM

Campaign Creative Units

Measurement Insights Observations Recommendations XXX

Click to edit Master subtitle style Methodology

Measurement Methodology Step 1 Isolate strategic target in Direct Match database Based on sales 52 weeks before campaign begins All-outlet representative Step 2 Test Design and Treatment Execution A marketing stimulus Magazine Ad, Digital Ad, etc. is applied to a group of consumers Step 3 Identification of Exposed and Unexposed Households and One-to-One match Step 4 Measure & Interpret Sales Impact by focusing on purchasing patterns Exposed Test Households Partner XXMM +11% . MATCHED AUDIENCE X.XMM Unexposed Control Households Unexposed (Control) Exposed (Test) NIELSEN CATALINA SOLUTIONS 60MM *For illustrative purposes only 15

The HH Match is based on 52 weeks before the campaign begins. Purchase History: Matching Period (52 weeks) Analysis Period Campaign Start Campaign End *For illustrative purposes only

Matched Household Pair Matched on Similar: Brand and Category Penetration 1 Total Pre Period Brand Dollars/Volume/Units 2 Total Pre Period Category Dollars/Volume/Units 3 Trips by Retailer 4 Household Demographics 5 Geographic Location 6 Lapsed Time since brand purchase 7

Sales Impact Calculation PENETRATION How many Brand Buying HHs? PURCHASE AMOUNT How much of the products did HHs buy per occasion during the test period? X PURCHASE FREQUENCY How often did HHs buy Brand products during the test period? X BUYING RATE How much are they buying? TOTAL SALES = HH = Households

Click to edit Master subtitle style Results

Sales Impact – Dollar Purchases Dates Households that were in the exposed group purchased significantly more than those that were not exposed. Point Difference: +$0.03 +$0.09 Percent Difference: +9% +4% Significance level: 97% 98% (Average Dollar purchase per panel = Total Dollars divided by # households per panel (includes non-buyers))

Contribution of Sub-Brands to Incremental Brand B Though Brand A only contributed 17% of Brand B’s total volume in the pre-period, it accounted for 33% of the incremental impact. Pre-period Share Brand A 17% Remaining 83%

Sales Impact – Penetration Dates Exposure to the campaign drove more buyers to Brand A. Point Difference: +0.2 +0.1 Percent Difference: +2% 0% Significance level: 70% 53% (Percent of households buying the product)

Sales Impact – Penetration New^ Buyers Dates Of the incremental penetration gained for Brand A in the exposed group, the entirety was due to previous buyers. 0.2 Incremental Penetration ^ "New"– did not buy in the previous 52 weeks (Percent of households buying the product)

Sales Impact – Dollar Buying Rate Dates Exposed households that bought Brand A and B products purchased more than buyers in the unexposed group. Point Difference: +$0.30 +$0.25 Percent Difference: +7% +4% Significance level: 99% 99% (Average Dollar purchases among buying households)

Sales Impact – Purchase Frequency Dates Buyers in the exposed group purchased Brand A more frequently than those unexposed. Point Difference: +0.03 0.00 Percent Difference: +2% 0% Significance level: 97% 54% (Average number of product purchase occasions among buying households)

Sales Impact – Dollar Purchase Amount Dates Exposed buyers purchased more Brand A and B products on each purchase occasion than unexposed buyers. Point Difference: +$0.19 +$0.16 Percent Difference: +5% +4% Significance level: 99% 99% (Average Dollar per purchase occasion among buying households)

Difference in Percent Change within Category Dollar Shares Exposed consumers were making Brand A and B products a larger part of their category purchase mix when compared to those not exposed at the expense of Competitors A, C and D. Analysis period vs. Match period (Dec 14-Jan 15 vs. Dec 13-Nov 14) Exposed -Unexposed difference in share

Brand A “Short-Term” Incremental Dollar Sales Dates Percent of Panel Reached Total Partner Households Estimated Campaign Reach Per Household Incremental $ Total Incremental Sales from campaign Total Media Spend X% X Y,YYY,YYY How many were exposed Z,ZZZ,ZZZ hhlds $0.032 $YYY,YYY X Times how much each was worth (incremental) II Equals total incremental sales $X,XXX,XXX ÷ Incremental $ per $1 spent (Payback) $Z.ZZ 2Per Exposed Household Incremental $ = Total incremental $ ÷ Total Exposed Households (reflects all-outlet adjustment)

Brand B “Short-Term” Incremental Dollar Sales Dates Percent of Panel Reached Total Partner Households Estimated Campaign Reach Per Household Incremental $ Total Incremental Sales from campaign Total Media Spend X% X Y,YYY,YYY How many were exposed Z,ZZZ,ZZZ hhlds $0.092 $YYY,YYY X Times how much each was worth (incremental) II Equals total incremental sales $X,XXX,XXX ÷ Incremental $ per $1 spent (Payback) $Z.ZZ 2Per Exposed Household Incremental $ = Total incremental $ ÷ Total Exposed Households (reflects all-outlet adjustment)

Click to edit Master subtitle style Norms

Sales Effect Campaign Comparison - Total 365+ Programs The campaign’s impressions served, household reach, absolute short term dollar sales impact, and return per 1000 impressions were below average compared to previous NCS Sales Effect campaigns. 776MM 51.2MM $34.1MM $243.63 Average 93MM average 7.7MM average $1.5MM average $22.00 average XMM Brand A X.XMM Brand A $X.XX Brand A $X.XMM Brand A 3MM 0.2MM $0.1MM $1.47 $ per 1000 Impressions $ Sales Impact HH Reach Imps

Click to edit Master subtitle style Appendix

Demographic Profile Brand A Index to total Panel Exposed Buyers Total Exposed Households

Demographic Profile Brand B Index to total Panel Exposed Buyers Total Exposed Households

Analysis Details XXX,XXX Total Exposed HHs XX,XXX Total Analysis HHs X,XXX Brand A Buyers X,XXX Brand B Buyers Data Source: Frequent Shopper

Brand A Dollar Trend Campaign Starts Campaign Ends

Brand B Dollar Trend Campaign Starts Campaign Ends

Category Dollar Trend Campaign Starts Campaign Ends

Sales Impact Methodology NCS Measurement Methodology Summary Sales Impact Methodology To measure the effectiveness of the campaign, the household purchases of those exposed to the campaign were compared to the purchases of those who were not. The ‘exposed’ group was matched to an ‘unexposed’ group that was similar in demographics and had made similar category and brand mix purchases in the 12 months prior to the campaign. The matched group not only needed to have similar purchases in the preceding 12 months overall, it also needed to match on a monthly basis to ensure that households were at a similar stage in the category buying cycle. Having selected like households, the remaining differences between the exposed and unexposed groups should be the result of whether or not the group was exposed to the campaign. Compare the two groups through an Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA controls for any other extraneous factors) to isolate differences in product purchasing during and after the execution of the advertising campaign on 5 key metrics (sales, penetration, buying rate, occasions and purchase amount). If shopper card data is used, we also adjust for all outlet sales, using Homescan data. Apply the incremental sales per household to the overall campaign reach to determine the short term sales impact.