Jiaze Li | Ningzhou Fang | Di Liu

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Presentation transcript:

Jiaze Li | Ningzhou Fang | Di Liu Crown Crafts, Inc. (Nasdaq.CM: CRWS) Jiaze Li | Ningzhou Fang | Di Liu November 15, 2016 Crown Crafts, Inc. 1

Agenda Company Overview Macroeconomic Analysis Industry Overview Financial Projection DCF Valuation Comparable Valuation Financial Analysis Technical Analysis Recommendation

Current Holding Transaction Summary Portfolio Analysis 2.33% of our portfolio value 7.39% of stock portfolio value Source: RCMP Yahoo Account – My Portfolio

Crown Crafts Infant Products, Inc. Company Snapshot Crown Crafts Infant Products, Inc. Compton, CA Dominant manufacturer of infant and toddler bedding, blankets, and accessories to mass and specialty markets Crown Crafts Gonzales, LA Hamco, Inc. Gonzales, LA Market leader of infant and toddler bibs and disposable products Purchased Bibsters from The P&G Founded in Georgia Entered infant business 2001 Reorganize and sold off adult bedding 1994 2001 2009 2011 1957 1995 2007 2010 Listed on Nasdaq Purchased Neat Solution Debt Free Listed on NYSE Purchased Toddler Bedding Business from Springs Global Source: FY 2016 - 10K Form and Company Website http://www.crowncrafts.com/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?BzID=591&to=cp&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=347&ID=1670

Crown Crafts Infant Products, Inc. Bibs and Burp Solutions Product Portfolio Crown Crafts Infant Products, Inc. Hamco. Crib Bedding Toddler Bedding Blanket Bibs and Burp Solutions Bath Solutions On-the-go Solutions Combine this slide with the next one. Source: FY 2016 10-K Form Business Description, Pictures from Crown Crafts Infant Product, Inc. Website, http://www.crowncraftsinfantproducts.com/

Brands and Licenses Company-Owned Brands Quality Licenses 62% of sales in FY 2016 come from licensed brands, which included 46% of sales from Disney, other 38% come from company’s own brand, primarily NoJo and Neat Solutions Source: FY 2016 10-K Form Business Description, Pictures from Crown Crafts Infant Product, Inc. Website, http://www.crowncraftsinfantproducts.com/

Net Sales by Operating Subsidiary Sales by Product Category Revenue Breakdown Net Sales by Operating Subsidiary Sales by Product Category “In the toddler bedding and blankets, Crown Crafts is a top provider with about 85% market share.  On the infant bedding side, Crown Crafts has about a 25% market share. ” - Hala Elsherbini, COO Source: FY 2016 10K Form; Comments from Email with Hala Elsherbini, COO

Operating Strategy Product Sourcing Design & Styling Customers Produced by foreign and domestic manufacturer, with the largest concentration in China Keep close to fad Creative theme Incorporate images of licensed brands into the products Customers Licensed Products Mass merchants, mid-tier retailers, juvenile specialty stores, value channel stores, grocery and drug stores, restaurants, internet accounts and wholesale clubs Major customers are Wal-Mart (42%) and Toys R Us (23%) Sales of licensed products represent 63% of company’s gross sales Licensed brands include Carter’s, Disney, Hello Kitty and Nautica Kids, etc. CRWS 2015 10-K Source: FY 2016 10K Form

134 Total Worldwide Employees Operation Locations Compton, CA HQ for Crown Crafts Infant Products, Inc. Design, product, development and distribution Bentonville, AR Administrative Office in support of sales to Walmart Shanghai, China International Office Gonzales, LA HQ for Hamco, product and design, IT, finance and accounting 134 Total Worldwide Employees Source: 20th Annual BURKENROAD REPORTS Investment Conference Presentation, http://www.crowncrafts.com/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?BzID=591&to=cp&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=347&ID=1670

Management Team E. Randall Chestnut, CEO Became an executive since 1995 Elected as President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board in July 2001 Reorganized the firm by cutting adult bedding business and relocate HQ Olivia Elliott, Vice President and CFO Served as Corporate Controller of Amedisys, Inc., a public home health care company, from May 1999 to November 2001 Served as the Company's Secretary and Treasurer since November 2001 Became Vice President and CFO in September 2008 Nanci Freeman, President and CEO of Crown Craft Infant Products, Inc. Began her career in Red Calliope & Associates, a leader in infant and juvenile products industry and became president in 1997 Red Calliope merged with Crown Crafts NoJo Brand in 1999 Later served as president and CEO of Crown Crafts Infants Products, Inc. Source: Crown Crafts Website, http://www.crowncrafts.com/profiles/investor/Management.asp?BzID=591&sm_quote_field=CRWS

Employee Length of Service 77% of employees have over 5 years of service 51% of employees have over 10 years of service Average length of service is 12.8 years Source: 20th Annual BURKENROAD REPORTS Investment Conference Presentation, http://www.crowncrafts.com/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?BzID=591&to=cp&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=347&ID=1670

SWOT Strength Opportunity Weakness Threats No debt Strong management team Employee loyalty – average 12 years of service Good customer relationship Strength Enhance online presence More diversified licensed brands Increase international sales Increase toddler bedding market share Opportunity Customer concentration risk Little pricing power Weakness License expiration Currency fluctuation Competition within the industry Threats

Agenda Company Overview Macroeconomic Analysis Industry Overview Financial Projection DCF Valuation Comparable Valuation Financial Analysis Technical Analysis Recommendation

Macroeconomic Analysis Number of Births Per Capita Disposable Income Average Age of Mothers Women are having children later in life: The mean age of mothers at first birth was at an all-time high in 2014 at 26.3. This could bode well for the market if these women are at more financially stable points in their careers and lives; they could have more disposable income and be targets for higher-end products. Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com; CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System URL: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db232.pdf

Products and Service Segments Industry Overview Industry Revenue Products and Service Segments Industry Structure Key Statistics Life Cycle Stage: Mature Revenue Volatility: Medium Regulation Level: Heavy Competition Level: High Revenue: 6.1B (2016) Profit: 727.1m (2016) Annual Growth: 4.8%(2012-2016) Expected Growth: 3.1% (2017-2021) Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com

Financial Projection Revenue Driver 1: Industry Annual Growth 11-16: 4 %; Estimated Annual Growth 16-21: 3 %

Financial Projection Historical Growth Rate: Cyclical trend Acquisition of baby product line of spring global Acquisition of baby product line of spring global Historical Growth Rate: Cyclical trend 1. Introduce New Product: Revenue increase 2. Decrease demand in some private label product: Revenue decrease 3. Discontinued unprofitable product: Revenue decrease 1. Introduce New Product: Revenue increase Source: Source: Crown Crafts 10K Form

Financial Projection Historical Growth Rate: Cyclical trend Impact from 2008 Recession Historical Growth Rate: Cyclical trend 1. Introduce New Product: Revenue increase 2. Decrease demand in some private label product: Revenue decrease 3. Discontinued unprofitable product: Revenue decrease 1. Introduce New Product: Revenue increase Source: Source: Crown Crafts 10K Form

Financial Projection

Income Statement Projection ($ in millions) Financial Projection Income Statement Projection ($ in millions)

DCF Valuation Discount Rate Discount Rate 11% Cost of Debt Capital Structure Weight of Debt Value 0.00% Weight of Equity Value 100.00% Cost of Debt - Cost of Equity Risk-free Rate 2% Market Risk Premium 5.50% Beta 0.60 Cost of Equity (CAPM) (Weight: 40%) 5.30% Historical Ann. Return to Shareholders (Weight: 60%) 12.71% 9.75% Risk Premium 1.00% Discount Rate 11%

DCF Valuation ($ in millions) Implied Price: $ 9.6

Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com Comparable Valuation Comparable Companies Carter’s, Inc. Dorel Industry, Inc. Children’s Place, Inc. CSS Industry, Inc. Ticker CRI DII.B PLCE CSS Business Description The largest branded marketer in the United States and Canada of apparel and related products exclusively for babies and young children.  A Canadian company which designs and manufactures for three areas: juvenile products, bicycles and other recreational products, home furnishings. A New Jersey-based specialty retailer of children’s apparel and accessories, marketing apparel under the Children's Place, Place, and Baby Place brand names. Design and execute a broad range of consumer products in specialty and mass market including bedding and bath, textiles, rugs, infant, toys, baby bedding, baby furniture and infant travel gear. Market Cap $4,349.0 $891.2 $1,515.7 $245.9 EV $4,789.0 $1,354.4 $1,313.6 $215.7 LTM Sales $3,131.5 $2,623.4 $1,745.2 $307.9 LTM EBITDA $477.4 $164.7 $179.0 $28.4 LTM EBIT $404.3 $122.0 $133.7 $19.9 Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com

Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com Comparable Valuation Implied Price $9.18-$10.46 Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com

Financial Ratios Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com; CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System URL: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db232.pdf

Financial Ratios Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com; CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System URL: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db232.pdf

Greenblatt Analysis & DuPont Analysis Source: IBIS World URL: http://clients1.ibisworld.com; CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System URL: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db232.pdf

Technical Analysis 60 day average crosses downward through 20 days average and both SMA goes down, which is a ST bearish signal But recent election has changed the trend, waiting for further signal Source: Yahoo! Finance Data

Recommendation HOLD VALUATION summary Current Price DCF Implied Price Comparable Valuation Implied Price $9.85 $9.60 $9. 18- $10.46 $9.85 $9.60 $10.46 $9.18 HOLD Currency Fluctuation Mature Industry No debt Market Leader