Practical Predictabilities of Ozone: Sensitivity to Emissions Inventory and Planetary Boundary Layer

Reference Simulation Settings Shortwave Radiation- Dudhia Longwave Radiation- RRTM Boundary Layer- YSU Microphysics- WSM6 Cumulus-Grell-Devenyi Boundary/Initial Conditions- GFS Chemistry-RACM Biogenic Emissions-MEGAN Anthropogenic Emissions-NEI-11 Photolysis-Madronich

Boundary Layer predictabilities MYJ-PBL Scheme GFS initial conditions Predictability group Reference Boundary Layer predictabilities MYJ-PBL Scheme GFS initial conditions NEI-11 Emissions YSU-PBL Scheme ACM2-PBL scheme Emissions inventory Predictabilities NEI-05 Emissions NEI-Update (NEI-U) Initial Conditions Predictabilities (To be completed) ERA-Interim GFS initial Conditions

Updated Emissions Inventory Original emissions inventory- NEI-11 All pollutants are the same, with the exception of NOx Designed to replicate the NOx emissions from June 2014 Other emissions (such as VOCs were held the same as the NEI-11) Point emissions were updated by the use of Clean Air Market Data supplied by the Environmental Protection Agency. Area emissions were updated by statewide ratios provided by NOAA.

Updated Emissions Inventory: Area Emissions

Updated Emissions Inventory: Area Emissions

Updated Emissions Inventory: Point Emissions

Updated Emissions Inventory: Point Emissions

Standard Deviation of Hourly O3 Emissions Predictabilities 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Median Minimum Maximum

Standard Deviation of Hourly O3 PBL Predictabilities 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Median Minimum Maximum

Emissions and hourly O3 Sensitivity from PBL Maximum Hourly sensitivity from PBL predictability NEI-11 Emissions Inventory at 18 UTC

Sensitivity of Hourly o3 predictabilities It is clear from the hourly o3 sensitivity analysis that hourly O3 is more sensitive to PBL scheme

Sensitivity of peak 8-hour o3 predictabilities However, the sensitivity of the peak 8-hour O3 is unclear. Why? Could the spikes of hourly O3 from PBL predictabilities be occurring at night? Could the smoothing effect of the 8-hour average dilute sensitivity?

Comparison of average Peak 8-Hour sensitivities

Hour of Maximum Hourly O3 sensitivity PBL Predictabilities Emissions Predictabilities

Sensitivity of the Vertical Distribution of O3 Sensitivity to Emissions inventory Sensitivity to PBL scheme

Sensitivity of the Vertical Distribution of O3 Sensitivity to Emissions inventory Sensitivity to PBL scheme

Sensitivity of the Vertical Distribution of O3 Sensitivity to Emissions inventory Sensitivity to PBL scheme

Summary: A new emissions inventory, depicting June 2014 was created and implemented. Area NOx emissions, the category highest impacted by the change, was altered by factors supplied by NOAA. Point source NOx emissions were altered by the implementation of Clean Air Market data. Hourly O3 sensitivity to the PBL scheme is larger than the hourly O3 sensitivity to emissions inventory. Hourly O3 sensitivity of both emissions inventories and PBL scheme is increased by the emission rate of NOx. For the peak 8 hour O3, the sensitivity due to emissions inventory and PBL scheme is relatively similar.