Prof Mark R Thompson April 11, 2017 Combining the Theories: Authoritarian Developmentalism (AM) and Modernization Theory (MT) Prof Mark R Thompson April 11, 2017

Origins Authoritarian developmentalism (AM) A chief characteristic of East Asia Only thing that (sort of) ‘unites’ it as a region Is a commitment to development By authoritarian means First Meiji Japan Then the ‘tigers’ (Sing., S Korea, Taiwan) Southeast Asia (Indon, Philippines, Mal, Thailand) Most recently the communist converts (China and Vietnam)

Exceptions Not North Korea Nor Myanmar Commitment to Juche ideology after death of ‘Great Leader’ Dynastic succession to insure continued totalitarian rule Worry about justification of separate country in divided Korea Only limited reforms under Kim II and III to insure regime survival Nor Myanmar (Non) communist socialist ideology of Ne Win’s civilianized regime Military junta abandons socialism, makes limited reforms after 1988 But don’t want to threaten military control with powerful technocrats

Does East Asia prove Modern. Theory (MT)? In East Asia three of region’s richest countries - Have become stable electoral democracies Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Japan under post-WWII U.S. influence But South Korea and Taiwan after rapid growth

Other factors South Korea and Taiwan ‘divided nations’ Made it harder for AD leaders to gain legitimacy Increasing ‘nationalist’ opposition Student-led in South Korea ‘Native’ Taiwanese resentful of KMT rule Both countries dependent on US economically and for external security U.S. pressure for regime change

‘Too poor to be democratic’ Other countries became electoral democracies - before they became rich Philippines (1986); Thailand (1993) Indonesia (1998) most recently Myanmar (2016) But are unstable politically Thai democracy collapses (military coups 2006, 2008, and since 2014) Philippine democracy threatened (with election of Duterte 2016) Indonesia vulnerable (minorities persecuted)

‘Too rich to be authoritarian’ While other countries became rich - Without becoming democratic - Above all Singapore - But also Malaysia East Asia home to the - two richest countries in the world - not dependent on oil exports - which are not liberal electoral democracies - Electoral authoritarian - Singapore seen as ‘model’ for China - Meritocratic one-party dominant rule

Conclusion I Economically and politically successful AD regimes can escape the ‘modernization trap’ although ‘meritocratic’ Singapore only current example (Malaysia’s government discredited by scandal ) China trying to imitate it

Conclusion II Economically unsuccessful ones have democratized When they are still relatively poor Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia But problems of ‘political order’ weaken/undermine democracy Such as Thailand’s military coup Or democratic deconsolidation in the Philippines

Conclusion III Economically successful AD regimes but politically ‘unsuccessful’ yielded to protests/pressures for democratic transition Have become relatively successful democracies South Korea and Taiwan some see S. Korea’s current corruption scandal as vindication of well functioning democracy victory of opposition DPP in 2015 underlines robust democracy even if much disliked by Beijing

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