What is new with the Forest Vegetation Simulator?

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Presentation transcript:

What is new with the Forest Vegetation Simulator? Erin Smith-Mateja Biometrics Group Forest Management Service Center USDA-FS-WO

Outline FMSC/FVS Overview Carbon Accounting Climate Extension PN & WC updated mortality equations New Organon-FVS Variants OPEN-FVS Database New FVS Interface…

Forest Management Service Center A sub-staff of the USDA Forest Service National Headquarters Forest Management Staff Supports timber sales contracting and forest modeling Provides biometric support to the Forest Service and our partners

Biometric Support Areas Forest Products Measurement develops and maintains timber cruising, scaling, volume and biomass calculation, and area determination software Forest Vegetation Modeling enhances, maintains and supports the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a nationally supported framework for growth and yield modeling

What is FVS? Individual-tree, distance-independent growth and yield model Responsive to site, structural differences and management actions common to forest stands found throughout the United States

Suggested Range Map

Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) Incorporates existing fire behavior and effect models with new snag and fuel dynamic models Simulate additional stand biomass dynamics over time for live and dead: standing trees (boles and crowns) surface fuels Predict or simulate the effects of fire on stand components

Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) Use of SVS to communicate management alternatives and impacts of fire on stands. Wildfire with out management vs. with management.

Carbon Model Converts stand biomass estimates to carbon Estimates carbon removed from the stand through harvest and fire activities Estimates the fate of harvested products Approved for estimating carbon stock changes in American Carbon Registry (ACR) projects.

FVS Climate Extension Base FVS Assumes: Past Climate = Future Climate Climate FVS Assumes: Past Climate ≠ Future Climate

General Circulation Models (GCM) Canadian Center of Climate Modeling and Analysis The Community Earth System Model CGCM3-A2 CCSM4_rcp60 CGCM3-B1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CGCM3-A1B GFDLCM3_rcp60 Met Office Hadley Centre –UK (HADMC3) Hadley Center/Met Office (UK) HADMC3-A2 HadGEM2ES_rcp60 HADMC3-B2 Our ensemble of 17 AR5 model predictions Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory -Princeton University, NOAA Research (GFDLCM21) Ensemble_rcp45 Ensemble_rcp60 GFDLCM21-A2 Ensemble_rcp85 GFDLCM21-B1

Example of Predicted Climate Change

Predicted Species Ranges 1990-2090 Utah juniper Pinyon pine

Viability Score Example Viability Scores* Location on Siskiyou NF CODES: PILA PSME QUKE 1990 0.910 0.857 0.633 2030 0.835 0.803 0.805 2060 0.539 0.640 0.898 2090 0.396 0.787 0.763 * Lat: 42.5 Long: -123.6, Elev: 2400, based on Ensemble RCP60

Climate Extension Provides a tool for considering the effects of climate change on forested ecosystems Modifies growth, mortality, and regeneration models based on various climate scenarios Available in the western US, development in eastern US is ongoing

FVS-ORGANON Idea of merging these models is not new Broaden user base BLM interest (funding) Blessings from developers

FVS-ORGANON 1st try used ORGANONS DLLS 2nd try incorporates ORGANON FORTRAN subroutines into FVS code 3rd added additional functionality Trees less than 4.5 tall Non-Organon species Plant or add natural regeneration Works with Event Monitor Work with most FVS extensions Uses FVS’s Canopy cover calculations Default is FVS volume equations based on location

FVS-ORGANON FVSoc FVSop smc nwo swo

FVSpn and FVSwc Mortality 3 stands- no thinning Inventoried in the 1958 (478 TPA), 30 yrs old Primarily DF, scattered WH, RA and BM Grown and simulated forward to 2003 YEAR AGE TREES BA SDI TOP HT QMD average ACTUAL 2003 84 193 354 510 156 18.4 Predicted OLDEQN 218 351 520 158 17.2

FVSpn and FVSwc Mortality

FVSpn and FVSwc Mortality

FVSpn and FVSwc Mortality YEAR AGE TREES BA SDI TOP HT QMD average ACTUAL 2003 84 193 354 510 156 18.4 predictedOLDEQN 218 351 520 158 17.2 Predicted NEWEQN 204 379 545 159

open-fvs Build Process/Download of source code API rFVS Vbnet-FVS Source Forge https://sourceforge.net/projects/open-fvs/?source=directory Build Process/Download of source code VS, unix, rtools API rFVS Vbnet-FVS

FMSC-FVS Contacts Forest Management Service Center 2150 Centre Ave, Bldg. A, Suite 341a Fort Collins, CO 80526 www.fs.fed.us/fmsc/fvs FVS Helpdesk 970-295-5770 wo_ftcol_fvs@fs.fed.us Erin Smith-Mateja 541-471-6706 eesmith@fs.fed.us Mike Van Dyck, FVS group leader Lance David Bob Havis Chad Keyser Michael Shettles

FVS Website: www.fs.fed.us/fmsc/fvs