Election 2016: What Happened? Prof. Jennifer N. Victor @jennifernvictor

Questions Why were the forecasts wrong? How have our politics changed? What should we expect in a Trump presidency?

Why were the forecasts wrong?

Polling averages: Clinton was never behind Source: Pollster.com

All the poll-based forecasting models predicted Clinton win But: Clinton won the popular vote Most models are not designed to predict Electoral College outcome Polls were wrong-not-wrong Source: New York Times

Hypothesis 1: Sample Error Pollsters seek to estimate preferences among “likely voters” “Likely voters” = “have you voted before” This may have underestimated Trump vote Solution: random sample from eligible voters and then weight by the probability of turnout. H/T: Prof. Justin H. Gross

Hypothesis 2: Hard to poll undecideds Independent, undecided, and third-party voters decided late. Difficult to accurately predict their vote.

Polls correctly predicted support for Clinton, but not Trump Polls are accurate predictors of Clinton vote Polls consistently underestimate Trump vote Source: @smotus, Mischiefs of Faction on Vox:

Hypothesis 3: Undecideds were “shy” The “Bradley Effect” When voters are reluctant to reveal their true preference in pre-election polls because they don’t want to be judged by pollsters. Reluctance to show support for minority candidate. Polling differs from outcome. Some evidence for this, but we’re not sure WHY

Hypothesis 4: Underestimated Fundamentals Not all the models were wrong.

Not all forecasts were wrong Some early forecasts based on structural features of election predicted Trump. The Fundamentals: Incumbency President’s popularity GDP growth

Fundamental #1 The longer a party holds the White House, the lower its probability of keeping it in the next election. Democrats were seeking a third term.

Fundamental #2: Obama approval ratings In the 12 elections from 1948 to 1992, when the party controlling the White House had a July presidential approval rating exceeding 50 percent, it won. July 2016: Obama approval 49%

Fundamental #3: Gross Domestic Product 2nd quarter GDP growth is predictive of incumbent support 1.4 % growth is moderate

Election Fundamentals Trump Victory 1. Democrats seeking a third term 2. President Obama’s moderate popularity this year 3. Moderate economic growth mid-year

Hypothesis 5: Enthusiasm gap How elections are won: Turnout. Turnout. Turnout. Republicans were more enthusiastic about their nominee than Democrats were about theirs. Compare to 2012

2016 Turnout was low Source: @bradplumer Vox.com

2016 voter turnout favored Republicans 2016 voter turnout favored Republicans. Democrats did not engage like they did in 2012. Source: CNN

Older, white, Northerners moving to Republicans; nonwhite Southwest moving to Democrats Source: Washington Post/ Associated press

Non-college educated whites turned out, compared to 2012 The greater the density of whites without a college degree, the greater the swing to Trump, versus 2012. Source: Washington Post/ Associated press

Questions Why were the forecasts wrong? How have our politics changed? What should we expect in a Trump presidency?

How have our politics changed Parties are weak Republican elites failed to prevent an outsider from gaining their parties nomination Partisanship is strong Unusual & dangerous combination Source: @Julia_azari, Mischiefs of Faction on Vox.com CNN exit polls

How our politics have changed: parties II 2016: Social/racial dimension grows in importance Predict: Blue party begins to adopt more economic conservative policies (trade?) Are parties realigning their voter coalitions? Predict: Red party becomes more populist Source: @jennifernvictor, Mischiefs of Faction on Vox.com

Questions Why were the forecasts wrong? How have our politics changed? What should we expect in a Trump presidency?

Trump: unconventional candidate Lack of support from his party’s elites. Never held elected office or government position of any kind.

Trump endorsements Source: fivethirtyeight.com

Trump newspaper endorsements Source: Thehill.com

Trump favorability Source: pollster.com

Trump raised less $ Source: opensecrets.org

Trump ran fewer ads Team Clinton aired three times as many ads as Team Trump

Trump had fewer field offices Clinton had more than twice as many field offices as Trump Source: fivethirtyeight.com

Everything about Donald Trump makes him an unconventional president. Trump Unconventional Everything about Donald Trump makes him an unconventional president. Our uncertainty about how he will govern is enormous. No one knows. No one.

Concerns Legitimizing racism, vulgarity. Deepening American polarization. Threats to the norms and institutions that make democracy function Threats to the legitimacy of elections Encouraged voter suppression and intimidation (universal suffrage) Threatened to jail opponent (due process) Intimidated journalists (free press) Calls for nuclear proliferation (reckless) Questioned international treaties, like NATO

Evidence of Reasonableness Bluster may have been just for the campaign show Trump chose Mike Pence Victory speech was moderate Unified government means Less gridlock Easy for voters to assign future credit/blame

American Democracy Flawed and imperfect Robust Not a spectator sport. Work!