DEUTSCHE BANK PRESENTATION 23/24 November 2015 Impact of new competition on existing shopping centre performance
Where are we? And 7.5% p.a. growth in shopping centre GLA since 2005 More than 2000 shopping centres 6th highest per capita shopping centre GLA in world And 2.2mil m² shopping centres on drawing board Mall of Africa, Ballito, Springs, Cornubia, Menlyn et al in the ground: additional 500k+ m2
The disconnect
Why the continuing development? Extrapolation by retailers of “unusual” 2004 – 2007 trading performance Retailer obsession with market share at expense of profitability Retailer herd mentality Relative low fixed costs in growing retailer space – labour & rental Developers subsidizing store development costs Long lag time between commitment and taking delivery Poor market-demand research for both retailers and developers Financial institutions eagerness to “grow” credit book Availability of “put options” to listed REITS REITS eagerness to increase exposure to retail assets Poor/non-existent town planning and local authorities’ eagerness to grow tax base
Continuing decline in trading densities Consequences: Continuing decline in trading densities Ongoing retailer cannibalization and margin compression Increasing occupancy cost to turnover ratios leading to low rental growth Increased operating costs at centre level – marketing Over-capitalization in retail assets in order to compete Declining values for owners and local authorities “Dead Mall” syndrome & “still born” malls
PERFORMANCE RATING OF POST 1995 SHOPPING CENTRES Excluding Rural and Township centres
PERFORMANCE RATING OF POST 1995 SHOPPING CENTRES
PERFORMANCE RATING OF POST 1995 SHOPPING CENTRES
COMPETING SHOPPING CENTRES: RUSTENBURG
Waterfall Mall & Value Centre Analysis of competition impact: Growthpoint Portfolio Waterfall Mall & Value Centre Platinum Square Date of Development 1998 & 2007 Nov-12 GLA - m2 59518 32300 Current Trading density R2850/m2 Major Tenants PnP, GAME, Woolworths, Clicks, Ster Kinekor, Truworths, Foschini, Mr Price, Corricraft, The Hub, Waltons Checkers Hyper, Foodlovers Market, Sportsmans warehouse, MRP Home, Dion Wired, House & Home, Toys-R-Us, UFO Furniture
Performance also impacted by platinum mine strike in 2014 Level of Competition Competition limited to non fashion retailers Overall Trading Density change Trading Density change excl PicknPay & GAME Foot Counts Change 2011 - 2012 8.0% 7.0% 2012 - 2013 -8.0% -3.5% -5% 2013 - 2014 -5.0% -4.2% -6% 2014 - current 5.0% 7.1% -2% Trading Density change : 2012 to current PicknPay -32% R80 mil p.a. GAME -30% Incredible Connection -25% Identity -18% Ster Kinekor -16% Clicks -9% Edgars -7%
COMPETING SHOPPING CENTRES: KRUGERSDORP/ROODEPOORT
Analysis of competition impact: Growthpoint Portfolio
Competition across all retailers Level of Competition Competition across all retailers Overall Trading Density change Trading Density change excl national retailers Foot Counts Change 2012 - 2013 7.0% 7.4% 2013 - 2014 -3.0% 1.0% -3% 2014 - current 6.0% 10.0% Decline in Trading Density: Yr 1 Decline in Trading Density: Current year GAME -22% Maxi's -17% Edgars -11% Foschini -9% Jewellery -10% -5% -8% Ackermans -7% PEP Woolworths -6% PicknPay
COMPETING SHOPPING CENTRES: KLERKSDORP
Analysis of competition impact: Growthpoint Portfolio
Analysis of competition impact: Port Elizabeth
SIGNIFICANT TURNOVER CHANGE OVER PERIOD Level of Competition Competition across all retailers WALMER PARK GREENACRES THE BRIDGE Jun-15 -0.3% -8.0% -1.4% Jul-15 7.0% -10.0% 0.6% Aug-15 -0.8% -5.0% 4.5% Sep-15 -1.3% -4.0% 1.9% SIGNIFICANT TURNOVER CHANGE OVER PERIOD Edgars -21% -17% Shoprite -5.10% Truworths -9% Jet -7% Cinemas -18% -29% Cotton On -26% Duplicated stores Lecreuset -25% Restaurants