Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017

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Presentation transcript:

Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017 Study choices and job matching among graduates from two Eastern Cape universities Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017

Policy: National Development Plan: Increase of gross enrolments from 950,000 in 2010 to 1,6 million in 2030, a 70% increase University science and mathematics entrants to increase three-fold by 2030 Increase graduation rates to 25% (of total enrolment) Envisages an increase in higher education enrolments from 17.9% in 2012 to 25% by 2030

Objectives: 1) Graduate unemployment: Linked with study choices? Or linked with ‘non-HE’ factors such as social networks, schooling disadvantages 3) Job matching: Which graduates find the ‘right jobs’? Are study choices associated with working in a ‘graduate job’?

The Eastern Cape Study: Tracer study of the 2010 and 2011 cohorts from the University of Fort Hare (HDI)and Rhodes University (HAI) who graduated with a Bachelor’s degree Stratified (by subjects and institution) probability sample of 1,211 graduates representing the total population of 4,927 graduates Response rates of 39% and 47% per cent, respectively Fieldwork = online survey and telephonic interviews

Graduate Unemployment

Figure 1: Broad unemployment rates (as of March 1st), by field of study Notes: The data are weighted.

Figure 2: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (main effects)

Figure 3: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (interaction terms)

Figure 4: Using social networks to find employment (among employees) Notes: The data are weighted.

Job Matching

Figure 4: Job matching status among employed graduates, by institution (%) Note: The data are weighted.

Table 2: The correlates of being overqualified (estimation by probit) Rhodes Fort Hare (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Female 0.0899 (0.174) 0.0408 (0.182) -0.00104 (0.189) -0.0286 (0.145) 0.0536 (0.155) 0.0347 (0.160) Black -0.266 (0.180) -0.317* (0.190) -0.260 (0.192) --- Schooling Low quintile 0.359* (0.208) 0.335 (0.216) 0.321 (0.217) 0.362** (0.153) 0.434*** 0.425** (0.170) Higher grade math or science -0.195 (0.178) -0.207 (0.188) -0.227 (0.197) -0.193 (0.275) -0.226 (0.296) -0.125 (0.314) Higher education SET degree -0.167 (0.232) -0.242 (0.246) 0.0111 -0.0831 (0.228) Commerce degree (0.230) -0.160 0.367** (0.169) 0.231 (0.181) Distinction -0.120 (0.293) -0.303 (0.312) 0.238 (0.280) 0.0866 (0.305) Employment characteristics Public sector -0.256 (0.266) -0.116 (0.177) Part-time -0.0233 0.551* (0.282) Permanent -0.466** (0.195) -0.399** (0.168) _cons -1.239*** (0.212) -1.133*** (0.227) -0.718*** (0.260) -1.375*** (0.152) -1.505*** (0.187) -1.166*** (0.250) (unweighted) N 376 368 354 504 437 418 Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. The data are weighted. Marginal effects reported.

Conclusions: Study choice has limited impact on employment or job matching Disadvantages in schooling quality carrying over into the labour market (even for successful graduates) Several possible points of efficiencies/blockages Signalling vs. matching/social networking?