Market Insights from a Trusted Leader - Wilshire Associates

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation.
Advertisements

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.
Economic Assessment William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Not So Silent Partners: Libraries and Local Economic.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Downers.
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT REVIEW THIRD QUARTER Markets Overview 2.US Stocks 3.Non-US Stocks 4.Bonds 5.Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Monetary Policy Committee Financial Markets Developments J. Pandoo Head – Financial Markets Operations Division 14 July 2014.
Investor Handout December Australian Government Securities 1 of 12 AAA (stable) sovereigns as rated by S&P 1 of 9 AAA (stable) sovereigns as rated.
Presented by: Robert F. DeLucia, C.F.A. Senior Economist Quarterly Economic And Financial Market Outlook November 2004.
Economic Outlook for Consumers William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago University of Illinois Center for.
EARNING SUSTAINABLE YIELD Bob Swanson Principal & Portfolio Manager Cambridge Global Asset Management October 2013.
Keith Forslund, Senior Portfolio Manager
Alternative Investments “Outlook for the Investment Management Industry” San Antonio October 17, 2007 Bank Depository User Group Meeting.
Board of Regents, State of Iowa First Quarter 2001 Performance Review Mark E. Brubaker, CFA Vice President Marc E. Friedberg Senior Associate Paul M. Jakubowicz.
Investing in a low yield world David Irwin. 2 CTRL+ALT+DELETE.
Up From Sin: A Portfolio Approach to Financial Salvation Randall Dodd, Financial Policy Forum Shari Spiegel, Initiative for Policy Dialogue (IPD), Columbia.
Attribution Report Returns by Industry, Sector and Asset Classes
Outlook For Financial Markets And Investment Strategy
Brett Hammond, Ph.D. Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist, TIAA-CREF ARE WE THERE YET? THE “NEW NORMAL” ECONOMY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR INVESTORS.
2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011.
Comptroller’s Investment Report Fiscal Year 2014.
Robertson, Griege & Thoele Investment Market Analysis January st Quarter Market Review Global Markets Rebound st Quarter Market Review.
The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.
Investment Strategy in Economic Slowdown M S Narasimhan
MPSIF Economic Update Presentation by MPSIF Growth Fund 3/29/04.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Association of Spring Manufacturers Rosemont,
1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.
The Montgomery Institute Investment Proposal December 2013.
Portrait of the Crisis: Risks and Opportunities for Investors Hung Tran IIF, Counsellor and Senior Director of Capital Markets and Emerging Markets Policy.
The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group.
Economic and Social Update April 2008 William E. Wallace, Lead Economist World Bank, Indonesia April 1, 2008.
Economic Assessment Wade Rousse Economic Outreach Specialist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago IASET Chicago, IL December 12, 2008.
City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.
Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Electronics Representatives Association.
Endowment Trustees Report to Executive Board (Long-Term Investment Fund) Dan Bradbury – Senior Trustee Saturday – April 9, ET #
2002 outlook FFG Global Investment Research February 2002.
1 Economic/Market Outlook late 2007—early 2008 Penn Mutual November 6 th, 2007.
1 JANA’s Quarterly Capital Markets & Asset Allocation Update – September 2014.
Market Review February 29, 2016 INTEREST RATES Month-End 2/29/16 Month-End 1/31/16 Year End 12/31/15 Fed Funds Rate Yr Treasury DJ.
2015 Investment Outlook Yuntaek Pae, PhD, CFA Associate Professor of Finance, Lewis University.
Stock Terminology (continued) Investors make money in stocks in two ways: –Dividends Companies may make payment to shareholders as part of the profits.
2016 Market Update and Outlook April 27, 2016 J.P. King Advisors, Inc. is an SEC registered investment advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future.
From Turmoil to Recovery, What’s Next? Jean McGowan, CFA February 16, 2010.
Endowment Trustees Report (Long-Term Investment/Endowment Fund) Rod Hersberger – Senior Trustee Saturday – June 25, 2016 Monday – June 27, –
MPSIF Economic Update Presentation by MPSIF Growth Fund 11/24/03.
US ‘Fiscal Cliff’ & Eurozone debt crisis weigh on global economy The month started with the much awaited US presidential election followed by the leadership.
MCG Journal Q Quarterly Summary: Brexit Shocks the Markets Stock market performance in the second quarter of 2016 was dominated by something that.
1818 Society Annual Meeting Pension Plan Performance October 11, 2006
Fossil Fuel Divestment
2017 Outlook For the Financial Markets
Economic Overview Washington State Examiner School
Lecture Presentation Software to accompany Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Eighth Edition by Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown Chapter 12.
Economic Trends.
The Third Quarter in Review
SECURITY MARKET INDICATORS
Chapter 11 Financial Markets.
The Economy and Iowa Credit Unions
Economic Assessment The Transformer Association William Strauss
2017 Annual Market Review.
2018 Annual Market Review.
2017 Annual Market Review.
PERFORMANCE OF INVESTMENT CHOICES
Economic Outlook Lake County Chamber of Commerce William Strauss
Economic Trends.
2018 Annual Market Review.
2018 Annual Market Review.
2018 Annual Market Review.
Economic Outlook EconoSummit 2019 William Strauss Las Vegas, NV
PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE
Economic Update Q
Quarterly Market Review
Presentation transcript:

Market Insights from a Trusted Leader - Wilshire Associates August 2017 Market Insights from a Trusted Leader Wilshire Associates

INSTITUTIONAL EXPERTISE Wilshire Associates INSTITUTIONAL EXPERTISE Over $942 billion (as of March 31, 2017 ) in institutional consulting assets advised Advises on $179 billion (as of March 31, 2017) in assets for financial intermediaries Approximately 300 associates worldwide, 70+ of whom contribute to manager research 40+ years of experience Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market IndexSM created 1974 Began asset allocation modeling for pension plans 1980 Wilshire U.S. Real Estate Securities IndexSM launched 1991 Wilshire Mutual Funds established 1997 Hedge fund platform created 2005 System Man Power Storage security 1972 Firm founded. Early innovator of equity risk models. 1978 Wilshire TUCS® created. Currently captures information on over $3.5 trillion in institutional holdings 1981 Pension consulting practice started 1996 Private equity Fund of Funds platform launched 1998 Asset advisory service started for financial advisors 2014 Wilshire launches Liquid Alternatives Indexes

Market Review

MARKET PERFORMANCE Wilshire Funds Management 2nd Quarter 2017 Year to Date 2017 Proxy Indices: Wilshire 5000 Total Market IndexSM, MSCI EAFE Index, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Index, Wilshire Global RESISM, S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, and the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index Source: Wilshire Compass

2ND QUARTER 2017: U.S. EQUITY MARKET Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: U.S. EQUITY MARKET U.S. Equity Markets The U.S. stock market, represented by the Wilshire 5000 Total Market IndexSM, was up 2.95% for the second quarter of 2017. Economic releases during the second quarter were solid, with growth in both the economy and the labor markets. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the Fed Funds rate in June by 0.25%, the second such increase this year. Large capitalization stocks outperformed their smaller capitalization counterparts, with the Wilshire U.S. Large Cap IndexSM up 3.08% versus a gain of 1.65% for the Wilshire U.S. Small Cap IndexSM. The Wilshire U.S. Micro Cap IndexSM was up 3.53% for the quarter and 28.34% for the one year. Growth stocks led value stocks during the second quarter in both the large and small cap spaces.

2ND QUARTER 2017: GICS SECTOR RETURNS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: GICS SECTOR RETURNS GICS Sector Returns The best performing sector was Health Care (+7.1%), with Industrials (+4.8%) and Financials (+4.3%) close behind. Two sectors were in negative territory, Energy (--6.4%) and Telecom Services (-7.1%).

Wilshire Funds Management TRUMP TRADE MONITOR Data Source: Bloomberg

2ND QUARTER 2017: INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS International Equity Markets   Developed and emerging non-U.S. equity markets produced strong returns during the second quarter of 2017. The U.S. dollar continued to weaken during the quarter, providing an additional boost for U.S. investors holding foreign currencies. While economic releases out of Europe continue to improve, Britain is showing signs of struggling with Brexit, although stocks in the U.K. are still producing positive returns. Japanese equities lifted the MSCI Pacific Index higher as the labor market in Japan improved during the quarter, as did domestic demand and consumption. Emerging markets are up most significantly in 2017 among the three major global equity market segments. Returns have been broad based, with 21 of the 24 countries in the index (representing more than 95% of the market value) producing gains.

2ND QUARTER 2017: FIXED INCOME MARKETS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: FIXED INCOME MARKETS Fixed Income Markets   The U.S. Treasury yield curve continued to flatten during the quarter, with the one year yield up 21 basis points and the thirty year down 18 basis points. The bellwether 10 year Treasury yield ended the quarter at 2.31%, down slightly but still much higher than a year ago (1.49%). The Federal Open Market Committee decided to increase their overnight rate by 0.25% at their June meeting, their fourth increase since 2008. Credit spreads continued to move lower during the quarter in both investment grade and high yield bonds. High yield spreads, which have averaged 6% during the past decade, were below 4% during the quarter and stood at 3.6% as of June 30.

2ND QUARTER 2017: REAL ESTATE AND COMMODITY MARKETS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: REAL ESTATE AND COMMODITY MARKETS Real Estate and Commodity Markets   In the second quarter real estate securities were up in the U.S. and globally, the latter due in part to a weakening U.S. dollar. Commodities were down for the quarter as crude oil fell -9.0% to $46.04 per barrel. Oil is down -14.3% for the first six months of 2017. Natural gas prices were down as well, posting a loss of -4.9% to end the quarter at $3.04 per million BTUs. MLP returns were negative for the quarter and roughly flat for the past 12 months. Gold prices fell, finishing the quarter at approximately $1,242 per troy ounce, down -0.7% from last quarter.

Market Outlook

INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE’S VIEWS - JULY 2017 Wilshire Funds Management INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE’S VIEWS - JULY 2017 Nationwide ProAccount Implementation Removing the High Yield overweight vs. Equities Moving from an overweight of Credit vs. Government to an underweight position Moving from an overweight to a large overweight of Foreign Equity vs. Domestic Equity

2ND QUARTER 2017: FIXED INCOME MARKETS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: FIXED INCOME MARKETS

2ND QUARTER 2017: INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION Interest Rates: The Treasury curve flattened during the quarter, with yields for maturities three years and lower moving higher and longer term rates falling. The 10 year Treasury was down just nine basis points, finishing at 2.31%. Inflation: Consumer price increases have moderated during much of 2017. The Consumer Price Index was down - 0.2% for the three months ending in May, and up 1.9% for the one year period. The 10 year breakeven inflation rate closed the second quarter at 1.73%, down from 1.97% at the end of March. Inflation expectations are still up, however, from a year ago.

2ND QUARTER 2017: INVESTMENT GRADE BOND SPREADS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: INVESTMENT GRADE BOND SPREADS Investment grade spreads compressed to remain below their historical average as market conditions remained stable and investors increasingly sought higher quality credits.

2ND QUARTER 2017: HIGH YIELD BOND SPREADS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: HIGH YIELD BOND SPREADS The average high yield option-adjusted spread continued to narrow in the second quarter from 383 to 364 basis points.

2ND QUARTER 2017: 10-YEAR SOVEREIGN DEBT YIELDS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: 10-YEAR SOVEREIGN DEBT YIELDS 10-year sovereign debt yields fell across U.S.A., Spain, Italy, Greece and France. The 10-year sovereign debt yields rose in the U.K., Japan, Germany and Canada.

2ND QUARTER 2017: REAL U.S. GDP Wilshire Funds Management Real GDP growth slowed to 1.40% annualized during the first quarter of 2017. This was not much lower than the 1.60% pace set in 2016. Both consumer and business spending contributed to growth. In an encouraging sign, nonresidential fixed investment was up a little more than 10%, thanks in part to increased spending on gas and oil well drilling. A shrinking trade deficit contributed to growth as well, with a contraction in government spending representing the only detractor.

GLOBAL GDP GROWTH (NORMALIZED, 5 YEARS) Wilshire Funds Management GLOBAL GDP GROWTH (NORMALIZED, 5 YEARS) Data Source: Bloomberg

ECONOMIC MOMENTUM IN EUROPE VS UNITED STATES Wilshire Funds Management ECONOMIC MOMENTUM IN EUROPE VS UNITED STATES Data Source: Bloomberg

2ND QUARTER 2017: EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), remained low throughout the second quarter following the presidential elections. The VIX dropped to 11.2 at the end of the quarter, remaining below its historical average of 19.5.

2ND QUARTER 2017: S&P 500 P/E RATIO Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: S&P 500 P/E RATIO The relative value of the U.S. equity market, measured here by the trailing price-to-earnings ratio, remained above its historical average of 16.6x, with a value of 21.5x at the end of the second quarter.

2ND QUARTER 2017: EUROPE Wilshire Funds Management Eurozone government debt, as a percentage of GDP, continued to level off as many countries within the European Union were stabilizing or reducing government bond buying programs.

2ND QUARTER 2017: EMERGING MARKETS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: EMERGING MARKETS The MSCI Emerging Markets Index Price to Book ratio rose from 1.55x at the end of March 2017 to 1.64x at the end of June 2017, rising above its historical average of 1.55x.

2ND QUARTER 2017: COMMODITY PRICES Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: COMMODITY PRICES Grains and Livestock experienced quarterly gains while Energy, Industrial Metals and Precious Metals suffered quarterly losses.

CURRENCY MARKETS - YEAR TO DATE 2017 Wilshire Funds Management CURRENCY MARKETS - YEAR TO DATE 2017 Source: Bloomberg

2ND QUARTER 2017: HISTORICAL ASSET CLASS RETURNS Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: HISTORICAL ASSET CLASS RETURNS The value of holding a diversified portfolio has been consistently illustrated over the past 10 calendar years. Best Worst

2ND QUARTER 2017: ASSET CLASS CORRELATIONS AND VOLATILITY Wilshire Funds Management 2ND QUARTER 2017: ASSET CLASS CORRELATIONS AND VOLATILITY Below are correlations across multiple asset classes for the trailing 5 years (blue) and 10 years (green).