Media & Computational methods Dr. Nel Ruigrok; Co-owner of LJS Media Research and affiliated at the Erasmus University Rotterdam Dr. Wouter van Atteveldt; Associate Professor at the VU University Amsterdam and co-owner LJS Media Research

Overview Dutch politics & the rise of populism in the Netherlands from 1945 – now Dutch elections in 2017 BREAK Mediated public dimplomacy: Gaza 2008-2009 Computational Social Science Please interupt whenever you have a question or remark!

Dutch political system No districts -> Netherlands is just one district (17 million people) Proportional representation No threshold -> 70.000 votes represented one seat in Parliament 150 members of Parliament 75 members of the Senate King: Willem-Alexander Queen: Maxima

Current politics TOTAL 150 seats Liberals (VVD) 33 seats Party for freedom (PVV, populist right wing) 20 seats Christian Democrats 19 seats Liberal Democrats 19 seats Green Party 14 seats Socialist Party14 seats Social Democrats 9 seats Christian Union 5 seats Party for the animals 5 seats 50plus (party for elderly) 4 seats DENK (party for Maroccan and Turkish minorities) 3 seats

Pillarization

Dutch journalism 1945- Period Dominant Logic Issue Diversity Actor bias Negativity Agenda Setting 1945 – 1960 Pillarization Partisan High external, focus on own issues Partisan bias, institutional focus Low Own party dominates 1960 – 1989 Critical autonomy Journalistic High internal Open representation, personalized Medium, criticism focused on power Even-handed political and media 1989 – now Commercial Audience Low, concentrated in Hypes Power bias, presidentialized Negative, criticism focused away from power Powerful politicians and intra-media dominate

Dutch Journalism Partisan logic (1945-1960) Watchdog journalism 1960-1989 Media logic from 1989 -

Personalization of political news coverage

News waves

The Netherlands' 15 minutes of (in)fame: political coverage and populism in the Dutch 2017 elections Funded by the Dutch journalism fund

Uitleg waarom de Jaren 2007 en 2011

Research question What media sources are used by different groups of voters in society, what is the content of these media and what is the effect of media coverage on voters’ voting behavior and support for democratic procesesses? This can be traced to a new dividing line created by increasing globalization between those profiting from free movement of goods, capital, and people; and those who feel that these developments makes them worse off (Kriesi et al, 2006). This division cuts across existing political cleavages, as globalization “winners and losers” can be found both on the traditional political left and right. This makes globalization-related issues such as immigration, EU support and free trade ‘wedge issues’: any strong position taken by a political party on these issues risks alienating a substantial part of their electorate (Kleinnijenhuis & Van Atteveldt, 2016; Van de Wardt et al., 2014). A crucial aspect of this changing political landscape is the conceptualization and (associative) framing of immigration, EU-support, and free trade (Schuck & De Vreese, 2006; Vliegenthart & Roggebrand, 2007; Ruigrok & Van Atteveldt, 2008). Are these associated mostly with benefits such as peace and prosperity, or with problems such as uncertainty, inequality, and job losses? By studying the conceptualization of these issues in news content, we can place the pressing political questions of increasing populism and decreasing trust in national and supranational political institutions in a new and uniquely historical perspective. This will answer two substantive questions:

Methods used Survey in different waves Content analyses (AmCAT) Ranging from 20.000 respondents to 7.000 who filled in every wave Content analyses (AmCAT) Bottom-up analyses Top-down analyses In-depth interviews with voters of specific groups (young, angry white man)

Groups of media users FACEBOOK USERS Young voters, especially low educted. They do not search for political news but they get their news through Facebook or news widget on Iphone More trust in media than older people, FB is less trusted than other media   NEWS SITES ONLINE Young people but also middle and higher educated people between 30-60 years Young people turst online sites more than older people. News sites more trusted than Facebook, but less trusted than TV and Newspapers TELEVISION Elderly voters (60+), especially lower educated Television is less trusted by older people than younger people. Television more trusted than Internet sites and Facebook, but less trusted than Newspapers NEWSPAPERS Elderly voters (60+) especially higher educated Newspapers enjoy most trust among voters, by all groups. Young people trust newspapers more than older people.  

Media attention political parties Right Wing Political middle Left Wing

Substantive issues

Horse race news

Increased Facebook users per political party

Effects on media users FACEBOOK USERS More immigration news, crime, and terrorism More extreme right news coverage and DENK A lot of horse race news More distrust in politics, especially under young voters. More populist opinions Problems: terrorism, crime, immigration; higher educated also environment and education NEWS SITES ONLINE Not a clear focus in news coverage. Relative more social democrats, but mix of issue coverage. Average of horse race news coverage Average interest/distrucst in politics Average populist opinions Problems: environment, individual liberties, immiration, education TELEVISION Relative more terrorism, crime, immiration news More right wing parties More news coverage on horse race More distrust than interest in politics Stronger populist opinions Problems: terrorism, crime, immigration NEWSPAPERS Relative more economy news Relative more Liberal party and Social Democrats Relative less news on horse race Mort interest than distrust in politics Less strong populist opinions Problems: environment, education, individual liberties  

Conclusion Facebook is an important media outlet Young voters get their news via Facebook and news widgets on iphone They do not search for news coverage themselves. Only if they cannot avoid it, they will read it. No specific news channels for difficult groups Angry white man -> news via Facebook, television, news sites

Conclusion News coverage does influence how people look at the news. Especially with respect to most important problems Facebook also an important tool for the political parties -> especially for base Traditional news media also important for the masses

BREAK! Thanks you for your attention. If you want to know more: http://nieuwsmonitor.org nelruigrok@nieuwsmonitor.org