The essence of data in climate change response. Parliamentary Colloquium: Unpacking The COP21 Paris Agreement Implications for the Nation OLD ASSEMBLY CHAMBER: PARLIAMENT 28 October 2016 Mr. Mnikeli Ndabambi South African Weather Service www.weathersa.co.za

Content Introduction Purpose Mandate Key Infrastructure Climate change challenges SAWS strategic context SAWS Climate change and Response initiatives Forecasting Services Products and Services Research and Development Development Capacity and Capability Enabling Climate Change response Conclusion

PURPOSE To brief the members on:- Data availability. Data usage and value add. Share products derived from weather and climatological data in response to Climate Variability and Change

SAWS MANDATE Public Good Commercial Established as an AGENCY on 15 June 2001 Two distinct Services: Public Good Commercial Funded by Government Grant User-pays principle applies Tailor made products & services Forecasts & Warnings

“A weather-SMART nation.” CREATING A WEATHER-SMART NATION VISION “A weather-SMART nation.” SAWS wants to achieve an end-state where citizens, communities and business sectors are weather resilient because they are able to use the information, products and services provided by SAWS optimally. S – Safe M – More informed A – Alert R – Resilient/Ready T – Timeous

SAWS PRODUCTS & SERVICES Training Centre Research & Develop Climate Services Met Authority Technical Services Forecasting Air Quality Satellite Centre of Excellence SA Air Quality Info System ICAO compliance (Oversight) Manufacturing & assembling Aviation services Observation research Observation network Now & short-term forecasting National climate data bank New product development Marine services Climate Change Long-term forecasting & outlooks Global Atmospheric Watch General forecasting Climate information SADC specialized Met centre Climate services (NFCS)

OBSERVATIONS 1277 214 141 25 24 14 10 Rainfall stations Automatic weather stations 141 Automatic rainfall stations 25 Climate stations 24 Lightning sensors 14 Radars 10 Upper air stations 20 Weather Offices

SAWS STRATEGIC CONTEXT South African Weather Services Value Chain – Enabling climate change response Networks Data Collection Science Processing & Data Management Content Value Add Devices Dissemination Strategy Weather – ready Nation Scientific Capability R&D and Innovation towards establishing a robust Agro-Hydrometeorology competence Infrastructure Recapitalisation Human Capital Development Develop Products and services enabling Government, sectors, industries, communities…… Develop and facilitate Implementation of National Framework for Climate Services in partnership with various stakeholders Socio-economic benefits study Capacity Development Infrastructure upgrade, expansion and optimisation Improved service delivery to the agricultural sector – adoption of new products and applications Skills Development National Education Plan

DATA AVAILABLITY AND VALUE ADD SAWS has 154 years historical data (National Climate Data Bank)* Climatic means (averages) including: daily, monthly and annuals have been established and can be made available if a user needs to compare current values with the long term means Using the long series of rainfall data, mean dperiods of onset and cessation of the rain seasons have been established and the dates of earliest onset and cessations established. i.e. with appropriate standard deviations e.g expect late rainfall onsets with short duration,

VALUE ADD-CONTINUES SAWS is able to give the farmer (user), the risks associated with dry/wet spells of given lengths if he plants early, at time of onset and late onset This information is of use to plan whether to intercrop. Whereas most of SAWS’ forecasts indicate terminologies such as “above Normal, Below Normal and Normal” with assistance of the Agrometeorological services, the same may be quantified for use in yield estimation and water management. SAWS has application which use meteorological and climatological data to monitor crop development.

BENEFITS: AGRICULTURAL EXAMPLE

Weather Forecasts and Warnings 0 – 6 Hours 24 -72 Hours 4 -10 Days 11- 30 Days 30 Days– 2 Years > 2 Years Observations Numerical Weather Prediction Global Climate Model Satellite Radar SAFFG Synops LDN Upper Air Regional (SADC) Local (SA) Mesoscale Ensembles MOS Coupled: GCM+ Ocean Medium range (ECMWF) Ensembles (NCEP) Multi-model Ensembles Ocean Models -GCM Ensembles Outlook: Rainfall & temperature anomalies Agro-meteorology advisory service Advisories: Potential hazardous weather events Rain and temperature anomalies Rainfall and temperature anomalies Rainfall and Temperature Tendencies Climate Change Watches & Warnings: Severe weather Daily weather elements Reducing the vulnerability of society, crops and livestock to climate-related hazards - air pollution, heat, floods, drought, lightning detection and diseases Build necessary skills in the agro sector that enables better decisions – offering training to farmers and ensuring protection of assets Maximising the utilisation of existing weather and climate service infrastructure Improving coordination, and strengthening and building infrastructure where needed – strategically positioning observation network Benefits Products Tools 6-24 Hours Forecast

Weather monitoring: 2015/16 El Niño droughts are associated with an eastward shift of tropical rain bearing clouds from the tropics. At the same time, higher pressures develop over South Africa, with descending warm and dry air at the surface.

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

DROUGHT MONITORING INDICTORS (DMI)

Rainfall Projections

National Temperature Scenarios In the business-as-usual case (i.e. no mitigation), warming continues throughout the 21st century the inland areas are projected to warm by more than 4°C above the 1986-2005 reference period by 2071-2100 (centered on 2085, right panel)

: Web Portal Three applications: Customised weather-related web portals with security access, provides data and applications via the Internet to support weather sensitive industries to reduce water related challenges – www.hydronet.co.za accessed through the SAWS website Three applications: Weather Stations At a click of a button - direct access to actual (real-time) and historical rainfall information SAWS observation network data for planning & reporting purposes Amount of rainfall at a specific location per hour / per day / per time series RainMap To optimize the proactive scheduling of weather sensitive activities to manage water resources Reduce the need for additional rain gauges Easily accessible information as quality checks improve the data Personalised dashboards linked to own strategic indicators Weather Forecast Weather forecasts for specific locations over different time periods Improves risk related planning Reduces exposure to possible impacts of forecasted factors

POWER OF DATA MANIPULATION-e.g Provincial Scenarios

Key Message (Eastern Cape Province) Variable Message Temperature Under aggressive mitigation, the average 21st century warming is about 0.7°C [0.4 – 1.7] in all seasons Under Business-as-usual scenario, warming increases progressively in the 21st century from about 0.9°C [0.6 – 1.5] between 2016-2045 to 2.2°C [1.7 – 3.2] during 2046-2075 and 3.3°C [2.6 – 4.9] towards the end of the century Precipitation Winter precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 15% [4 – 26%] towards the end of the century (2071 – 2100) under the business-as-usual scenario Models are uncertain in terms of precipitation, with some models projecting an increase in precipitation and some projecting a decrease

Key Message (Free State Province) Variable Message Temperature Under aggressive mitigation, the average 21st century temperature stabilize around 1.5°C [0.5 – 2.3] in all seasons Under Business-as-usual scenario, warming increases progressively in the 21st century from about 1.2°C [0.7 – 1.9] between 2016-2045 to 2.7°C [1.9 – 4.1] during 2046-2075 and 4.2°C [3.2 – 6.2] towards the end of the century Precipitation Winter precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 20% [8 – 28%] towards the end of the century (2071–2100) under the business-as-usual scenario The range is very wide during other seasons, with some models projecting an increase in precipitation and some projecting a decrease

CONCLUSION Continue to enable Government, sectors, industries, etc Provision of sector-specific products and services Provision of advisory services to industry and key decision makers Continued monitoring of drought, water resources and climate change impacts Collaboration with Key sector players Capacity building Train users on Interpretation, usage and pro-active response to weather and climate information Infrastructure operation and maintenance Availability of human capital skilled in specialised fields e.g. meteorology, climatology, agro-meteorology, Hydro-meteorology Infrastructure network expansion and optimisation Improved prediction and accuracy Strategic positioning of infrastructure – geo-specific information

Thank You! Questions?