Role of Fuels and Vehicle Technologies in achieving sustainable transport Subash Dhar UNEP DTU Partnership Key Challenges faced by Developing Countries Technology Needs for Sustainable Transport Global Targets on fuel economy (GFEI) e.g. technology and policy innovation Expert Group Meeting on “Special Needs and Challenges in Developing Countries for Achieving Sustainable Transport” New York May 10-11, 2016

Challenges for Sustainable Development Mobility & Accessibility (SDG 4.2 & 11.2) Mobility Demand is low Motorisation is low Air Pollution (SDG 3.9) 100 most polluted cities ? Impacts 3.7 million deaths globally Country Trip Rate Trip Length (km) Total Travel Time (min) Denmark 2.90 13.60 57.10 UK 2.66 11.71 59.34 US 3.79 16.20 60.00 India 1.36 5.07 - Developing countries face multiple challenges from transport Enhancing Mobility & Accessibility is essential to achieve the SDGs SDG 4.2 - Access to education and opportunities, SDG 11.2 - Affordable transport Comparing with developed countries- motorisation is low , trip rate and trip lengths are low and therefore a higher demand is inevitable. Also since motorisation is low a rapid growth in motorised transport is likely Despite low motorisation accidents are high and therefore increasing motorisation can complicate situation for safety Source: Dhar, Pathak & Shukla, 2015 "Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India"

Challenges for Climate Climate Change (SDG 13) 4 GT/yr by 2030 (IEA, 2015) Co-benefits Aligning Sustainable Development and Climate Goals Mitigation Wedges for Transport: India Climate Change is a global challenge and transport important sector due to its growing contribution to CO2 emissions Therefore there is a need to align sustainable development goals with climate goals Needs a country specific analysis Source : Dhar & Shukla, 2015. "Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India"

Technology Needs for Transport TNA Countries 40% prioritised transport Vehicle & Fuel Technologies Alternative fuels Fuel Efficient Vehicles - LDV/HDV Natural Gas Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV & HEV) Electric Vehicles (EV) etc Given the challenges and improtance to SDG Transport has been prioritised by around 40% of countries as a priority sector within the TNA project A wide variety of technologies would be needed However vehicles and fuel technologies would play an important part Source: Technology Database, TNA Project

Kaya Framework Before we turn into vehicles anf fuel technologies let us look at where they fit in Kaya Framework provides a simple tool for looking at this To address the challenges described there is a need to work from both supply and demand side Fuel and Vehicles form a part of supply side interventions Can include alternative drive train technologies or alternative fuels It can also be the same technology but smaller size. The role of policy for catalyzing the changes is quite important

Global Fuel Economy Initiative GFEI is a initiative that provides policy framework for advancing technology changes in vehicles GFEI links with G20 Energy Efficiency action plan, SE4ALL, Paris Climate Agreement GFEI promotes and supports a doubling of fuel economy of global fleet Target to double the efficiency of the global fleet by 2050…. all new vehicles by 2030 Rates of improvement faster in OECD than developing countries and there is a covergence

Vehicle Size Trends Source: GFEI, 2016, Fuel State of the World, 2016 A major reason is behavioural change due to policies on fuel economy In general most OECD countries have policies for fuel economy and therefore you are witnessing change in car sizes Preference for medium /small sized cars is increasing in OECD however an opposite trend is emerging for developing countries New Registered Vehicles Source: GFEI, 2016, Fuel State of the World, 2016

Drive Train Technologies Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Spark Ignition (Petrol) Compression Ignition (Diesel) Alternative Drive Train Technologies Battery and Electric Motor Vehicles Hybrid Fuel Cells Micro turbines Catenary electric motors (Tram / Metro ) However behavioural shifts alone in vehicle size not sufficient and improvements in drive train are essential These improvements can be within the ICE engine drive trains that is the current normal Or it could be achieved by a shift to alternative drive train technologies

Potentional Improvement in ICE ICE engine drive train offer potential for improvement and in all upto 50% improvements can be delivered. These improvements can be achieved through smaller engine sizes direct injection of fuels improvements to clutch weight reduction Source: Argonne National Laboratory, Automotive OEM press releases, Booz Allen Hamilton Technology Center, Booz & Company analysis

Alternative Drive Train Technologies Battery Electric vehicles Hybrid Petrol Plug in Hybrids Fuel Cells Drive Range 100 - 160 km for cars, 60 km for 2 wheelers Same as petrol cars 20 - 50 km on battery alone, remaining using ICE Drive Train Electric Motor ICE, Electric Motor Fuel Cell, Electric Motor Market Status Dominant technology for 2 wheelers in China, EV 4 W emerging a strong contender More than 5.8 million vehicles globally sold till end of 2012 Few hundred globally Energy consumption per pkm (w.r.t to a petrol engine) ** 70-80% lower 11-22% lower 20-60% lower 55% - 70% lower Typical Fuel Electricity Petrol Electricity / Petrol /Diesel Hydrogen However far more reductions can be achieved through changing over to alternative drive train technologies The potential for improvements and their impacts on sustainable development vary country specific analysis can help in this ** IEA, 2009 Transport Energy & CO2; Kobayachi et. al., 2009 Energy efficiency technologies for road 11 vehicles. Energy Efficiency 2, 125–137; Plotkin et. al., 2009 Multi‐path transportation futures study : vehicle 12 characterization and scenario analyses

Case Study - India EVs From our analysis of EVs in India we found the following Aligning climate and EV specific policies can deliver the maximum improvements in both reduction of Co2 and local pollution EVs policies alone will not produce any benefits for climate regional replication and outreach Source: Shukla, et. al., 2014, Electric Vehicles Scenarios and Roadmap for India "Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India"

E Mobility Program Focus : Developing and transitional countries 4 work streams: 1- electric 2 & 3 wheelers 2- electric bus fleets 3- national policies for electric vehicles 4- regional replication and outreach Key issue is the energy content per unit of weight Source of production

Conclusions Fuels and Vehicles essential for sustainable transport Aligning climate and sustainable development goals can help in achieve more for both Alignment of National and local policies Policies are the key issue