Does the future matter more for wellbeing than the past Does the future matter more for wellbeing than the past? Experimental evidence and the importance of perspective Dan Weijers, university of Waikato California state University, Sacramento, 11 April 2017

A tip of the hat and then some Peter Unger NYU Experimental philosophy on what really matters

The value of lives Which would you prefer? If each of your years are happy, would you rather live for 30 or 60 years? If each of their years are happy, would you rather good people got to live 30 or 60 years? For happy lives, longer is better

Judging a long-lost relatives’ life in the moment Imagine that you hear you have a long-lost relative in a remote location on the other side of the world. You know that you will never get to meet or be in contact with this person, but you are currently pondering what their life is like. Assuming that the stipulations about their happiness and length of life (below) are true, and that they are too remote for you to ever be in contact with them, which of the following options would be the best for your long-lost relative? The long-lost relative has lived 70 happy years so far, and will live 1 more happy year. The long-lost relative has lived 40 happy years so far, and will live 30 more happy years.

Judging a long-lost relatives’ life in the moment Imagine that you hear you have a long-lost relative in a remote location on the other side of the world. You know that you will never get to meet or be in contact with this person, but you are currently pondering what their life is like. Assuming that the stipulations about their happiness and length of life (below) are true, and that they are too remote for you to ever be in contact with them, which of the following options would be the best for your long-lost relative? The long-lost relative has lived 70 happy years so far, and will live 1 more happy year. (82%) The long-lost relative has lived 40 happy years so far, and will live 30 more happy years. (18%) We seem to value past happy years at least equally with future ones

Judging your life in the moment Imagine that you awake in a hospital after a minor surgery. You feel groggy and confused because a side-effect of the anesthetic has caused you to temporarily forget the details of your life. The surgery was a complete success. You are now in excellent health and will remain so until your death. The doctor tells you that your life so far has been happy each year, and each of your future years will also be happy. Thinking only about what is good for you, and assuming the claims about your health and happiness (above) are true, what would you prefer to hear? You have lived 70 happy years so far, and you will live 1 more happy year. You have lived 40 happy years so far, and you will live 30 more happy years.

Judging your life in the moment Imagine that you awake in a hospital after a minor surgery. You feel groggy and confused because a side-effect of the anesthetic has caused you to temporarily forget the details of your life. The surgery was a complete success. You are now in excellent health and will remain so until your death. The doctor tells you that your life so far has been happy each year, and each of your future years will also be happy. Thinking only about what is good for you, and assuming the claims about your health and happiness (above) are true, what would you prefer to hear? You have lived 70 happy years so far, and you will live 1 more happy year. (14%) You have lived 40 happy years so far, and you will live 30 more happy years. (86%) Now we seem to value future happy years more than past ones

The puzzle So, which is correct? Are past happy years just as valuable as future happy years, or Are future happy years more valuable than past happy years? Are we wrong in our judgments about our lives or about the lives of others? Or can both somehow be right?

A bias towards the future, a rational privileging of the future, or…? PARFIT: we have a bias towards the future MOST OTHERS: the past is the past, we should focus on the future US (previously): we have a bias against the past Now: there are two ways to think about the value of a life Thought experiments can expose these ways of thinking

What about short-term cases?

Someone you care about Imagine that someone you care about, but have not seen for a long while, lives in a remote location on the other side of the world. You know that you will never get to meet them again, but you are currently pondering how they are doing. Assuming that the other aspects of their life are similar in each case, including long-term health outcomes, which of the following options would be the best for the person you care about? The person has suffered severely with an illness for 10 hours today, and, now being cured, will not suffer at all tomorrow. The person has not suffered today, and will suffer severely with an illness for 1 hour tomorrow, before being cured.

Someone you care about’s Surgery Again we seem to value past happy years as much as future happy years Imagine that someone you care about, but have not seen for a long while, lives in a remote location on the other side of the world. You know that you will never get to meet them again, but you are currently pondering how they are doing. Assuming that the other aspects of their life are similar in each case, including long-term health outcomes, which of the following options would be the best for the person you care about? The person has suffered severely with an illness for 10 hours today, and, now being cured, will not suffer at all tomorrow. (12%) The person has not suffered today, and will suffer severely with an illness for 1 hour tomorrow, before being cured. (88%)

Your surgery When you wake up, you do remember a long period of suffering yesterday. But you cannot remember how long the period was. You ask your nurse whether your operation is completed, or whether further surgery needs to be done. She says that she knows the facts about both you and another patient, but that she cannot remember which facts apply to whom. She can tell you only that the following is true. You may be the patient who had his five hours of pain yesterday, in which case, your operation is over. You may instead be the patient who had his two hours of pain yesterday, in which case, your operation is incomplete, and you shall have another hour of pain later today. You ask the nurse to find out which is true. Recalling that the surgery is always successful, and thinking about only what would be best for you, what would you like to hear from the nurse? You suffered five hours yesterday, and you won’t suffer later today. You suffered two hours yesterday, and you’ll suffer for one hour later today.

Now we seem to value future happy years more than past ones again Your surgery When you wake up, you do remember a long period of suffering yesterday. But you cannot remember how long the period was. You ask your nurse whether your operation is completed, or whether further surgery needs to be done. She says that she knows the facts about both you and another patient, but that she cannot remember which facts apply to whom. She can tell you only that the following is true. You may be the patient who had his five hours of pain yesterday, in which case, your operation is over. You may instead be the patient who had his two hours of pain yesterday, in which case, your operation is incomplete, and you shall have another hour of pain later today. You ask the nurse to find out which is true. Recalling that the surgery is always successful, and thinking about only what would be best for you, what would you like to hear from the nurse? You suffered five hours yesterday, and you won’t suffer later today. (84%) You suffered two hours yesterday, and you’ll suffer for one hour later today. (16%) Now we seem to value future happy years more than past ones again

Your mother’s surgery You have just arrived at the hospital to see how your dear mother is getting on. Your mother has just woken up, and recalls a long period of suffering yesterday. But, she cannot remember how long the period was. You ask the nurse whether the operation is completed, or whether further surgery needs to be done. She says that she knows the facts about both your mother and another patient, but that she cannot remember which facts apply to whom. She can tell you only that the following is true. Your mother may be the patient who had her five hours of pain yesterday, in which case, her operation is over. Your mother may instead be the patient who had her two hours of pain yesterday, in which case, her operation is incomplete, and she shall have another hour of pain later today. You ask the nurse to find out which is true. Recalling that the surgery is always successful, and thinking about only what would be best for your mother, what would you like to hear from the nurse? Your mother suffered five hours yesterday, and she won’t suffer later today. Your mother suffered two hours yesterday, and she’ll suffer for one hour later today.

Your mother’s surgery You have just arrived at the hospital to see how your dear mother is getting on. Your mother has just woken up, and recalls a long period of suffering yesterday. But, she cannot remember how long the period was. You ask the nurse whether the operation is completed, or whether further surgery needs to be done. She says that she knows the facts about both your mother and another patient, but that she cannot remember which facts apply to whom. She can tell you only that the following is true. Your mother may be the patient who had her five hours of pain yesterday, in which case, her operation is over. Your mother may instead be the patient who had her two hours of pain yesterday, in which case, her operation is incomplete, and she shall have another hour of pain later today. You ask the nurse to find out which is true. Recalling that the surgery is always successful, and thinking about only what would be best for your mother, what would you like to hear from the nurse? Your mother suffered five hours yesterday, and she won’t suffer later today. (81%) Your mother suffered two hours yesterday, and she’ll suffer for one hour later today. (19%) It seems that you put yourself in her shoes, and made your choice with the future in mind

Focus on perspective now

Working out who to give the golden ticket to (start) Imagine that a woman died recently, and you are organizing her posthumous affairs. The woman’s will includes the instructions to liquidate all of her assets, except for her golden ticket, and to use the money to cover her expenses and donate any remainder to Oxfam. The golden ticket is currently blank. Once a name has been written on the non-refundable and non-transferable golden ticket, it allows the named bearer of the ticket entry to the most fantastic show on Earth—a strictly invite-only one-off event that will occur in a month’s time. The will stipulates that you should give the ticket to one of the woman’s two only distant relatives. Specifically, the ticket should be given to the distant relative that has, all things considered and in your judgment, the worse life.

Working out who to give the golden ticket to (end) The first relative has lived happily each year for 70 years, and will enjoy 1 more happy year. The second relative has lived happily each year for 40 years, and will enjoy 30 more happy years. Both relatives have been and will be in good health every year of their life. To carry out your duty, you have to decide which relative has the worse life, write their name on the ticket, and send it to them. Assuming that the claims about the deceased woman’s relatives’ future years are true, which relative has the worse life and should receive the ticket? The first relative, who’s lived happily for 70 years, and will live happily for another 1, has the worse life and should receive the ticket. The second relative, who’s lived happily for 40 years, and will live happily for another 30, has the worse life and should receive the ticket.

Working out who to give the golden ticket to (end) The first relative has lived happily each year for 70 years, and will enjoy 1 more happy year. The second relative has lived happily each year for 40 years, and will enjoy 30 more happy years. Both relatives have been and will be in good health every year of their life. To carry out your duty, you have to decide which relative has the worse life, write their name on the ticket, and send it to them. Assuming that the claims about the deceased woman’s relatives’ future years are true, which relative has the worse life and should receive the ticket? The first relative, who’s lived happily for 70 years, and will live happily for another 1, has the worse life and should receive the ticket. (50%) The second relative, who’s lived happily for 40 years, and will live happily for another 30, has the worse life and should receive the ticket. (50%) These results are inconclusive, but some evidence for both perspectives

But which is right? Notice that the two perspectives give different results in each case Is there a correct perspective in any of the cases?