V. Vionnet1, L. Queno1, I. Dombrowski Etchevers2, M. Lafaysse1, Y

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Presentation transcript:

Snowpack modeling in the French mountains driven by short-range high-resolution weather forecasts V. Vionnet1, L. Queno1, I. Dombrowski Etchevers2, M. Lafaysse1, Y. Seity2, M. Dumont1, E. Bazile2, F. Karbou1 CNRM, CEN, Météo France-CNRS, Grenoble, France CNRM, Météo France-CNRS, Toulouse, France SURFEX Users Workshop (27th Feb. 2017; Toulouse, France)

Presentation Pyrenees French Alps Operational snowpack modeling in the French mountains Experimental setup Seasonal snowfall Snowpack simulations Conclusions and perspectives Toulouse Pyrenees French Alps

Snowpack modeling in the French mountains 1- Meteorological analysis and forecasting system SAFRAN NWP system ARPEGE (15 km) Meteorological forcing at the massif scale per 300-m elevation bands Observations (AWS, manual station, …) Massif ( ~ 800 km²) Durand et al. (1999) 2- Detailed snowpack model SURFEX/Crocus North South Air temperature Rel. humidity Windspeed Incoming solar radiation longwave radiation Rainfall Snowfall Vionnet et al. (2012) Applications: Avalanche hazard forecasting Hydrological forecasting Snowpack simulations per: - elevations - aspects - slopes

Towards a new modeling system Limitations of the current system Haute-Bigorre range (French Pyrenees) Pic du Midi Vignemale Limitations of the current system Conceptual representation of the topography Homogeneity of meteorological parameters within a massif Captures the mean properties of snowpack but not the spatial variability Alternative forcing: the high-resolution NWP system AROME Operational since December 2008 over France (including the Alps and the Pyrenees) Horizontal resolution 2.5 km (1.3 km since April 2015), 4 runs per day (00, 06, 12 and 18Z) What is the ability of AROME to drive continuous seasonal snowpack simulations?

Context of the study French Alps Pyrénées 2 domains: French Alps and Pyrénées (resolution 2.5 km) Snowpack model SURFEX/Crocus: operational version; 50 layers (branch V8_lafaysse) 4 years of simulations: August 2010 to July 2014 2 types of atmospheric forcing: Successive daily AROME forecasts (06-29h from 00Z) SAFRAN reanalysis interpolated over the 2.5-km grid French Alps Pyrénées

Seasonal snowfall (1) Overall: larger snowfall amount with AROME compared to SAFRAN But: strong spatial structure of differences

Seasonal snowfall (2) Regions of significant differences: Windward and leeward sides of mountains ranges (e.g. Vercors) High-altitude regions ( approx. above 1700 m)

Snowpack evolution at Col de Porte (1325 m) Good agreement between simulations and observations Winter 2010/11: 2 errors of precipitation phase for AROME Snow depth bias: 15 cm (AROME); 13 cm (SAFRAN)

Snowpack scores Global scores (Alps: 79 stations; Pyrénées: 83 stations) Score Bias (cm) Std Dev. of Errors (cm) Forcing AROME SAFRAN Alps 40 18 50 37 Pyrénées 55 22 70 57 Overestimation of snow depth by AROME-Crocus Spatial variability of bias for AROME-Crocus (Pyrénées) Positive bias decreasing from West to East Max. positive bias for stations exposed to NW-W flows from the Atlantic ocean

Daily snow depth changes Categorical study over the Pyrenees ΔHTN = HTNJ – HTNJ-1 Ablation/Settling Accumulation Atlantic foothills Accumulation Underestimation of strong snow accumulation Except for the Atlantic foothills Ablation Underestimation of strong snow depth decrease : wind-induced erosion (not simulated by the model) strong melting Main explanation for the positive bias

Snowpack spatial variability Winter 2011/12: strong contrast of snow cover between France and Spain Strong influence of NW-W flows Seasonal evolution Similarity index: Jaccard index Better representation of the spatial snow cover distribution by AROME-Crocus

Conclusions and perspectives AROME forcing brings valuable information for snowpack modeling: Snowpack spatial variability Daily snow accumulation But: overestimation of snow depth: AROME-Crocus, purely based on AROME forecast, fails at improving snow depth scores compared to SAFRAN-Crocus including a precipitation analysis at the massif scale. On-going work: Latest version of AROME: horizontal resolution 1.3 km Distributed meteorological analysis system : MESCAN for precipitation (guess from AROME) (coll. GMAP, GMME) Satellite products for incoming LW and SW Perspective: data assimilation directly into the snowpack model (e.g. MODIS reflectance) More details: - Quéno et al. (TC, 2016) - Vionnet et al. (JHM, 2016)

Thank you for your attention! thanks.JPG