What do we learn in Natural Hazards Course? Presenter: Dr. Yuri Gorokhovich, Lehman College Concept of multi-hazard approach Geographic Information Systems techniques Making maps and working with digital data

Why Studying Natural Hazards Is Important? As population continues to grow, hazards, disasters, and catastrophes become more common. Acts of God Definitions of hazards, disasters and catastrophes: A natural hazard is any natural process that poses a threat to human life or property. Examples. A disaster occurs when a hazard, such as a flood or earthquake, inflicts loss of life and property in over a limited time span in a defined area. Examples. A catastrophe is a massive disaster, typically with many deaths, requiring a large input of time and money to rectify. Examples. Acts of Man

Disaster stages and lessons: Precursors: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other natural and anthropogenic (wars, deforestation, etc.) influences Early warning Preparedness: Directed operations, command, control Education, scientific research and monitoring, building local capacity Response: Management and Planning Building resilience, decrease vulnerability Post-disaster recovery Post-disaster analysis and conclusions: Mitigation and prevention Illustrated version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ya0sO5pxeZk

Global Distribution of Natural Hazards (1993-2002) Role of Internal and External (blue) processes Source: WMO, http://www.uncosa.unvienna.org/docs/iamos/2005/open_session_presentations/WMO_files/frame.htm#slide0138.htm

Geologic factors of Natural Processes The rock cycle may be considered a worldwide earth-material recycling process driven by Earth’s internal heat, Driven by solar energy, the hydrologic cycle operates by way of evaporation, precipitation, surface runoff, and subsurface flow. Biogeochemical cycles can be described as the transfer of chemical elements through a series of storage compartments or reservoirs, such as air or vegetation.

The Tectonic Cycle Hazards: Volcanoes, Earthquakes; Long - term: Climate change Involves the creation, movement, and destruction of tectonic plates through geologic process driven by forces deep within Earth.

The Hydrologic Cycle Hazards: Climate change, Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Floods, Droughts, Wildfires Solar energy drives movement of water between atmosphere and oceans and continents.

Biogeochemical Cycles Hazards: Climate change, ecological disbalance The major natural biochemical cycles include the carbon, nitrogen, and phosphate cycles Plants such as trees and algae undergo the photosynthesis reaction where carbon dioxide and water in the presence of sunlight are converted to organic materials and oxygen. Fish use metabolism where oxygen and organic materials - other small fish or algae - as food is converted to carbon dioxide, water, and energy. Bacteria in water, as well as land, also undergo metabolism and use oxygen and decompose organic wastes as food to convert to carbon dioxide, water, and energy. By products in the decomposition of organic waste are nitrates and phosphates.

Death and Damage Caused by Natural Hazards

Role of History in Understanding Hazards A better understanding and more accurate prediction of natural processes come by integrating historic and prehistoric information, present conditions, and recent past events, including land-use changes. Historical events provide the basis for preparedness Current information collected by monitoring provides the basis for early warning Historical analysis of majority of types of disasters shows that magnitude of a hazardous event is inversely related to its frequency

Role of History in Understanding Hazards: Santorini Volcanic Complex in Greece Population: 13,600 people Tourism adds 1,000,000 per year Housing flourishes

Role of History in Understanding Hazards: Santorini Volcanic Complex Periodicity of destructive events similar to Minoan eruption: 20,000 years Minoan eruption (1640 BCE): no victims Now: No emergency plan, no coordination between emergency response units. Training? Preparedness? Possible eruption: similar to any post-Minoan eruption Possible outcome: ???? Why???

Climate Change Hazard: Was Earth an “ice” or “hot house”? Learning from historical data http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm

Five fundamental concepts establish a philosophical framework for studying natural hazards. Hazards are predictable from scientific evaluation. However, this does not include the prediction of exact time and geographic location. Risk analysis is an important component in our understanding of the effects of hazardous processes. Linkages exist between various natural hazards as well as between hazards and the physical environment. Multi-hazard concept. Hazardous events that previously produced disasters are now producing catastrophes. Consequences of hazards can be minimized

Magnitude and Frequency of Hazardous Events Fatalities per event Cumulative number of events per year Comparison of natural disaster fatalities in the United States. Cumulative size-frequency distributions for annual earthquake, flood, hurricane, and tornado fatalities. In addition to demonstrating linear behavior over 2 to 3 orders of magnitude in loss, these data group into two families. Earthquakes and tornadoes are associated with relatively flat slopes (D=0.4 - 0.6); while floods and tornadoes have steeper slopes (D=1.3 - 1.4). Source: Barton and Nishenko. Natural Disasters—Forecasting Economic and Life Losses. USGS Facts Sheet. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/natural-disasters/index.html

Human Population Growth and its relation to Natural Hazards Population growth has negative and positive effects: Land use change; depletion of resources; social disparity Intellectual development (do we use it wisely ?) 

5. Consequences of Hazards Can Be Minimized Move from reactive response: Recovery and restoration To an anticipatory response: Avoiding and adjusting to hazards: Land-use planning Building codes Insurance Evacuation Disaster preparedness Artificial control

Benefits of Hazards Natural hazards have nature’s service function Examples: Flooding provides nutrients for soil. Landslides form dams to create lakes and habitat. Volcanoes create new land and enrich soil. Volcanoes contribute gases to the atmosphere and produced first water on the planet. Hurricanes destroy old forest, enrich soil, replenish aquifers Erosional processes (flooding, river erosion, etc.) help enrich soil, provide mineral resources and sustains life