School of Business Administration Software Engineering Spring Term 2017 Marymount University School of Business Administration Professor Suydam Week 15

Agenda for Week 15 Final Exam Preparation Quiz4 Preparation MP4 Discussion Software Disasters

Final Exam – When, Where, What

Quiz4 Calculations Review 6d. Consider a software project that you have estimated at 2 KLOC in size. You believe that it should be in organic mode and that the arithmetic product of the 15 cost-drivers or PROD (f ’s) is 1.2. What is the estimated effort in person-months? Ans: Effort = 3.2 x (2)1.05 x 1.2 = approximately 7.8 person months Page: 277-279  7. Using function point methodology, compute the unadjusted function point for an average project that has 10 external inputs, 7 external outputs, 5 external inquiries, 3 internal logical files, and 4 external interface files.   Ans: The unadjusted function point, UFP = (10 x 4) + (7 x 5) + (5 x 4 ) + (3 x 10) +( 4 x 7) = 153 Page: 280 8. Assume that the total complexity factor for the software project in the previous question is 1.1 and the productivity figure is 20 function points per person-month. What is the function point for the project? What is the estimated effort in person-months for the project? Ans: The function point, FP = 153 x 1.1 = 168.3; Estimated Effort = 168.3 / 20 = 8.4 person-months Page: 281

MP4 Discussion Any “F” grades for CS4 or MP3, RESUBMIT BEFORE MP4 due date. Errors to watch for in MP4 Update cover information and revision history Update automated table of contents – make sure work added (e.g., App C&D) has headings formatted as “Heading” Don’t mix font types (e.g., Calibri vs Times New Roman) Fix all errors noted previously in MP1-MP3 Introduce and briefly explain any figures inserted in document. Before Zipping and submission, make sure all documents (SRS w/App A-D, MS Project Plan, and Excel Budget) are in a folder named “it210YourLastNameMP4”

Software Disasters -- Murphy’s law “Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.”

Software in our lives, then and now Then - I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. - IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, 1943  Now Medical (processing and analysis, Computer Aided Surgery, other various equipment) Financial and business (banking, trading) Transportation (trains, cars, planes, auto-pilot) Home (security / fire) Leisure Military

Disasters at the people (not company) level Panama Radiation Therapy Overdose (2000) 18 deaths, 10 injured Double counting, Overreliance on automation Various military vehicle crashes Chinook Helicopter Crash, 29 deaths (1994): uncommanded run up and run down of the engines (analysis shows 486 anomalies in 18% of the code) V-22 Osprey Crash, 4 deaths (2000): software causes aircraft to decelerate when pilot attempts to reset software Failed missile interception, 28 deaths, 94 injured (1991): system clock Y2K (2000) Abbreviating year with 2 digits $300,000,000,000 cost ($300 Billion)

Toyota Anti-Lock Brake recalls (2010) ~150,000 vehicles recalled Reason: 1 second lag 60 mph (96.5 km/h)  ~90 feet (27.5m) Enough to cause accidents Bad Public Relations $1.1 Billion in repairs $770-880 Million in lost sales Endangering people’s lives Toyota "Moving forward"... even when you don't want to.

Stock Market Flash Crash (2010) Dow Jones stock market (very closely watched U.S. benchmark indices tracking targeted stock market activity). Biggest one-day market decline, 998.5 points Cost: $1,000,000,000,000 ($1 Trillion) Procter & Gamble, Accenture: shares price down to a $0.01, or up to $100,000. Recovered a large amount of the point drop

Cold War Nuclear Missile False Alarm Very sensitive period Strategy was an immediate nuclear counter-attack to guarantee “Mutually Assured Destruction” How it was mitigated: soldier considered it was a computer error The bug: false alarm created by a rare alignment of sunlight on high-altitude clouds and the satellites’ orbits. Cost: Nuclear World War III

What’s next? Just as Thomas Watson couldn’t guess what was coming up in the next 40 years, it is pretty hard for us to estimate how computers and technology will evolve in the near (and far) future. However, we know for sure that software systems will get MUCH larger and complex, more tasks will be automated, reliance on software will greatly increase.

Conclusion: Your (Our) Role Our responsibility increases as the need for reliability in our system increases Proper process / practices in architecting, managing risks, developing and testing. Good communication between stakeholders