Chapter 5: Monitoring Jobs and Inflation Measures of activity in the labor market Unemployment labor force participation employment-population ratio. Shortcomings of unemployment rate as measure of labor market performance Statistics describing U.S. labor market Prices Measuring the price level: the consumer price index Why inflation is a problem Winners and losers Shortcomings of CPI as measure of price level

Unemployment Why is unemployment a problem? Measuring unemployment Lost production and income Lost human capital Measuring unemployment The Current Population Survey Monthly survey Approximately 60,000 households Used to monitor employment, hours, wages Primary source of data for unemployment rates

Labor market definitions Civilian Non-institutionalized Working Age Population Excludes military and institutionalized Working age is 16+ Unemployed Without work but has made specific efforts to find a job within the previous four weeks Waiting to be called back to a job from which he or she has been laid off Waiting to start a new job within 30 days

Labor Force Measures: April 2017 U.S. population: 325.0 million Civilian Non-institutionalized Working age (16+) population: 254.6 m. Civilian Labor Force 160.2 Employed 153.2 m. Unemployed 7.0 m. Out of labor force 94.4 m. Not in Civilian Non-Institutionalized Population 70.4 m.

Labor market statistics

Employment ratio is more cyclical than labor force participation rate.

Unemployment as a measure of labor utilization. Imperfect measure because Excludes some underutilized Underemployed e.g. part-time workers who want full-time work Discouraged workers People who want jobs but quit searching due to lack of job opportunities Some unemployment is “natural” Even when economy is operating at capacity, there are new entrants who must search for jobs In 2008, more than 3 million new workers entered the labor force and more than 2.5 million workers retired in U.S. economy.

Alternative measures of labor underutilization U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate) U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Types of Unemployment Frictional Structural Cyclical unemployment that arises from normal labor market turnover (entry, re-entry, etc.) Affected by UI generosity, demographics Structural unemployment created by changes in technology and foreign competition that change the skills needed to perform jobs or the locations of jobs Cyclical Fluctuating unemployment over the business cycle Temporary loss of jobs associated with a recession

Mary decides to quit her current job and move to California to start looking for work. Mary is experiencing Frictional unemployment Structural unemployment Cyclical unemployment 10

A group of welders lose their jobs because the auto manufacturers purchased robots to do the welding. Since these jobs are gone forever, these welders are experiencing Frictional unemployment Structural unemployment Cyclical unemployment 10

Natural Rate of Unemployment is unemployment rate when the economy is at “full employment” only frictional and structural unempl, no cyclical Consistent with stable wages and prices

Unemployment and Full Employment The natural unemployment rate changes over time and is influenced by many factors. Key factors are The age distribution of the population The scale of structural change Institutional rules Minimum wage Unions Labor laws Unemployment insurance

Which of the following would likely lead to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment? More rapid technological change Less generous unemployment insurance A lower minimum wage All of the above 10

Real GDP and Unemployment Potential GDP is the quantity of real GDP produced when the economy is at full employment When the unemployment rate equals the natural rate Output Gap = Real GDP – Potential GDP Positive if unemployment < natural rate Negative if unemployment > natural rate

Inflation Price level average of the prices that people pay for all the goods and services that they buy. Inflation rate percentage change in the price level between time periods. Inflation occurs when the price level is rising persistently. Deflation occurs when inflation is negative and prices are falling persistently

Why inflation is a problem Redistributes income and wealth Borrowers and lenders Employers and workers Taxes that are not indexed for inflation Diverts resources from production Inflation forecasting becomes more important Negotiate shorter contracts more frequently May lead to “barter” if inflation rises to sufficiently high levels (hyperinflation)

Measuring the price level and inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average of the prices paid by urban consumers for a “fixed” basket of consumer goods and services. defined to equal 100 for the reference or base period. Using 1982-84 as the base year, the CPI in December 2009 was 216 prices in December 2009 were 116 percent higher than in 1982-84.

Constructing the CPI Selecting the basket Based on Consumer Expenditure Survey of 2001-02 Basket contains 80,000 goods

Constructing the CPI The monthly price survey Calculating the CPI Every month, BLS employees check the prices of 80,000 goods in 30 metropolitan areas Calculating the CPI Find the cost of the CPI basket at base-period prices. Find the cost of the CPI basket at current-period prices. CPI in t = Cost of bundle at current prices in t X 100 Cost of bundle at base year prices

Base year = 2008 CPI in 2008 = (50/50)*100 =100 (CPI in base year always equals 100 CPI in 2009 = (70/50)*100 =140 Inflation rate between 2008 & 09 percentage change in CPI (140-100)/100 = 40%

The Inflation Rate

Biases in CPI The CPI might overstate the true inflation for four reasons: New goods bias Quality change bias Commodity substitution bias Outlet substitution bias

Consequences of bias in CPI Increases government spending too quickly Social Security, Disability, etc. Approximately 1/3 of federal spending tied to CPI Causes tax revenue to rise too slowly Income tax code is tied to CPI Creates downward bias in estimate of real earnings growth Distorts private contracts tied to CPI Union COLA’s

Other price indexes CPI for different types of consumers Urban consumers Urban workers Different regions, states, metro areas Personal consumption expenditures (chain-type) CPI for specific commodity groups Core CPI Excludes food and energy GDP deflator (covered earlier) Covers prices of all goods & services produced, not just what consumers purchase. Start here Wed.

Adjusting for Inflation: Nominal vs. Real Variables Real Variable in t = Nominal Variable in t X 100 Price Index in t Price index could be CPI or GDP deflator e.g. If Nominal Wage in 2010 is $20 and CPI is 200, Real Wage in 2010 is ($20*100/200=$10) Real variable Adjusts nominal values to reflect prices in base year.