Central Arizona Project 2016 Water Forum Hotel Tucson City Center Ken Seasholes Manager, Resource Planning & Analysis October 27, 2016

Water Use in the Tucson Region CAP Water Groundwater Increased role of CAP in TAMA, reduction in overdraft, large investments, cooperation, etc. But it now means there is a direct link between the local situation and what occurs in the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming…. Source: ADWR, “Tucson AMA Fourth Management Plan”

Lake Mead & Powell Status* Lake Powell 53% Full (12.8 MAF) 3,611’ Lake Mead 37% Full (9.6 MAF) 1,075’ * As of 9/27/16

Lake Mead Elevation Historic Levels, with July 2016 to July 2018 Projection Structural Deficit Equalization 9.0 Release & Conservation If we continue to get “Normal” releases from Lake Powell of 8.23 MAF, but we don’t get those big extra equalization releases, Lake Mead will continue to fall by 12 ft. or more per year, even with the shortage reductions agreed to in the 2007 Interim Guidelines.

Lake Mead Elevation Historic Levels, with July 2016 to July 2018 Projection Structural Deficit Equalization 9.0 Release & Conservation If we continue to get “Normal” releases from Lake Powell of 8.23 MAF, but we don’t get those big extra equalization releases, Lake Mead will continue to fall by 12 ft. or more per year, even with the shortage reductions agreed to in the 2007 Interim Guidelines. 4.3’ above trigger 0.3’ below trigger

The Problem The Colorado River system is in a fragile state due to drought and the “structural deficit” Lake Mead is in critical decline There is uncertainty about actions by the Secretary of Interior if Lake Mead falls below 1025’ CAP’s junior priority concentrates risk

The Risk There is a risk that Arizona, and CAP in particular, will be required to take catastrophically deep reductions, with associated adverse impacts on the society, environment and economy of Arizona. CAP, and other 4th priority users, are at risk of having to take reductions so severe that they imperil Arizona’s entire economy and adversely affect the environment and society. It isn’t a new risk, and it still isn’t likely to occur, but it is too important to ignore. The risk could develop rapidly and in the relatively near future. The risk is driven by a number of factors, but the underlying driver is hydrology - extended drought which has reduced our buffer against bad hydrology

Shortage Management Storage and Recovery Lake Mead Protection - 3.4 MAF of underground storage by Arizona Water Banking Authority Lake Mead Protection - Interstate plan to leave 740 KAF in Lake Mead by end of 2017 - CAP’s share is 345 KAF – will be accomplished by end of 2016 Innovative Conservation - Interstate funding to conserve >75 KAF in the Colorado River - Conservation research grant program CAP has 4 broad strategies to either delay shortage or at least reduce the impacts of shortage to our customers. Augmentation - Weather modification projects in the Upper Basin - Local and binational desalination

Lake Mead Protection 2 Programs: +9’ +1’ Lower Basin Pilot Drought Response Actions MOU Pilot System Conservation Agreement LB MOU 2014 - 2017: CAP = 345 KAF MWD = 300 KAF USBR = 50 KAF SNWA = 45 KAF +9’ 740 KAF = 9 Ft 75 zKAF= 1 ft Phase 1 ($8.25M LB/$2.75M UB) BOR = $3M CAP = $2M SNWA = $2M MWD = $2M Denver Water = $2M Phase 2 ($6.5 M LB/$1.0M UB) BOR = $4M CAP = $1M SNWA = $1M MWD = $1M Denver Water = tbd PSCA 2015 - 2017: Total funding = $18.5 M +1’

Shortage Sharing Lower Basin shortages are shared based on 2007 Guidelines Mexico separately agreed to reductions at the same elevations Lake Mead Elevation Shortage Reductions Arizona Nevada California Mexico 1075’ 320,000 AF 13,000 AF 0 AF 50,000 AF 1050’ 400,000 AF 17,000 AF 70,000 AF 1025’ 480,000 AF 20,000 AF 125,000 AF

Current Shortage Sharing Tier 1  Lake Mead Elevation  Tier 2 Tier 3  Shortage Reductions (x 1,000 AF) 

Projection w/Current Sharing Lake Mead Elevation Percentiles*  Tier 1 50th 25th  Tier 2 10th  Tier 3 * i.e., percent of model results, in each year, falling at or below the indicated elevation, based on “Stress Test” Hydrology.

Drought Contingency The Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan is an “insurance policy” Provides more certainty and greater protection of Colorado River supplies The process is led by the Bureau of Reclamation and the Lower Basin States Builds on the initial progress in the pilot projects Additional reductions to “bend the curve” in the projected decline of Lake Mead Efforts with the Upper Basin and Mexico are also underway

Current Shortage Sharing Tier 1  Lake Mead Elevation  Tier 2 Tier 3  Shortage Reductions (x 1,000 AF) 

Drought Contingency Plan  Lake Mead Elevation  |<----- 200 ---->| |<------- 250 ------>| |<--------- 300 --------->| |<----------- 350 ------------>| |<----------- 350 ------------>|  Shortage Reductions (x 1,000 AF) 

Drought Contingency Plan  Lake Mead Elevation  Current Proposed |<----- 200 ---->| |<------- 250 ------>| |<--------- 300 --------->| |<----------- 350 ------------>| |<----------- 350 ------------>|  Shortage Reductions (x 1,000 AF) 

Projection w/Drought Contingency Projection w/Current Sharing Lake Mead Elevation Percentiles*  Tier 1 50th 25th  Tier 2 10th  Tier 3 * i.e., percent of model results, in each year, falling at or below the indicated elevation, based on “Stress Test” Hydrology.

Projection w/Drought Contingency Lake Mead Elevation Percentiles* The additional reductions and conservation efforts are effective in reducing risk However, the impacts to CAP users, both positive and negative, vary by time, depth of shortage and CAP priority pool  Tier 1 50th 25th  Tier 2 10th  Tier 3 * i.e., percent of model results, in each year, falling at or below the indicated elevation, based on “Stress Test” Hydrology.

CAP Priority Pools Ag Excess Tribes Cities Long-Term Contracts

CAP Priority Pools Firmed by USBR Firmed by AWBA

CAP Priority Pools LBDCP Reductions 192,000 512,000 640,000 720,000

Drought Contingency Plan Reduces the risk of critical declines in Lake Mead Provides new certainty regarding the Secretary of the Interior’s actions Shared reductions by Arizona, California, and Nevada, plus conservation by the U.S. Additional protection for CAP M&I and Indian priority users, but earlier reductions to users of Other Excess, Ag Pool and NIA- priority water

Protect Lake Mead CAP has initiated an extensive public outreach campaign Resources are available at: ProtectLakeMead.com

Questions