Action Items WRF/LES model coupling Model-measurement comparison

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Presentation transcript:

Action Items WRF/LES model coupling Model-measurement comparison Forward modeling activities: consistency among the models

FLAGG-MD Meeting Xinrong Ren April 27, 2015 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Baltimore-Washington Area: Initial Results from the WINTER 2015 flights FLAGG-MD Meeting Xinrong Ren April 27, 2015

Outline Winter flight overview A typical flight on 2/20/2015 (RF5) CO2 and CH4 flux estimation Preliminary Intercomparison with Purdue’s Duchess Summary

UMD Cessna 402B Research Aircraft GPS Position (Lat, Long, Altitude) Met (T, RH, P, wind speed/direction) Trace gases: O3: UV Absorption SO2: Pulsed Fluorescence CH4/CO2/CO/H2O: Cavity Ringdown, Picarro NO2: Cavity Ring Down, Los Gatos NO: Chemiluminescence Aerosol Optical Properties: Scattering: bscat (@450, 550, 700 nm), Nephelometer Absorption: bap (565 nm), PSAP Black Carbon: Aethalometer Data Acquisition: 1 Hz Gas Inlet Aerosol Inlet Met Sensors New Picarro CO2/CH4/CO/H2O analyzer

Flight Tracks, all flights

Flight Met Conditions Flihgt # Date Takeoff (UTC) Landing (UTC) RF1 02/06/15 19:15:40 22:17:37 WSW winds, PBL H=2000 ft RF2 02/13/15 19:09:08 22:37:39 WNW winds, PBL H=5000 ft RF3a 02/16/15 16:11:50 19:34:28 WNW winds, PBL H~6000 ft, with Duchess RF3b 20:28:38 20:47:54 RF4a 02/19/15 16:49:04 18:55:38 WNW winds, PBL H=4000 ft, with Duchess RF4b 19:55:51 22:26:16 RF5a 02/20/15 16:25:32 18:39:35 WNW winds, PBL H=4000 ft RF5b 20:01:24 22:39:16 RF6a 02/23/15 18:08:11 20:14:17 NNW winds, PBL H=4500 ft RF6b 21:08:59 23:33:04 RF7 02/24/15 16:58:13 19:10:42 S winds, PBL H=3000 RF8a 02/25/15 16:10:49 18:25:48 W winds, PBL H=5500 ft RF8b 19:22:30 21:41:20 RF9 02/26/15 18:58:18 21:07:05 NNW winds, PBL H=4000 ft

A typical mass balance experiment flight on 2/20/15 Missed approach wind VP Missed approach VP VP VP

A typical mass balance experiment flight on 2/20/15 VP VP VP Missed approach

3 Downwind Vertical Profiles Mixing layer depth ~3500 - 4000 ft

CO2 Map wind ODESA Brandon Shores Dickerson Easton Chalk Point Morgantown TAPPA Power plant plumes clearly observed on the downwind transects.

CH4 Map wind ODESA Easton Brown Station Landfill TAPPA High CH4 levels aloft at SW of the upwind leg: CH4 emissions from fracking?

CH4 vs. CO2 colored with SO2 Landfill Urban Power plants [SO2], ppbv Landfill Urban Power plants Free troposphere

CO2 on 2 downwind transects along the latitude Chalk Point Morgantown Brandon Shores DC plume Baltimore plume

CH4 on 2 downwind transects along the latitude DC plume Baltimore plume Much larger CH4 enhancement in the DC plume than in the Baltimore plume.

Estimation of CO2 and CH4 Fluxes Mass Balance Experiment (MBE) approach: Flux [C] : concentrations (downwind) [C]b : concentration in background U⊥ : perpendicular wind speed Baseline

Estimation of CO2 and CH4 Fluxes Flight # (Date) Flux(CH4) (mol s-1) (M tons yr-1) Flux(CO2) (tons s-1) (M tons yr-1) RF2 (2/13/2014) 512 0.26 6.9 217 RF4 (2/19/2014) 1356 0.68 4.8 152 RF5 (2/20/2014) 914 0.46 6.0 190 RF6 (2/23/2014) 1550 0.78 9.4 295 RF7 (2/24/2014) 1100 0.56 9.5 300 RF8 (2/25/2014) 1304 0.66 8.6 272 Mean 1100±370 0.57±0.18 7.5±1.9 238±60 Note: (1) Errors in the last row are the standard deviations of fluxes. (2) Mean concentrations at the edges of downwind transects (outside of the urban plumes) are used as the background concentrations. (3) Transect averaged perpendicular wind speeds are used. (4) The population in the Balt–DC area is close to 10 million.

Uncertainty Associated with the MBE Approach Mass Balance Experiment (MBE) approach: Flux Mixing layer height (zi): ~10% Plume width (x): ~5% ∆[C] = [C] – [C]b: ~20% Perpendicular wind speed (U⊥): ~20% Combined uncertainty in flux estimation: ~30%

Cessna-Duchess Intercomparison Flight 2/16/2015

CO2 and CH4 time series 2/16/2015 side-by-side flying

WS and WD time series 2/16/2015 side-by-side flying

WS Comparison 2/16/2015

Summary Successfully conducted MBE flights in the Balt-DC area in winter 2015 Preliminary estimation of GHG fluxes: F(CH4): 1100±370 mole s-1 (or 0.57±0.18 million tons CH4/yr) F(CO2): 7.5±1.9 tons s-1 (or 238±60 million tons CO2/yr) Preliminary Cessna-Duchess intercomparison results: encouraging but need to look into reasons behind the discrepancies. Future work will involve: Evaluating assumed boundary conditions. Using the kriging interpolation to build a concentration wall to improve flux estimation; Comparison with Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation modeling with high resolution WRF modeling.

Extra Slides

CO2 on flight track

CH4 on flight track

CO on flight track

CO2/SO2 Peaks Observed and Nearby Power Plants in Indy 2014

Power Plant Emission Validation (Indy 2014): ΔSO2/ΔCO2: Observed vs Power Plant Emission Validation (Indy 2014): ΔSO2/ΔCO2: Observed vs. Reported Flight Plume Source (Power Plant) Hour (LST) ΔSO2/ΔCO2 (observed) (%) ΔSO2/ΔCO2 (reported) (%) WS (m/s) Distance from power plant (miles) RF3_Peak 1 Eagle Valley station 14 0.09 0.76 3.1 28.3 RF3_Peak 2 15 0.08 1.5 27.8 RF3_Peak 3 16 0.1 4.1 31.6 RF5 Harding Street station 0.07 0.25 12.8 21.3 RF6 13 0.13 0.79 3.3

Ozone and NO2 time series 2/16/2015 side-by-side flying