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The State of Affordable Housing Dave T. Garland National Association of Realtors Second Century Ventures August 1, 2017
A Robust Real Estate Transaction Market (2016) Home Sales Median Home Price YoY Price Growth 6.0m $236,000 4.0% Owner Occupied Transactions Non-Owner Occupied Transactions 4.2m 1.8m Avg. 30yr Mortgage Rate Total Inventory 3.9% 1.7m
#1 Realtor® Challenge?
$13.4t 43.3m 136m 119m 75.7m $10.2t 17m Vacant (& 2nd homes) Equity Rented (36%) $13.4t 43.3m Housing Units 136m Households 119m Owned (64%) 75.7m Mortgage Debt Outstanding $10.2t
18% 5-yr Rent Growth 12% 5-yr Wage Growth V S
$535k 2012 Bay Area Median Home Price V S $1.07m 2017 Bay Area Median Home Price
$535k 2012 Bay Area Median Home Price V S $1.07m 2017 Bay Area Median Home Price
Financial Instruments Development Subsidies Tax Credits Zoning CURRENT SOLUTIONS: Inclusionary Housing Loan Subsidies Financial Instruments Development Subsidies Tax Credits Zoning Housing Trusts AFFORDABILITY ISSUES: Supply Constraints Low Inventory Rent Increases Down Payment Construction Costs Area Demand Local Requirements
NAR Housing Affordability Index (HAI) Measuring whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home
Realtors® Affordability Distribution Curve & Score The measure which is intended to represent affordability for all different income percentiles in a single measure https://www.nar.realtor/topics/realtors-affordability-distribution-curve-and-score
How can we better understand market inefficiencies?
Sources & Continued Research http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2017/04/26/vacation-and-investment-home-sales-a-breakdown-for-2017/ https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/june-2017-existing-home-sales https://www.nar.realtor/articles/vacant-land-or-affordable-housing http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2017/06/29/online-home-value-estimates-are-not-appraisals/ http://www.housingwire.com/articles/38852-zillow-total-value-of-us-housing-reaches-all-time-high https://www.statista.com/statistics/240267/number-of-housing-units-in-the-united-states/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/mortoutstand/current.htm https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ https://www.nar.realtor/topics/housing-affordability-index/methodology
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