November 2016 Beverley Perin PAJES Primary and secondary school accountability reform and assessment in 2016 November 2016 Beverley Perin PAJES

Why are we reforming accountability? The new primary and secondary school accountability systems are fairer than their predecessors – they better reflect how well schools support pupils’ progress, including disadvantaged pupils. The new progress measure allows schools to be held to account for the performance of all pupils. Comparing pupils with similar starting points ensures every increase in grade or scaled score from every pupil will contribute to a school’s overall progress score. Schools not making good progress with a high performing intake will be identified..

Changes to primary assessment in 2016 Primary assessment and accountability are both being reformed in 2016, relevant assessment changes at KS2 are: New primary curriculum, new KS2 assessments – no longer reported in levels; New expected standard – higher than previously (level 4) – so it is harder to meet the new expected standard than it was to get level 4; Results of tests in reading and maths will be reported as a scaled score, with the expected standard at 100; Writing will be teacher assessed against an interim framework: working towards; working at the expected standard; working at greater depth (‘secure fit’ rather than ‘best fit’); and New interim framework for pupils below the standard of the test or assessment – Rochford Review. Importantly, the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile remains statutory for a further year (2016/17)

Primary school headline measures in 2016 Headline measures in the 2016 performance tables will be – percentage of pupils achieving the ‘expected standard’ in English reading, English writing and mathematics at the end of key stage 2; – average scaled score: in English reading at the end of key stage 2; in mathematics at the end of key stage 2; – percentage of pupils who achieve at a high standard in English reading, English writing and mathematics; – average progress: in English reading; in English writing; and in mathematics Performance tables will also continue to include a range of additional measures covering attainment in individual subjects and for various pupil groups.

Primary progress measure: how does it work? Stage 1: (taking reading as an example)

Progress measure: how does it work? Stage 2: We add all the Y6 progress scores together and divide by the number of pupils to give mean score = schools progress score – of, say, +2 So pupils in Chris’ school made slightly more progress than those with similar starting points in other schools This process is repeated for other subjects. Schools get three scores showing average progress in: Reading Mathematics Writing (nominal points, replace scaled scores) Parents can now compare schools to see where pupils with similar starting points make more or less progress

Primary school floor standard and coasting schools definition in 2016 In 2016, a school will be above the floor standard if: At least 65% of pupils achieve the expected standard in reading, writing and maths or The school has a sufficient progress score in each of reading (-5), writing (-7) and mathematics (-5). The SoS has committed that no more than 6% of eligible primary schools will be below the floor in 2016. Coasting definition: In 2016 a school will be coasting if it is below these levels in all three of these years: 2014 and 2015 – fewer than 85% of pupils achieve L4+ and pupils failed to make expected progress, and 2016 – fewer than 85% of pupils achieve the new higher expected standard and the school’s scores are less than sufficient.

When are primary results available? •Late October 2016: Full school performance measures data available to schools in provisional RAISE online. December 2016: Revised Statistical Release and school performance tables website published – 2016 floor standard and coasting definition apply.

Key messages from provisional national primary data 53% of pupils achieved the ‘expected standard’ in English reading, English writing and mathematics 5% of pupils achieved a higher standard in reading, writing and mathematics 103 104 103

Distribution of provisional progress scores

Secondary school headline measures in 2016 Progress 8: Progress across 8 qualifications Attainment 8: Attainment across the same 8 qualifications Percentage of pupils achieving a C grade or above in English and maths Percentage of pupils achieving the EBacc Destination measures Plus a range of more detailed information, including on the performance of disadvantaged pupils in relation to their peers i.e. non disadvantaged nationally. No more ‘close the gap’ or in school comparison – all against non groups nationally.

The attainment 8/progress 8 measure

Attainment 8 – a pupil example Attainment 8 score = 61

Progress 8 – example pupil Pupil score measured against average Attainment 8 score for pupils nationally having same prior attainment Our example pupil scored 61 points for Attainment 8 –this is equivalent to a grade B average across all subjects (divide score by 10 [8 subjects with E&M double weighted]) Pupil has fine-level scores of 4.6 in English and 5.1 in maths; an average of 4.8 Pupil’s score of 61 is therefore compared to the average Attainment 8 score achieved by all pupils having average prior attainment of 4.8

How does progress 8 work?

Secondary school floor standard and coasting schools definitions Floor standard: Schools will be below the floor standard if their Progress 8 score is below -0.5 (i.e. if pupils are on average making half a grade less progress than pupils with the same prior attainment) and the upper band of the confidence interval is below zero. Coasting definition: In 2014 and 2015, fewer than 60% of pupils achieve 5 or more A*-C grades including English and maths at GCSE and the percentage of pupils making expected progress in English is below the national median and the percentage of pupils making expected progress in mathematics is below the national median; And in 2016 it falls below a new coasting level set against the Progress 8 measure.

When are secondary results available? October 2016: Provisional SFR and school performance tables published, which include provisional Progress 8 scores. Late November – Yet to be validated data available to schools through RAISE online. January 2017: revised SFR and school performance tables website published – floor standard and coasting definition apply.

Further changes on the way GCSEs and A levels in England are being reformed, to match the best systems in the world and keep pace with universities’ and employers’ demands. GCSE content will be more challenging but still suitable for all abilities GCSEs will be graded on a new scale of 9 – 1 rather than A* – G as now, with 9 the highest grade, to distinguish clearly between the reformed and unreformed qualifications

This means different outcomes for pupils, but also for schools Ofqual has changed the grading for reformed qualifications. We have raised the level considered to be a “good pass” and allowed for extra differentiation at the top. The use of comparable outcomes will hold results steady at grades 1, 4 and 7 at national level but there will be considerable volatility at school level. This will in part depend on how many of their pupils are in the weaker 2/3rds of the current C band. But also – inevitably – some schools will be better at preparing their pupils than others.

When do the GCSE changes happen? Start course in 2015, exams 2017 Start course in 2016, exams 2018 Start course in 2017, exams 2019 Start course in 2018, exams 2020 English literature, English language and maths only. English and maths plus… Art and design, biology, chemistry, citizenship studies (and short course), combined science, computer science, dance, drama, food preparation and nutrition, French, geography, German, classical Greek, history, Latin, music, physical education, physics, religious studies (including short course), and Spanish. 2015 and 2016 subjects plus… Ancient history, Arabic, astronomy, Bengali, business, Chinese, classical civilisation, design and technology, economics, electronics, engineering, film studies, geology, Italian, Japanese, media studies, modern Greek, modern Hebrew, Panjabi, PE short course, Polish, psychology, Russian, sociology, statistics, and Urdu. All previous subjects plus… Gujarati, biblical Hebrew, Persian, Portuguese, and Turkish.

The new GCSE grades will have an impact on performance table points and so on progress 8 scores GCSE grades are converted into performance table points to calculate performance table measures. In 2017 and 2018 a combination of legacy (8 point grading scale) and reformed GCSEs (9 point grading scale) will count in performance tables. This means we will convert point scores for old GCSEs to meet the new 9-1 system. This means that a school could achieve exactly the same results in 2016 and 2017, but see a change in their Attainment 8 score. This will have a differential impact at school level depending on average prior attainment. At national level we will see a (small) drop in Attainment 8 scores.

So in summary Timing - As now, the revised data is used to inform judgements (December for Primary, January for secondary). Changes - Different schools in scope for intervention – as progress determines the floor. Context – No single piece of data drives a decision – even more important in 2016 for primary as it’s a transition year for primary assessment.

Useful links Progress 8 guidance: www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/497937/Progress-8-school-performance-measure.pdf Primary accountability in 2016 technical guidance: www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/496158/Primary_school_accountability_in_2016.pdf Schools White Paper (chapter 7 text on accountability): www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/508550/Educational_excellence_everywhere__print_ready_.pdf