Adjustment to Hazards and Disasters GEOG 558 Hazards and Risk Management Dr. Chrys Rodrigue

What to Do about a Perceived and Understood Hazard? How society or an individual copes with hazard is called “adjustment to hazard” Ideally: loss reduction through mitigation and preparation Much cheaper in the long run than repeating the event-response-restoration-reconstruction drill Human and social adjustment to hazard is not very straightforward, given everything on all our plates

Influences on Individual Adjustment Affected by: Experience Experience gives people more accurate perceptions Especially effective seems to be loss of property Wealth More money, more wherewithal to pay for insurance and other mitigations and they have more at risk But previous work suggests that wealthy people are somewhat less likely to have insurance Maybe confidence in ability to command social resources? Personality Risk tolerance, confidence, laziness Fatalism and religious attitudes

Adjustments Available Just accept the loss or take responsibility Modify the loss burden/share the loss around Disaster aid Can be uneven, arbitrary The “golden hours” Can be inappropriate and ineffective Which “normalcy” are we restoring? Insurance Buying insurance or expecting government help? Insurance can be very expensive Moral hazard and adverse selection issues

Adjustments Available Modify the event Society, let alone, individuals are a little puny compared to quakes, tsunami, hurricanes We have a little bit of influence over flood and fire But mitigations against frequent low-magnitude events can set us up for the much rarer, much more powerful event River levées, dams vs. silting Firefighting vs. growing fuel

Adjustments Available Modify human vulnerability: Mitigation Modify how structures transmit forces to humans Planning and zoning These generate political resistance and sabotage Good codes undermined by cut-corner construction Corruption of inspection Laziness and cost aversion: Mitigations can be very expensive and disruptive Individuals can mitigate risk: Non-structural mitigations Structural mitigations

Adjustments Available Preparation/preparedness Pre-arranged and pre-practiced Household level Agency level (ICS, scenarios, drills) Evaluating and selecting evacuation routes/centers During mitigation and preparation phases Also, on the fly as an emergency situation evolves Depiction? GIS? Remote sensing? Triage

Adjustments Available Preparation/preparedness Risk assessment Prediction (constrains timeframe) Forecasts (about magnitude, duration/timing, location, but no suggestions about actions) Warnings (the forecast, but with recommended actions) Public education Sharing scientific risk assessments Predictions Risk communication Top-down warnings and what-to-do Bottom-up: Individuals are information-seekers