Freya Newman, MSc Centre for Investigative Psychology

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Presentation transcript:

Core Functionality of iOPS Developed with the Metropolitan Police Service. (New Scotland Yard) Freya Newman, MSc Centre for Investigative Psychology The University of Liverpool, UK www.i-psy.com

Comparative Case Analysis Q1: Can I link undetected crimes together? Q2: I have an offender with a particular offending style. What other crimes is he good for?

Q1: Can I link undetected crimes to a common offender? Burglaries

Structural Analysis of Behaviours Posed (42)

Behavioural similarity of crimes

Identify crime series All the same offender

Q2: I have an offender with a particular offending style Q2: I have an offender with a particular offending style. What other crimes is he/she good for? Burglaries

Posed & distraction? Burglaries

Posed & distraction Crime series

Suspect Prioritisation Who dunnit? Geography AND Behaviour to prioritise suspects

Geography Prioritises offenders by the location of their (home) base(s) iOPS does this with Dragnet Geographical ‘profiling’ system Developed at CIP Integrated within iOPS

Principles of Dragnet Offenders tend commit crimes close to home As distance from home to crime increases Probability of committing the crime decreases Distance decay

Source, Professor Canter, iOPS presentation, September 2004

Our Example Known offenders?

X = Prioritised offenders Our example X = Prioritised offenders = Known offenders = Crimes in series

Prioritisation table Offender ID Address Probability MO Match 124 Location A 0.28574311864 427 Location B 0.27038233898 Location C 0.26035169492 226 Location D 0.25577861017 48 Location E 0.23282991525 Location F 0.22445984746 0.3 Location G 0.21932662712

X = Prioritised offenders Our example X = Prioritised offenders = Known offenders = Crimes in series

MO Matching Behaviours in crimes Behaviours of known offenders climb sharp smoke defecate

Prioritisation table Offender ID Address Probability MO Match 124 Location A 0.28574311864 427 Location B 0.27038233898 Location C 0.26035169492 226 Location D 0.25577861017 48 Location E 0.23282991525 Location F 0.22445984746 0.3 Location G 0.21932662712

Social Network Analysis

3. Prioritise suspects using Geo-behavioural profiling iOPS: An interactive Geo-Behavioural Profiling System 1. M.O. 'heat map' 2. Identify offence series 3. Prioritise suspects using Geo-behavioural profiling 4. Social Network Analysis Offender ID Address Probability MO Match 124 Location A 0.28574311864 427 Location B 0.27038233898 Location C 0.26035169492 226 Location D 0.25577861017 48 Location E 0.23282991525 Location F 0.22445984746 0.3 Location G 0.21932662712 5. Linked Offenders?