? The overall question Y 160 80 40 20 1 1950 2000 2050 22 X Backcasting 120605 The overall question ecoefficiency Y CULTURE STRUCTURE NEED FUNCTION TECHNO- LOGY 160 80 40 ? 20 1 1950 2000 2050 22 X 120605 UPC Seminar Seminar UPC

Dimensions of sustainable development Overexploitation resources International instability Urban development Sustainable Development Green house effects Distribution of Prosperity Biodiversity 120605 UPC Seminar

Transitions manageable? NO ! What then is Transitionmanagement? COMPLEX: Long term Great uncertainty Many actors Conflicting interests Multi dimensual Multi sectoral Oriëntation on desirable future Create process conditions Future oriëntation Backcasting Interactive With stakeholders Iterative 120605 UPC Seminar

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: BACKCASTING OECD 1968 Eric Jantsch 120605 UPC Seminar

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: BACKCASTING The Natural Step (Robert & Holmer, Chalmers) 1 Present Situation, Problem analysis 2 Space for Options 4 Future view 3 Scenario analysis 1 Description present situation 2 Establishment criteria for options 3 Determining development path by SA 4 Selection best attainable development path an outcome 120605 UPC Seminar

CORE of BACKCASTING To achieve Stand now Backcasting Backcasting 120605 CORE of BACKCASTING To achieve Towards sust Backcasting Backcasting Action Plan Stand now NOW THEN 120605 UPC Seminar Seminar UPC

BACKCASTING: HOW future- oriëntation Backcasting Backcasting 120605 BACKCASTING: HOW INTERMEDIATE B-CYCLE future- oriëntation INTERMEDIATE STEPS Towards sust Backcasting Backcasting Robust trends Terms of reference Action Plan Problem analysis 2000 TIME 2050 120605 UPC Seminar Seminar UPC

STRUCTURE CULTURE NEEDS FUNCTIONS TECHNOLOGY Backcasting 120605 STRUCTURE CULTURE NEEDS FUNCTIONS TECHNOLOGY 120605 UPC Seminar Seminar UPC

Types of change EFF. FACTOR 20 5 1 2000 2050 TIME RENEWAL BASED ON Backcasting 120605 Types of change EFF. FACTOR 20 RENEWAL BASED ON NEEDS AND FUNCTION IMPROVEMENT OF PROCES AND PRODUCT 5 OPTIMAL USE 1 2000 2050 TIME 120605 UPC Seminar Seminar UPC

Culture – Structure - Technology DIMENSIONS OF CHANGE Optimization - Improvement - Renewal Involved Parties 120605 UPC Seminar

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: BACKCASTING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 120605 HOW: SYSTEM RENEWAL: ITERATIVE PROCES SUPPORTLINE: eveluate and new assignment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7   1 PROBLEMDEFINITION 2 PROCES ARCHITEXTURE 3 TRENDS AND TERMS 4 VISIEON 5 OPTIONS 6 SELECTIONCRITERIA 7 SELECTION Back in case of insufficient evaluation result 1 2 3 4 5 6 DEVELOPMENTLINE: next product 120605 UPC Seminar Seminar UPC

Transition at different scales (concurrent) Macro, landscape Meso, regimes Micro, niches Jan Rotmans, 2003, 120605 UPC Seminar

ATTITUDE SKILLS STUDENT KNOWLEDGE Backcasting 120605 Integral approach Application oriented Systemic Communicative Sustainability Cooperative ATTITUDE SKILLS STUDENT Technology Culture Structure)‏ KNOWLEDGE 120605 UPC Seminar Seminar UPC

Step Proposed time (hrs) 1 a Define system and determine system boundaries. Rough description of unsustainability of present situation Identification major stake holders Analysis For each step: 1 h brainstorming ½ h listing of results 1 b Proper description of unsustainability of present situation with stakeholders. 2a Development sustainability and functional criteria for options 2b Inquiry and Analysis of relevant external trends 3 Establishment Future orientation existing of 3 a Description of strategic options Exploration 3 b Selection of or combination to a robust option. (optional by scenario analysis1) 4 Backwards path construction towards present situation and setting up action plan Construction Summarizing results Presentation 2 Total 14 In a scenario analysis influencing external factors are identified, classified in a two-dimensional graph: from low impact to high impact and from certain (high predictability) to uncertain (low predictability),select the critical factors: high impact, highly uncertain, the extremes of two most infringing ones deliver four scenario´s, the scenario´s I to IV are named and described. In TNS test robustness in the scenario´s or strategies. In STD search the future options which are most robust in the four scenario´s. Requires extra time 120605 UPC Seminar