Working with Logic Models Olivier Serrat 2014 The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank, or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this presentation and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The countries listed in this presentation do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's terminology.

On Logic Models In development assistance, most projects (and programs) are planned, monitored, and evaluated using logic models, the purpose of which is to synthesize "if–then" (causal) relationships. Logic models help to: Analyze problems; identify a desired impact; Establish a logical hierarchy of means by which the desired impact will be conduced by a contributing outcome; Identify clusters of outputs toward that; Determine how accomplishments might be monitored and evaluated, and planned and actual results compared; Flag the assumptions on which a project is based and the associated risks; summarize a project in a standard format; and Build consensus with stakeholders; and create ownership of the project.

The Results Chain Inputs The physical and non-physical resources (personnel, equipment) and finance necessary to perform planned activities and manage the project. Activities The specific tasks performed, using resources and methods, in order to achieve intended outputs. Outputs The products and services produced or competences and capacities established directly as a result of project activities. Outcome The intended situation at the end of (or soon after) the project's lifespan in terms of gains in performance (as a result of changes in knowledge and behavior). Impact The improvement of a situation that respond to the identified development needs of the target population under a long-term vision.

The Logical Framework Design Summary Performance Data Sources and Reporting Assumptions and Risks Impact: The broader impact of the project at a sectoral and national level Measures of the extent to which the project has contributed to the impact Sources of information and ways to gather and report it Assumptions and risks at the impact level are beyond the control of the project but essential to attainment of the impact Outcome: The expected outcome at the end of the project Conditions at the end of the project indicating that its outcome has been achieved Assumptions and risks at the outcome level are those that relate to attainment of outcome targets Outputs: The direct results of the project (works, goods, and services) Measures of the quantity and quality of outputs and the timing of their delivery Assumptions and risks at the output level are those that are external and beyond the control of the project implementers but essential for successful attainment of the outputs Activities with Milestones: The tasks executed to deliver the outputs identified Inputs: The various resource categories required to undertake the project should be identified

The Results Chain and the OECD-DAC Evaluation Criteria Objective Inputs Activities Outputs Outcome Impact Relevance Efficiency Effectiveness Sustainability Needs

Challenges and Limits to Management Logic Degree of Control Challenge of Monitoring and Evaluation Impact What the project is expected to contribute to Outcome What the project can be expected to achieve and be accountable for Outputs What is within the direct control of the project's management Activities Inputs Decreasing Control Increasing Difficulty

Working the Logic It is a rare project that unfolds exactly according to plan: logic models per se neither guarantee good project design nor replace other instruments of project management. During project implementation, one must pay close attention to the cause-and-effect relationships between inputs, activities with milestones, outputs, outcome, and impact. Importantly, outputs (and the activities and related inputs that deliver these) are what is within the direct control of the project's management. Plans are only good intentions unless they immediately degenerate into hard work. —Peter Drucker

Working the Logic Therefore, in relation to outputs, one must during project implementation make repeatedly certain that inputs for activities are deployed successfully. (Or, one must adjust the means of attaining the outcome, including the definition of outputs, the mix of activities, and the indicators needed to measure accomplishment of newly-defined performance targets.) It is possible to deepen and extend the logical framework. For each output of a project, one can examine methodically whether targets are being achieved, how activities are being implemented, and how activities might be improved. One can then itemize individual action plans, the execution of which should then be monitored. A tool for output accomplishment and improvement of activities is depicted overleaf—for the sake of simplicity, it indicates only two targets per output.

On Output Accomplishment and Improvement of Activities

Further Reading ADB. 2008. Output Accomplishment and the Design and Monitoring Framework. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/output-accomplishment-and-design-and-monitoring-framework ADB. 2008. Focusing on Project Metrics. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/focusing-project-metrics ADB. 2008. Outcome Mapping. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/outcome-mapping ADB. 2011. Critical Thinking. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/critical-thinking ADB. 2013. Theories of Change. Manila. Available: digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/intl/269/

Olivier Serrat Principal Knowledge Management Specialist Regional and Sustainable Development Department Asian Development Bank knowledge@adb.org www.adb.org/knowledge-management www.facebook.com/adbknowledgesolutions www.scribd.com/knowledge_solutions www.twitter.com/adbknowledge