The Arab Spring December 17, 2010: Igniting spark was the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit & vegetable vendor, leading to protests throughout the country

Bouazizi dies on January 4, 2011 … and President Ben Ali’s rule comes to an end on January 14, 2011. Following the example of Tunisia, protests against governments and calls for reforms emerge throughout the Arab world: January 2011: first protests in the streets of Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Oman, Yemen Especially noteworthy are huge protests in Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, against President Hosni Mubarak

February 2011: The Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigns on February 11 On February 15, protests break out in neighboring Libya against Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, developing into the Libyan Civil War

In coming months unrest can be witnessed from Morocco to Bahrain protesters in Morocco demand reforms and social justice protesters in Bahrain demand greater political freedom and equality for Shia majority under a Sunni government - in March 2011 troops from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States intervene to support Al Khalifa’s monarchy - dozens are killed; the West remains largely silent due to security interests via Iran; the revolt is crushed; various Shia mosques are destroyed throughout the nation Bahrain Pearl Roundabout in Manama King Al Khalifa

June 2011: President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen is injured and flees the country August 2011: Military crackdown in Syria against protesters; the US and the EU call for Assad to step down Battle of Tripoli between loyalists and National Transitional Council; Gaddafi is essentially overthrown and goes into hiding October 2011: Gaddafi is killed by rebels in the city of Sirte in Libya; the “National Transitional Council” will de facto become the Libyan government

November 2011: protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (in power since Mubarak’s resignation) February 2012: Former Yemeni President Saleh officially resigns and transfers to Vice-President Al-Hadi Syrian government attacks the city of Homs Increased weakening of Libya’s “National Transitional Council” and clashes between Arab Zawi and African Tebu groups in Libya April 2012: - Protest in Egypt for a transfer of power and democratic elections

May 2012: Syrian regime kills more than 100 people (including children) in the Houla massacre June 2012: Hosni Mubarak sentenced to life in prison by Egyptian court; Mohamed Morsi (Muslim Brotherhood) elected new President of Egypt

July 2012: Syrian situation gets worse, now officially Civil War; Syrian regime forces and opposition forces begin battle of Aleppo; hundreds are killed; already more than 200,000 refugees fled country August 2012: - General National Congress in Libya takes over power from NTC September 2012: Free Syrian Army moves headquarters from S-Turkey into N-Syria October 2012: Free Syrian Army makes territorial gains November 2012: Protests against Morsi after he grants himself unlimited powers

December 2012: Controversial referendum in Egypt about a new constitution, signed into law in late December January 2013: Protests against Morsi on second anniversary of 2011 revolution February 2013: Syrian rebels begin offensive on Damascus; death toll in the country exceeds 70,000 March 2013: Syrian rebels capture Raqqa

July 2013: Morsi is deposed as President of Egypt in a coup d-etat August 2013: Syrian government hits Ghouta and other areas in Syria with chemical attacks (sarin nerve agent) killing up to 1,000 people January 2014: - Syrian opposition faces ISIS, a new group surfacing in the region

February 2014: Government in Egypt resigns; army chief al-Sisi can run for President May 2014: Al-Sisi elected Egyptian President; Syrian rebels withdraw from Homs June 2014: - Situation in Libya deteriorates as fighting between groups escalates - ISIS declares caliphate in territory from Aleppo to eastern Iraq and Raqqa eventually becomes the ISIS capital

September 2014: US and five Arab countries launch airstrikes against ISIS in Aleppo and Raqqa November 2014: armed group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis on Egyptian Sinai peninsula pledges allegiance to ISIS and declares the Sinai Province December 2014: Beji Caid Essebsi elected President in Tunisia January 2015: Kurdish forces push ISIS out of Kobane in Syria; ISIS takes a foothold in Libya in the port city of Sirte February 2015: Egyptian air force carries out strikes against ISIS in eastern Libya; Egypt seeks UN mandate for international intervention in Libya

May 2015: ousted President Morsi sentenced to death for a mass breakout of Muslim Brotherhood prisoners back in 2011 ISIS seizes the ancient city of Palmyra in Syria, destroying artifacts June 2015: ISIS gunman kills 38 tourists at the resort Sousse in Tunisia; government closes extremist mosques in response In Syria fight between Kurdish fighters and ISIS intensifies between Raqqa and Turkish border

July 2015: ISIS launches attack in North Sinai September 2015: Russia gets increasingly involved in Syria, carries our first airstrikes, saying it targets ISIS but West claims it targets Syrian opposition October 2015: ISIS claims responsibility for downing of Russian airliner in Sinai; 224 people on board of Airbus A321 get killed

November 2015: British ISIS militant known as “Jihadi John” dies in a drone attack; he appeared in several ISIS propaganda films depicting beheadings December 2015: France launches air strikes against ISIS after November Paris attacks January 2016: ISIS destroys oldest Christian monastery in Iraq (1,400 years old) Since the beginning of 2016, the tide for Syria’s Assad has been changing as a result of Russia’s increasing involvement in the region

General Causes for the Arab Spring Internal Factors leaders are too authoritarian and dictatorships have outlived their legitimacy region has a poor economy low GDP and very little growth economy dominated by the state with big public sectors little engagement with global economy non-oil exports of the Arab world equals that of Finland 3) Large part of Arab society is young (60-65%) - high unemployment - prone to political shifts

External Factors Why did the Arab Spring (as the Green Wave) not happen earlier? Technology - efficient grassroots organizing made possible with twitter, Facebook and smart phones 2) Food Security & Security in Other Important Commodities - global shortages and changes in food production; impacts of global warming; occurrence of severe droughts - rising food prices in poor countries leads to societal issues - fluctuation in gasoline prices (see Jordan) can also act as triggers

Lessons of the Arab Spring (Vali Nasr lecture: “The Arab Spring – Where Do We Go From Here”) Despite Negative Developments, Important general gains: - Arab world didn’t have a public sphere before - despite setbacks, people have developed a sense of empowerment - growing sense of the right to vote, social justice, right to protest, and governmental accountability - thus far the only country with a successful transition to a more democratic society seems Tunisia (“revolution of the Middle Class”) Challenges of political organizing: - Arab liberals not well organized; revolutions in Iran and Egypt happened too early; amorphous uprising without leader(s) - well organized entities like Muslim Brotherhood jumped in, but had different goals; the West didn’t know how to deal with them - while countries like Tunisia and Egypt are fairly homogenous, others are more diverse with many rivaling interests

Religious Composition of Middle Eastern Areas Core Area of Middle East Example Lebanon - The rise of ISIS explained in 14 maps

3) Unfinished Business in the Middle East: - colonial powers left, but countries they created remain, as do ethnic compositions and power structures (political and economic) - Bahrain: Sunni minority rules a Shia majority - Syria: Alawite minority rules Sunni majority - Iraq: post-Saddam Shia government rules Sunni minority - disenfranchised groups have become larger but their status as secondary citizens remains - dictatorships have been suppressing a resolution of this issue - importance of national identity vs. national citizenship - Middle East needs a successful “Civil Rights Movement” 4) Lack of investment in the Middle East: - no democratization without investments and economic growth - 1990s: $100 billion invested in E-Europe & $ 0 in the Middle East - priorities: $ 2 trillion on war to bring “change” but not economy? - religious and political reformation facilitated by economic success? (current situation in Iran?)