Intro: Gulf Security in Broad Perspective Asila Al Hasni U112491 POLS4925

Outline Beginnings Powerful Gulf actors Iran KSA Major powers and Gulf security The USA Europe Russia Regional politics and Gulf security Internal determents of Gulf security Future

Beginnings Gulf war 1990 Oil no existing solid security systems

Studies began with military threat analysis Good for short term only Ignores political, social, economical and geo political factors = affect security in the long term Iran 1979: same power, different ideals New security studies

Gulf region Iran Iraq most powerful in everyway other then economy Size population history regime Threat to GCC Very outdated Iran KSA

Iran KSA Size 1,648,195 km 2,149,690 km Population 81,824,270 27,752,316 Oil production 3,236,000 9,735,000 Reserves foreign exchange 93,950,000,000 USD 6,601,000,000,000 USD Annual defense budget 6,300,000,000 USD 56,725,000,000 USD Active military personnel 545,000 235,000 Active military reserves 1,800,000 25,000 Tanks 1,658 1,210 Aircrafts 479 722

Iran 1979 ideology: Exporting the Islamic revolution Khatami moderate for business 1997 - 2005 New Persian Empire? No resources for military occupation of GCC Iran will not be quiet, will have major role

KSA Religious intangible power + “Arabness” Economy Military spending Proxy war in Yemen, active politically

The major powers and gulf security Must look at foreign actors Geopolitical interests Oil and gas Foreign actors were, and will be, active

The USA Peak in operation desert storm (and operations following) US forces a deterrent – Saddam eg President Carter: gulf security a vital interest US security policy guided by US vital interests = easier to explain Affect of US and GCC domestic politics Shale oil changes that?

Europe Cannot match military power of US in gulf = supportive role only Support in coalition to help Kuwait Status quo will continue because US + EU have same GCC concerns Any disagreements only short term, not long term Secure energy supplies access to GCC markets is important for economies and welfare of EU

Collapse of USSR and the GCC Communist threats to the West through the GCC Post CW Russia – Central Asia relations Affect of these relations to the GCC region Increased Central Asia – GCC relations to increase independence from Russia

Russia and the GCC How important is the Gulf to Russia? Russia needs to form good relations with Islamic states But domestically represses Islamic minorities + sovereignty of Islamic states Near Abroad policy with Islamic states of Central Asia GCC affects central Asia which affects Russia itself Russia seeking great power status

Regional politics and gulf security Islamic political revolutionaries Attracting the poor Islam as a tool Territorial disputes Importance of including Iran and Iraq Israel

Regional politics and gulf security Yemen conflict Spread of conflict Drain on resources Undermining Saudi authority Iranian foot hold Al Qaeda

Regional politics and gulf security Syrian civil war Refugees ISIS Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar KSA, UAE and Bahrain https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGRP_kGW6_0

Internal determents of gulf security Regional development for long term security growing by oil and slowing by oil 2010: $600 billion surplus 2020: $700 billion deficit (IMF) Diversification: a goal, but “unrealized”

Internal determents of gulf security Modernity clashes with tradition after oil Higher expectations to be met for stability Affect of tribalism Less influence, still important Institutionalization Demographic changes

“No country can be secure unless its citizens are safe and well” Education Healthcare Satisfactory jobs Social integration No jobs = private sector = more power to the people Civil societies, workers unions, parties

Future? Security isn’t only about military threats Evolutionary changes Flexible public policies from within Substantive and procedural Balance of change and traditions

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