BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND CYCLE INDICATORS Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE) Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014

Overview Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3 Timeline……………………………………………………………….4 Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5 Cycle Indicators...........................................................................9 Mostly used series and quantitative data...............................10 On Going Projects.....................................................................14

Dating Committee (CODACE) FGV Economic Cycles Economic Cycles Statistics (Regular Tendency Surveys) Cycle Indicators (Coincident, Leading, etc.) Applied Studies Seminars/ Conferences Dating Committee (CODACE)

Tendency Surveys and Cycle Indicators Timeline of the FGV 2013 M Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV 2012 M Labour market leading and coincident Indicators Trade & Construction 2010 M 2008 Services M Latin American Economic Survey 2007 Q Experts survey/part of Ifo WES 2005 Consumer M 1998 Investment Q 1966 Manufacturing (Quarterly until 2005) M

System of Tendency Surveys Since 2008, expansion of coverage and improvements have been supported by the Brazilian Central Bank; Main results are made public on FGV´s web site (www.portalibre.fgv.br); Detailed results are sold as a means of financing part of the investments.

Main Statistical Features Business tendency Surveys Questionnaires and sector coverage are similar to the European Harmonised Programme; Firms stratified by size (large, medium and small) and sector; Web-based questionnaire complemented by telephone calls. Consumer Survey Questionnaire combines the “European Harmonised”, Michigan and TCB; Consumers stratified by income level and region (city); Coverage – 7 major cities of the country; Data collected by web and telephone calls. Calendar for FGV Surveys is available at FGV´s web site: http://portalibre.fgv.br/

FGV Surveys – Size of Samples Sector Size of Sample Number of sectors* FGV´s monthly Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys Manufacturing 1,200 21 Services 2,200 29 Trade 17 Construction 700 11 Total of monthly Business Surveys 5,300 78 Total of Consumer Survey 2,100 4 / 7 * Quarterly Surveys Investment 850 Latin American Economic Survey 150 --- * 4 income levels; 7 cities

Indicators from Surveys used in Brazil Besides the confidence indices, some individual indicators extracted from theses surveys are widely used in Brazil: Consumer´s Inflation Expectations (published separately); Consumer´s employment assessment; Household´s financial situation (delinquency rates); Savings/consumption (consumer´s indebtedness cycle); Manufacturing Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU); Inventory levels; Investment Confidence Index – Aggregation of confidence indices from sectors related to productive investments (eg: capital goods, inputs to construction, etc).

Cycle Indicators Starting in 2009, FGV created indicators from Tendency Surveys data combined with other indicators: Labour market leading and coincident Indicators (only survey indicators); Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV (following the Conference Board traditional family of indicators).

Manufacturing Confidence Index x Manufacturing Production* Source: FGV/IBRE and IBGE * Published with a 40-day delay

Future Business Situation x Investment Source: FGV/IBRE

Expected Employment x Industrial Employment Source: FGV/IBRE and MTE

Leading Economic Index and Coincident Economic Index Source: FGV/IBRE The gray areas represent the recessions of the brazilian economy, according to the Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE).

On Going Projects Level of capacity utilisation for non-manufacturing sectors (2013-); Granting access to microdata from both Consumer and Business surveys to academic researchers from inside and outside FGV (2014); Website for the working papers: http://bit.ly/TextosDeDiscussaoIBRE Extending the consumer Survey for the whole country (2014-); Programme for producing an aggregate Confidence Index for the BRICS’ countries and a Book on the BRICS’ economic cycles (2012-);

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