Correlates of Crime: - disadvantaged localities and conviction and imprisonment rates Adjunct Professor Peter Norden AO Australian & New Zealand Society of Criminology Conference Auckland, New Zealand 28th November 2012

Dramatic increase in the Australian National Imprisonment rate: - from 1994 – 2007, the size of the prisoner population increased steadily at any average rate of 3.7% per year. Reference: J. Zhang and A. Webster “An Analysis of Repeat Imprisonment Trends in Australia using Prisoner Census Data” ABS Catalogue no. 1351.0.55.031 (Aug 2010)

What could cause such an increase, more than three times the rate of growth of the total Australian population? Increased crime rates? ….no obvious evidence available Increased sentence length? ….minimal explanation only

Hypothesis from professional practice observations: - increase in socially disadvantaged, mentally ill and poor health generally Hypothesis to be tested by national research project mapping disadvantage by postcode, including more than 20 variables….

Information Technology Services CAR Main Points Measures disadvantage by postcode area in Vic and New South Wales Poverty concentrated and entrenched in certain areas Strong correlations between social disadvantage factors Positive impact of social cohesion RMIT University©2011 Information Technology Services

Information Technology Services A report commissioned by Jesuit Social Services and Catholic Social Services Australia 2007 RMIT University©2011 Information Technology Services

DISADVANTAGE FACTOR CORRELATIONS: VICTORIA: CRIME .601 Low job skills .535 Job Qualifications .633 Disability Pensions .544 Year 12 Incomplete .534 Low income RMIT University©2011 Information Technology Services

DISADVANTAGE FACTOR CORRELATIONS: VICTORIA: IMPRISONMENT .466 Low job skills .444 Low pre-school attendance .411 Unemployment .379 Year 12 Incomplete .506 Low taxable income .527 Child mistreatment .661 Public rental housing RMIT University©2011 Information Technology Services

Call for a reform of the Australian Criminal Justice System…… Call for a reform of the Australian Criminal Justice System……. Senator Jim Webb, U.S. 2009, National Criminal Justice Commission The United States: 5% of the world’s population 25% of the world’s prison population

The use of the criminal justice system to deal with social disadvantage, mental illness and addiction, and poor general health must be recognised….. Crime prevention methods, based on developing liveable and affordable communities can offer a viable alternative….

Professor Tony Vinson’s social research identifies the key role of social cohesion in combating the impact of entrenched community disadvantage. Three measures of high community cohesion used: participation in organised recreation/sporting groups volunteering availability of informal help or assistance

Measuring the Impact of Community Development Interventions …. CAR Unemp/Imp SC comp Measuring the Impact of Community Development Interventions …. Across local populations UNEMPLOYMENT and IMPRISONMENT are strongly connected (0.65**) Connection grows stronger (0.75) Low social cohesion plus Connection significantly weakens (0.22) High social N = 277 RMIT University©2011 Information Technology Services

CAR Low Inc/Imp SC comp Community Development Interventions Drives a Wedge in the Cycle of Disadvantage Across local populations LOW FAMILY INCOME and IMPRISONMENT are strongly connected (0.55**) Connection grows stronger (0.62) Low social cohesion plus Connection significantly weakens (0.18) High social N = 277 RMIT University©2011 Information Technology Services

CAR Early Sch/Unemp SC comp Impact of Community Development Interventions (contd) Across local populations EARLY SCHOOL LEAVING and UNEMPLOYMENT are strongly connected (0.64**) Connection remains strong (0.63) Low social cohesion plus Connection significantly weakens (0.28) High social N = 277 RMIT University©2011 Information Technology Services

CAR Unemp/Child Abuse SC comp Impact of Community Development Interventions (contd) Across local populations UNEMPLOYMENT and CHILD NEGLECT are strongly connected (0.68**) Connection remains high (0.56) Low social cohesion plus Connection drops (0.40) High social N = 277 RMIT University©2011 Information Technology Services

Impact of these research findings: …substantial implications for national social policy reform in Australia today. …focus on crime prevention and development of cohesive, liveable and affordable communities.