Dagstuhl Workshop on Fresh Approaches for Business Process Modeling How “Cognitive Computing” can transform BP’s (and how we model them) Rick Hull IBM Research 9 May 2016

Fundamental characteristics and “centricities” Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes Characteristics Centricity Coordination/Collaboration Decisions on Knowledge Very ad hoc, intuitive Knowledge-centric Long-running Many kinds of activities Best practices hidden Spreadsheets Goals-centric Care & feeding of ERP Variation, Evolution Spreadsheets Text-based process descriptions Data-centric However, all three aspects are relevant to all three levels

What is building on/coming after Data Science? “Cognitive Computing” – combining Big Data Analytics with Text/Image Processing, Learning, … A cognitive system has the following capabilities Monitor/Alert: Discovers patterns in data even if they are weak signals (“whispers”) Analyze: Assesses relative value of alternative paths, using statistical evaluations Decide/act: Advises on the optimal action to take Adapts and learns from training and experiences Important Cognitive System attributes Ability to incorporate relevant contextual information, including new data Deep natural language analysis, for info ingestion and human interaction Learning in real time as data arrives Can identify similar/related past experiences and learn from them Explain/justify recommendations to humans IPSoft’s Amelia “The world’s first neural automation system for the enterprise” Tata Consultancy

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information Decision-making based on learned knowledge Goals-based dynamic planning (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Govt Reg’s Corp. Policies “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes Define Processes Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes Care & Feeding of ERP System Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process ERP System

Three (approximate) Levels of Business Operations & Processes Examples Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes Build vs. Buy decisions Merger & Acquisition decisions Launch of a new kind of product Large IBM deals that transform a company Fraud investigations in a Bank Execution of Data Center Outsourcing deals Back-office processing (e.g., payroll, F&A, …) Supply Chain Management Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), e.g., IBM GPS

Characteristics of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes Characteristics Characteristics Coordination/Collaboration Decisions on Knowledge Very ad hoc, intuitive Long-running Many kinds of activities Best practices hidden Spreadsheets Care & feeding of ERP Variation, Evolution Spreadsheets Text-based process descriptions

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information Decision-making based on learned knowledge Goals-based dynamic planning (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Govt Reg’s Corp. Policies “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes Define Processes Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes Care & Feeding of ERP System Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process ERP System

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Characteristics Centricity Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes Coordination/Collaboration Decisions on Knowledge Very ad hoc, intuitive Knowledge-centric Long-running Many kinds of activities Best practices hidden Spreadsheets Goals-centric Care & feeding of ERP Variation, Evolution Spreadsheets Text-based process descriptions Data-centric

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes

Challenges of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes Characteristics Coordinating open-ended, highly collaborative processes Both humans and “cognitive agents” Decisions made over time, based on extensive acquisition of knowledge Some best practices but lots of intuition guiding activity Long-running activity (weeks to months to years) Many kinds of activity that MAY be relevant Best practices & patterns available, but buried Mainly based on ERP systems, but … … many manual processes surrounding them Lots of variation, evolution over time In many companies – ad hoc, spreadsheet based

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes Characteristics Challenge Problems Coordination/Collaboration Decisions on Knowledge Very ad hoc, intuitive Long-running Many kinds of activities Best practices hidden Spreadsheets Care & feeding of ERP Variation, Evolution Spreadsheets Text-based process descriptions

Automating the Pipeline from Knowledge Harvesting to Executable Logic in an Agile, Incremental Fashion Current Mode of Operation Near-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Long-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Client policies, Govt. regulations Client policies, Govt. regulations Client policies, Govt. regulations + Automatic Knowledge Harvesting Coarse-grained English process descriptions Coarse-grained English process descriptions Coarse-grained English process descriptions “Crowd Sourcing” + Desktop Procedures Executable Logic Executable Logic SAP code SAP code SAP code Coordination by hand: Monthly runs Ancillary processes (new hire, …) Coordination by machine: Monthly runs Ancillary processes (new hire, …) Coordination by machine: Monthly runs Ancillary processes (new hire, …)

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Power of a Good Model << animated slide >> Good models go beyond description – they support action Selecting the right model for the job matters Example: “Game of 15” Winner: First one to reach exactly 15 with any 3 chips 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 First model – A is and B is – what is B’s move? Second model – – B’s move is 6!