Expert Group on Operational Forecasting (EG-OF) Yuki Honda Co-coordinator of EG-OF Japan Meteorological Agency RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016

EG Members and Contributors Position Member Country Co-coordinators Yuki Honda Japan Ms Irina Zaytseva Uzbekistan Theme Leader in Operational (Weather) Forecasting Process and Support (SWFDP in Southeast Asia and SWFDP in Bay of Bengal) Ms Sunitha D. Santhamma India Mr Vo Van Hoa Viet Nam Theme Leader in Operational Predictions from sub-seasonal to longer-time scale Mr Suhee Park Republic of Korea Theme Leader in Emergency Response Activities Mr Masami Sakamoto Contributors RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Centre Mr Chiashi Muroi RSMC New Delhi - Tropical Cyclones Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra SDS-WAS Asia Node RC Dr Zhang Xiaoye China SWFDP in Central Asia Mr Dmitry Kiktev Russia EG-OF has a similar structure to OPAG-DPFS of WMO CBS.

GDPFS Centers in RA II (as of Dec. 2016) 7 RSMCs with geographical specialization 2 RSMCs with activity specialization on Tropical Cyclone Centre/Typhoon Centre 3 RSMCs with Provision of atmospheric transport modelling 3 Global Producing Centres for Long-range Forecasts 3 Regional Climate Centres + 1 new RCC 1 RSMCs with activity specialization on Atmospheric Sand and Dust storm Forecasts Lead Centre for EPS Verification Lead Centre for Long-range Forecast (LRF) of Multi-model ensemble (MME) Prediction Lead Centre for coordinating the monitoring results of Land Surface Observation in RAII Moscow Obninsk Novosibirsk Khabarovsk Tashkent Seoul Beijing Tokyo New Delhi Jeddah Google Maps

Revision of the Manual on GDPFS (WMO-No.485) CBS approved the new Manual at CBS-16 (Nov.2016) Will be endorsed at EC-69 (2017) Replacement of RSMC with Geographical Specialization The status is retained until Cg-18 (2019). Members hosting RSMCs are requested to map their activities onto one or more of the new following RSMCs: RSMC for Regional Severe Weather Forecasting (SWFDP-like) RSMC for Global NWP RSMC for Limited Area NWP RSMC for Global EPS RSMC for Limited Area EPS

GDPFS Real Time Activities Non-Real Time Activities Customer RSMC for general purpose activities WMC = general RSMC (global DPS/EPS, GPC) RSMC for specialized activities RSMC for non-realtime activities NMC (National Meteorological Centre) NMHS (National Meteorological Hydrological Service) Customer (Public, Media, Humanitarian Agencies …) cbs-16@wmo.int

WMO Technical Progress Report on GDPFS and NWP Research http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/ProgressReports/2014/GDPFS-NWP-2014.html Single source of information on operation al NWP systems and relevant research activities. Aiming to facilitate the Members’ contribution to the Report, the content and reporting method will be reviewed by CBS. Members who operate any NWP systems and/or related applications are encouraged to submit the Report regularly.

User communities, including Disaster Management authorities Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and Cascading Forecasting Process ? Increasing gap in application of advanced 　　　　　　　　　　　　technology in early warnings Goal Improve warnings of severe weather 　　　　　　　　　　　　and lead-time on alerts Improve collaborative working relationships 　　　　　　　　　　　　between NMHSs Provide feedback to global centres on the performance of their models WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap, by applying the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ (regional frameworks) User communities, including Disaster Management authorities Global Centres RSMC Pretoria NMCs 7 7

SWFDP- RA II Southeast Asia (since 2010) WMO 5 countries: Cambodia, Lao PDR Viet Nam, Philippines Thailand Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E, 140°E Global Centres: CMA, JMA, KMA, ECMWF and DWD (for LAM support) Hazards: Heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell Regional Centres: RFSC Ha Noi (Lead centre) RSMC Tokyo (typhoon forecast support) RSMC New Delhi (TC forecast support) Demonstration phase started in 2016

SWFDP- RA II Bay of Bengal (moving to demonstration phase) WMO Focus on: strong winds, thunderstorm, monsoon, heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell) Domain: 10°S, 35°N, 45°E and 110°E Global Centres: IMD, ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material, satellite products) Regional Centres: RSMC New Delhi 6 Countries: Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka & Thailand Demonstration phase likely to start in 2017

SWFDP- RA II Central Asia (Initiated and in the preparatory phase) WMO Focus Heavy Rain and associated hazards (e.g. flooding) Heavy Snow Strong winds Snow storms/blizzards Extreme temperatures Dry spells Domain 29°N - 60°N 25°E - 90°E For Mountainous Region 36°N - 45°N 63°E - 82°E Regional Centre RSMC Tashkent Global Centres RosHydromet, ECMWF CMA, JMA Participating Countries Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan RSMC web portal is ready and the pilot demonstration phase started in 2015. Full demonstration phase is likely to start in 2017

16th Typhoon Committee Attachment Training at the RSMC Tokyo Date and Place: 15 to 26 August 2016 at the JMA Headquarters. Trainees: Mr. Thatsana Chanvilay (Lao PDR), Ms. Shelly Jo Igpuara Ignacio (the Philippines), Ms. Ton Thi Thao (Vietnam), Mr. Nasser Said Abdullah Al Ismaili (Oman), Mr. Habib Rehmat (Pakistan), and Mr. Ponna Handi Chaminda De Silva (Sri Lanka).

16th Typhoon Committee Attachment Training at the RSMC Tokyo Curriculum: Introductory Lectures on Tropical Cyclone, QPE/QPF, Storm Surge, practical training of Tropical Cyclone Analysis & Forecast, Warning Development (new!). Needs & Challenges: 1) Identified needs for training on analysis and forecasts of TC-associated phenomena, such as heavy rainfall and storm surges. 2) Financial resources for inviting PTC members to this training.

Training Activities of RSMC, New Delhi India Meteorological Department Training Activities of RSMC, New Delhi Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Training conducted every year from 2005. This year training conducted during 19-30 September 2016. There were 19 participants including 3 from WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries viz. Bangladesh, Maldives and Pakistan, and 11 participants from India Regional Training Workshop for capacity development in coastal multi hazard early warning system was jointly organised by RSMC, New Delhi & Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad and sponsored by UN-ESCAP at Hyderabad during 19-23 September 2016. In 2015, an advanced training on TC forecasting was conducted by RSMC New Delhi during 03-14 August 2015. There were 16 International participants from WMO/ESCAP Panel and Typhoon Committee member countries and 41 participants from India RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016

Year Name of Training Place Period Countries 2007 WMO TC forecasters training New Delhi 12-23Feb Bangladesh, Myanmar , Sri Lanka 2008 14-25 Feb Srilanka, Thailand 2009 09-20 Feb. Bangladesh, Maldives 2010 1-12 Feb. Myanmar, Srilanka 2011 28Feb.-11Mar. Bangladesh, Oman, Myanmar 2012 20 Feb- 02 Mar. Thailand, Srilanka, Maldives 2013 1-12 April Bangladesh, Myanmar, Oman 2014 17-28Feb Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand WMO training on Dvorak technique and TC forecasting Muscat, Oman 28 Sep.- 02 Oct. WMO/ESCAP Panel countries 2015 WMO Training on TC Forecasting 3-14 Aug. countries, Cambodia, Laos 2016 19-30 Sep. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives Coastal Multi-hazard early warning system organised by INCOIS, RSMC and ESCAP Hyderabad 19-23 Sep. 8 countries from WMO/ESCAP and WMO-Typhoon committee

Emergency Response Activities Masami Sakamoto Theme Leader on ERA Japan Meteorological Agency RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016

Activities regarding Emergency Response Activities [Plans and Status] Task Key Deliverable Activity 2013 2014 2015 2016 Monitoring of the provision of products and services by designated RA-II GDPFS Centres within the framework of the Emergency Response Activities (ERA) • Improve the provision measures for the products and services • Explore of potential registration of non-registered member states. A. Continue email / fax tests to improve reachability for the registered NMHSs done RSMCs and TL-ERA B. Carry out a questionnaire survey for non-registered members. TL-ERA and WMO Secretariat Advising on evolving requirements for ERA operational systems and services • Provide better understanding of ERA. • Monitor of the user requests for ERA to improve the activity C. Provide members with a concise guidance for the standard products and the joint statement of EER. D. Carry out a user request survey All activities planned for 2013 – 2016 ware completed. The expected results were attained. Reachability to registered NMHSs soared, and the communication between RSMCs and NMHSs has been maintained (Activity A). One more NMHS was invited to become one of the registered Members (Activity B). Basic procedures regarding EER were informed responding to some additional dialogs with Members in the region (Activity C). User requests , opinions and suggestions made by Members on ERA were identified. The overall satisfaction rate on ERA seemed good (Activity D).

Activities for 2013 - 2016 A. Carry out email / fax tests in RA-II RSMCs Beijing (China), Obninsk (Russian Fed.), and Tokyo (Japan) continued their efforts to maintain good connectivity to Members. The perfect reachability was attained in 2016 ! B. Carry out a questionnaire survey for non-registered members. The state of Kuwait joined the EER network. C. . Provide members with a concise guidance for the standard products and the joint statement of EER. A guidance material was distributed to all Members in 2014. Some additional dialogues (questions and a request by email, and visit) have made with Members.

Activities in 2016 D. Carry out a user request survey A survey was conducted incorporating 29 registered Members. 17 Members responded to the questionnaire. Findings of the survey include: More than 70% respondents use (or plan to use) ERA service. Regarding overall satisfaction with the current service, the majority (80%) voted “good” or “excellent”. The current exercise frequency (once or twice a year) seems appropriate for majority (65%) of the respondents. Future products discussed by CBS ET-ERA seems favorable. Nearly half of the respondents want to continue the facsimile service.

The Action Plan 2016 - 2019 regarding ERA Task Key Deliverable Activity 2016 2017 2018 2019 Monitoring of the provision of products and services by designated RA-II GDPFS Centres within the framework of the Emergency Response Activities (ERA) Monitoring of and improvement in the provision measures for the ERA products and services A. Continue email / fax tests to maintain good reachability for the registered NMHSs done X RSMCs and TL-ERA Advising on evolving requirements for ERA operational systems and services • Monitor of the user requests for ERA to improve the activity • Enhanced Members' understanding on ERA. B. Carry out a user request survey done　 TL-ERA and WMO Secretariat C. Convey appropriate requests from Members to the expert team of ERA TL-ERA and ET-ERA D. Provide Members with a concise guidance for the transition to the new GDPFS manual regarding EER. It is important and essential to confirm the connectivity to NMHSs (Activities A) Requests and opinions by NMHSs are necessary to improve the activities (Activities B, C) To make the activities useful for NMHS, it is necessary to understand ERA in the new manual (Activity D)

RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016 Thank you Merci RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016