Through Improved Prediction and Impact Modelling Storm Risk Mitigation Through Improved Prediction and Impact Modelling

Contributors

Programme Background Storms have had an increasing social and economic impact over recent years Impacts caused by adverse weather are disproportionately influenced by extremes Climate change is likely to increase costs associated with storm impacts NERC has allocated £4.9m from 2009-2014 to address research gaps, in particular, prediction of mid-latitude storms and their impacts

Programme Background The aim is to improve forecasting of storms and their impacts on catchments and coasts In the short-term 0-48 hours through numerical weather prediction (NWP) And in the long-term over decades and with evolving climate change through improved climate prediction On both timescales there is a need to improve forecasting of impacts

Programme Structure Given the high degree of influence of storms on other natural hazards there is a requirement for improved linkage with impact models To better inform policy To enable measures that minimise storm associated risks This requires information to flow between numerical weather prediction, climate models and impact models The programme has therefore been structured into three interconnecting deliverables

Deliverable 1 Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) increased understanding of and capability to predict mesoscale structures in extra-tropical cyclones. This project is being undertaken by a consortium called DIAMET - DIAbatic influences on MEsoscale structures in extratropical sTorms

DIAMET - outline A ‘field campaign’ using NERC aircraft to investigate mesoscale structures in storms approaching the UK, with high-resolution modelling of these events Use the results of the field campaign to constrain simulations in the Met Office’s Unified model Improve understanding in terms of the fundamental predictability of mesoscale structures

Deliverable 2 Climate Science improved understanding of how climate change and natural variability will affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical cyclones This project is being undertaken by a consortium called TEMPEST - Testing and Evaluating Model Predictions of European Storms

TEMPEST -outline Assessing predicted change in extra-tropical cyclones to inform the next IPCC assessment report Understand which processes are leading to the large spread of climate model predictions for European extra-tropical cyclones Detailed investigation extra-tropical cyclones response to climate change

Deliverable 3 Impacts improved ability to use numerical weather prediction and climate model output for storms impact modelling over a short and long term This project is being undertaken by a consortium called DEMON - Developing enhanced impact models for integration with next generation NWP and climate outputs

DEMON - outline A better understanding of the errors and uncertainties in weather forecast and climate model rainfalls The development of methods to use satellite and airborne data on floods to improve flood forecasts Methods to predict water extents, depths and velocities during floods for whole urban areas down to the resolution of individual buildings

Programme Management Programme Executive Board – joint with CWC Programme Advisory Board: Prof. Denis Peach (Chair), Dr Sean Longfield Dr David Burridge, Prof. Ian Townend Programme/Science Management Team: Dr Helen Beadman, Dr Michal Filtness (NERC) Graham Leeks, Dr Rob Ward, Dr Daren Gooddy, Dr Lucy Ball (CEH/BGS)

Programme Timetable 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014   2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Proposal Calls Proposal assessment Project/Consortium awards Annual Programme meeting Website Development Stakeholder engagement meetings Integration Workshops

Deliverable/Outcomes Development of new/improved models and methodologies Collection of new data High-profile publications Guidance given to the climate impacts assessment community and policymakers regarding the trustworthiness of climate predictions Developing an integrated research community