They Had the Facts, Why Didn’t They Act? Understanding and Improving Public Response to National Weather Service’s Flood Forecasts Rachel Hogan Carr August 9, 2017

Nurture Nature Center is a non-profit organization in Easton, PA, that has been working to educate the public about flooding. NNC has undertaken several projects with NOAA and NWS, including its “Focus on Floods” education campaign, to understand and share information about how the public perceives and acts upon flood risk.

A Key Step in Building a Weather-Ready Nation Social Science: A Key Step in Building a Weather-Ready Nation In 2012, NNC received one of four social science projects awarded to look at decision-making during extreme weather events. Projects are managed through the Office of Weather and Air Quality in the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research with funding from the U.S. Weather Research Program and the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS). In 2014, NOAA Sea Grant and the NJ Sea Grant Consortium funded a project to study NWS’ coastal flood forecast products as part of the Coastal Storm Awareness Program. This presentation was prepared by Nurture Nature Center using federal funds under the Coastal Storm Awareness Program (NOAA awards NA13OAR4830227, NA13OAR4830228, NA13OAR4830229) from the National Sea Grant College Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The federal funds were provided via appropriations under the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 (P.L.113-2) and the Sea Grant Act (33 U.S.C. 1121 et seq.) Funding was awarded to the financial hosts of the Sea Grant College Programs in Connecticut, New Jersey and New York via their financial host insitutions, the University of Connecticut, the New Jersey Seagrant Consortium, and the Research Foundation of State University of New York respectively. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Sea Grant College Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Commerce, nor any of the other listed organizations.

Partners: East Carolina University Rutgers University/Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve RMC Research Corporation (evaluators) National Weather Service (NWS) Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center (NWS) Mt. Holly, NJ Weather Forecast Office (NWS) Binghamton, NY Weather Forecast Office NOAA Sea Grant and NJ Sea Grant Consortium

What Is the Issue? NWS flood forecast and warning tools offer tremendous amounts of timely, accurate data. But: People often don’t respond the way they should to protect life and property. FLOOD RISK AND UNCERTAINTY PROJECT “ What we need now is to package and communicate weather warning information so that people understand it and take the right action with the time they are given.” Gary Szatkowski, Meteorologist in Charge of the NWS Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly NJ WFO

Questions: What tools (NWS and other) are populations in Pennsylvania and New Jersey using to understand their riverine and coastal flood risk? What improvements to these products can make them easier to understand and more likely to motivate people to take protection actions? For coastal: What role can the emergency briefing play in communicating flood risk and motivating protective actions among residential populations? How do people living in the Delaware River Basin understand and use NWS products and services in understanding flood risk? What strategies are important for NWS to consider in preparing/revising its flood forecast and warning products to better motivate flood preparedness and warning response among rural and urban public audiences in the Delaware River Basin?

What Methods Are We Using? Focus groups, surveys and interviews Participants respond to flood tools presented through a scenario format. Riverine: Four focus groups with residents in Easton, PA and Lambertville, NJ (2012-2013) Coastal: Four with Ocean/Monmouth County residents; One focus group with emergency managers; Broadcast Meteorologist Interviews (2014) Both: Surveys with residents Iterative testing of products – two rounds in each community

Focus Groups: A facilitated discussion about the tools 15 participants per session, average, flood-affected individuals Participants give feedback about: Timing of products Graphic design and visual clarity Ways the products motivated action How they share the information with others

Riverine Scenario: A Simulated East Coast Hurricane The 7-day scenario includes a series of products issued by the NWS, including: Hurricane cones Hydrographs Significant River Flood Outlooks Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Flood Watches and Warnings Ensemble forecasts showing uncertainty

NWS Coastal Flood Forecast and Warning Tools: Coastal Scenario: Superstorm Sandy, Actual Products NWS Coastal Flood Forecast and Warning Tools: Extra-Tropical Surge Graphic Surface Prognosis Maps

NWS Coastal Flood Forecast and Warning Tools: Tools Continued… NWS Coastal Flood Forecast and Warning Tools: Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Wind Speed and Direction Maps Briefings…

What did we learn? Local specificity is critical for motivating action River levels are critically important Visual design and language choice can create barriers for people trying to understand and use NWS flood forecast products Residents want to hear detailed action steps – tell them what to do! Coastal residents and emergency managers valued emergency briefings Day T-5 (and T-4) were critical times to receive information through briefings and other means

Emergency Briefings: An Important Resource! Keep them short! Put action steps up front Keep storm details to the back Consider having municipalities distribute

Emergency Briefings: Connecting to the forecaster Inclusion of a “Personal Plea” was highly motivational Briefings can convey tone, and prioritize risk Briefings should be reserved for high-impact events NOAA is the authoritative source for information, but residents expect and want to receive weather information from local municipal officials and EMS

River Levels Matter HYDROGRAPH was the highest-ranked product in riverine communities: “Very clear, easy to read & useful.” High results for visual clarity, usefulness and location specificity. Suggestion: link every flood product to hydrograph

Use Color, and Use It Carefully COLOR in graphics can help or hurt people’s understanding of risk. Participants discussed: Positive use of color (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Confusing use of color (inundation maps and flood outlooks) Lack of color/font variations (Flood Watches and Warnings)

Location Details GEOGRAPHIC SPECIFICITY helps understanding of risk: Use hyper-local info when possible Poor ratings for this product due to lack of location detail Product unhelpful; did not prompt action

OTHER PRODUCTS Extra-Tropical Surge Graphic Clarifies geographic specificity, differentiates between observed and forecast flood levels, provides clearer legend and definition of terms, provides summary at top in red, along with cautionary language and a link to local impacts.

Example of a Draft Mocked-up Hydrograph Incorporates various focus groups recommendations, including the careful use of text, and color variation

Significant River Flood Outlook Example of a Draft Significant River Flood Outlook Adds geographic specificity, demarcates service area boundaries, differentiates between levels of risk and provides more specific legend.

Uncertainty UNCERTAINTY MESSAGES need to be carefully considered. Current ensemble forecast graphics were very confusing Some participants did want to receive uncertainty information Almost no participants could properly interpret the information from the current suite of Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecasts (MMEFS) graphics MMEFS Graphics:

Example of a Draft Mocked-up Uncertainty Graphic Incorporates various focus groups recommendations, including the careful use of text, and color variation

Socialscience.Focusonfloods.org Coastal.Focusonfloods.org Includes : Findings Research bibliography on social science related to flooding Project information Includes : posters, a traveling display and other tools, to explain flood risk and uncertainty Coastal.Focusonfloods.org Project information Videos Resources

Thank you! Rachel Hogan Carr Director Nurture Nature Center Easton, PA www.nurturenaturecenter.org www.focusonfloods.org socialscience.focusonfloods.org rhogan@nurturenature.org 610-253-4432