Fleets for the Future NCTCOG Participant / Stakeholder Outreach Session May 24, 2017 NCTCOG - Arlington, TX.

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Presentation transcript:

Fleets for the Future NCTCOG Participant / Stakeholder Outreach Session May 24, 2017 NCTCOG - Arlington, TX

Stephe Yborra - Managing Director Natural Gas Vehicles / Propane Autogas Vehicles and Related Fueling Infrastructure Summary of Attributes, Best Applications and Deployment Program Implementation Best Practices Stephe Yborra - Managing Director Yborra & Associates

Benefits of Gaseous Fuel Vehicles Reduced emissions Displacement of gasoline and diesel fuels with abundant, domestically produced fuel Lower and more stable fuel costs Lower maintenance costs Lower total cost of ownership (TCO) (Determinants: duty-cycle, fuel use, incremental cost, maintenance, vehicle life)

Reduced emissions as compared to gasoline- and diesel-powered counterparts; plus/minus compared to BEV/PHEV NGVs and propane autogas vehicles produce very low emissions Criteria Pollutants NOx PM Greenhouse Gases Total emissions footprint comprises upstream/source of energy as well as tailpipe emissions (“wells-to-wheels”)

Displacement of gasoline and diesel with abundant, domestically produced fuel 99+% of natural gas is from North America; Estimated resources project 100+ year supply Huge increase in propane supply from NG exploration has diminished importance of supply from oil refining and related volatility tied to oil pricing Natural Gas Propane

Lower and more stable fuel costs Vehicular natural gas and propane autogas both enjoy pump price advantage compared to gasoline and diesel Historically, the differential has been between 15-60+% for natural gas and 30-50% for propane autogas. Contemporaneous differentials for each fuel vary by region based on the component costs of each fuel. Propane autogas and vehicular natural gas each have had the “upper hand” at various times….again, due to impacts on component costs of each fuel

Component costs of CNG Fluctuations in commodity price of (uncompressed) natural gas have minor impact on pump price as it represents only 15- 20% of pump price, whereas oil is 50-70% of gasoline or diesel pump price. CNG station development and O&M costs represent largest portion of CNG pump price

Component costs of propane autogas Energy source costs and processing costs (oil refinery, natural gas liquids separation plant) Storage either at or near processing location or transported to other storage facility. Transportation costs between Production/processing and storage Between storage terminal and local distributor/marketer’s secondary storage. Distributor’s handling and delivery fees from secondary storage to customer by truck

Lower maintenance costs Technology is similar, but requires some additional training. Most systems work i/c/w OEM ECMs and OBD tools. Some tasks added, others eliminated. Minor parts inventory differences Fleets report lower maintenance costs on LDVs, MDVs; HDV costs slightly higher or lower depending on duty-cycle. Lower carbon = cleaner combustion = less soot = less engine wear, extended oil change intervals, less fouling of injectors and valves Service options Through OEM dealer or (for HDVs) regional Cummins Westport center Through the authorized aftermarket retrofit system installer By the fleet’s own internal technical staff No federal technician certification/licensing requirements; Voluntary ASE accreditation is available. Basic PM training is recommended as is fuel system inspection training for CNG

Key Attributes and Best Applications Return-to-base operations, repetitive route, or pre-set geographic operating areas Higher fuel use -> better economics Other determinants: Sustainability, AFV technology leadership by example; Fuel diversity Vehicle type Fuel consumption Regional/ long haul freight trucks 18-22k DGE/year Transit buses 11-13k DGE/year Refuse/Concrete trucks, plows 7.5-10k DGE/year Municipal sweepers 5-6k DGE/year Shuttles 5.5-7.5k GGE/year Local goods/services delivery vans and trucks: food/bev, laundries, pkg. delivery, appliances/furniture 7-10k DGE/year Taxis, police cars 4.5-5.5k GGE/year School buses 2.5-3k GGE/year Utility trucks, high-mileage pick-ups 2-2.5k GGE/year Sedan, utility/telecom van, PWD pick-ups 1.2-1.5k GGE/year

Municipal applications well-suited to NGVs and propane autogas vehicles Vehicle type Configurations Providers Fuel options Sedan/SUV/crossover Sub-compact through full size; police pursuit vehicle option Aftermarket CNG or propane; Bi-fuel or dedicated Pickup trucks ½-ton, ¾-ton, 1-ton, with multiple cab-chassis and bed configurations Light duty vans (Class 1-2) Multiple cab-chassis and cutaway options; cargo and passenger configurations Class 3-6 work trucks (e.g., utility trucks, dump-plow trucks, service step-vans) Cab-chassis, cutaway and strip-chassis configurations for additional upfitting CNG or propane; Mostly dedicated Class 4-6 shuttle buses: Cab-chassis and cutaway configurations; strip-chassis options for trolleys School buses Type A, C and D OEM CNG or propane; Dedicated only Refuse trucks Cab-forward (CF), cab-over-engine (COE) and conventional CNG only; Dedicated only Transit buses 30’, 35’ and 40’ transit buses, 60’ articulated buses and 45’ commuter coaches CNG for all types, propane for buses less than 35’; Dedicated only Street sweepers  

Available LDVs and MDVs (slide 1) Sedans, SUVs and Cross-overs Cargo and passenger vans (½, ¾, 1-ton)

Available LDVs and MDVs (slide 2) Pick-up trucks (½, ¾, and 1-ton) in various cab configurations Class 3-7 C/C platforms for upfitting

OEM Vocational/Specialty Trucks Freightliner M2-112, 114SD Kenworth T470, W900S Peterbilt LCF320, 337, 348, 384, 365, Mack TerraPro LE, LR Autocar ACXpeditor, XSpotter Elgin Broom Bear Schwarze A7000 Tymco 500X Capacity TJ900 Kalmar Ottawa 4x2

OEM Local-Regional Haul Class 8 Tractors Freightliner Cascadia 113, M2-112 Kenworth T440, T660, T680, T880, Volvo VNM, VNL Peterbilt 365, 567, 384, 579, Mack Pinnacle International TranStar

OEM Transit/School Bus New Flyer 30/35/40 LF NABI/Optima 35/40 LF, BRT ElDorado Axess, ERII, TMR Gillig LF Nova Bus LF GreenLine Bus MCI Coach Thomas Saf-T-Liner HDX (IV), C2 (III) Blue Bird All-American RE (IV) and Vision (III) IC (International) Bus (III)

Aftermarket retrofits Most aftermarket retrofits are done immediately after leaving factory prior to delivery to the customer or, if not, very soon thereafter Goal: Optimize payback and operate as little as possible on gas/diesel Exception: HDV Repowers Numerous dual fuel and several S.I.N.G. repower options for diesel platforms (7.6 – 15L engines)

Stakeholders potentially involved in the gaseous fuel vehicle build process Process is generally different for HDVs than LDVs and MDVs Aftermarket Retrofit System Manufacturer 2nd stage Body Manufacturer OEM Auto/Truck Dealer Customer Aftermarket Retrofit System Installer 2nd stage Body Installer Manufacture vehicle Replace conventional fuel system with alt fuel system Customize vehicle body to suit specific needs Deliver vehicle to customer (via dealer) Steps #2 + #3 may be done by a wide range of independent actors and also can be done in a “one-stop-shop” manner by qualified entities.

Fueling Options: Utilize existing fueling infrastructure Proximity/time-convenience value proposition? Capacity to handle needs (flow, access)?

Current CNG Public-Access Stations in Region ~25 in the Dallas Ft Worth metro area 75+ in entire state of Texas

Current LPG Public-Access Stations in Region 6 in the Dallas Ft Worth metro area 20+ in entire state of Texas

Fueling Options: Utilize existing fueling infrastructure Proximity/time-convenience value proposition? Capacity to handle needs (flow, access)? Arrange for mobile fueling Distance and associated transportation costs spread across volume Build fueling infrastructure on site or nearby Assessment of current and future needs Amortization of station capex and O&M Different business models available

Fueling Options: CNG Capital costs associated with CNG are greater than costs for traditional liquid fuels and/or propane autogas. Greater CNG production and use --> better economies of scale (lower capex and O&M cost/GGE). Assessing needs; evaluating pros/cons of time-fill versus fast-fill and/or combination of both Time-fill equipment packages available from 4-100+ GGE/hour. Ability to start small, modular growth Time-fill is generally, lower cost than fast-fill Fast-fill allows for public access, which generates load, which improves economics  lower pump price. Volume is the key…. Minimum “threshold” of at least 125,000 GGE/ year (preferably 300K+) Fast-fill relies on “right balance” of production capacity and storage to meet demand. Ability to project maximum hourly and daily load profiles is critical. Several ownership/O&M business models available to accommodate fleets’ different risk tolerances, available budgets and technical capabilities

Fueling options: propane autogas Very similar to traditional liquid fuels: storage tank, dispenser(s), deliveries by supplier Fairly low cost system ($30K - $400K) As little as 1,000 up to 50,000 gallon tanks available Ability to project demand profile helps optimize equipment selection, reduces delivery costs Different station ownership business models available including own, lease and/or embed into contract fuel price

Gaseous fuel vehicle aggregated purchase procurement best practices Identify vehicles/platforms most likely to garner greatest interest through surveys, reviews of previous years’ purchases, follow-up interviews. Types of vehicles needed, their primary application/duty-cycle Preferred powertrain requirements (2WD, 4WD) Cab requirements (standard, extended, crew.) Required/preferred fuel capacity; dedicated/bi-fuel Potential quantities of each in the current and future FYs Perceptions of existing fueling infrastructure and identification of preferences versus requirements

Gaseous fuel vehicle aggregated purchase procurement best practices Promote bundled bids and facilitate communication between potential supplier stakeholders Widen bid solicitation outreach via AFV trade press and associations; assist local OEM dealer relationships with retrofit system suppliers Reach out to private fleets to assess interest and potential collaboration to promote fueling infrastructure Procurement language Assure compliance with emissions regulations (EPA/CARB certs.) Require that vehicle is built to safety standards (NFPA 52, 58) Clarify warranty implications and responsibilities Clarify maintenance tasks and technician staff training

VW Settlement Funding Basis for settlement is excess NOx emissions from 580,000 VW, Audi and Porsche vehicles (2.0L and 3.0L) $10B Customer buy-back/fix-remediate/compensate $2.0B ZEV Commitment $2.925B Environmental Mitigation Trust (EMT); 10-15 year outlay $200+ Million for Texas Applies to Class 4-8 vehicles; Repower or replace diesel vehicles with newer cleaner engine/vehicle (including scrapping old vehicle if replacement); clean- diesel, CNG/LNG, LPG, EV/HEV/PHEV qualify Program sets % MAX limits for various technologies but States may design and manage their own program grant guidelines (within those limits) Best use of EMT funding is NGV and/or propane repower/replacement of older larger diesels (e.g., trucks, shuttles, buses); these applications provide largest NOx reductions per dollar spent and for greatest deployment of AFVs for the dollars allocated.

Thank You. Stephe Yborra, Yborra & Associates. (301) 829-2520 Thank You! Stephe Yborra, Yborra & Associates (301) 829-2520 stephe@yborraservices.com

Fleets for the Future NCTCOG Participant / Stakeholder Outreach Session May 24, 2017 NCTCOG - Arlington, TX