Potential of ‘Low Cost Smart Weapons’, Developed from UAV Platforms Authors: Assoc Prof. Valentin Penev, Gary Rowlands, Assistant Prof. George Georgiev, Assoc Prof. Plamena Zlateva,

Drones in Society…… Impact on all of our lives, some ‘+’ some ‘-’ Humanitarian Uses Sovereign Force Use Opportunities for business services, developers, operators and clients who will benefit from the huge amount of data collected at a much reduced cost BUT

The push and desire to integrate these vehicles has a dark and unfortunate potential flip side. Their use as a weapon

We will mention Some facts about the abilities of current RPAS/UAS technologies Contributing factors to fears surrounding this subject An example or two of quotes from (U.S.) government departments Cost considerations An Example of such a system

FACT….Dramatic improvements in robotics, artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing (also known as 3D printing), and nanotechnology are dramatically changing the character of conflict and threat levels in all domains. This increase provides smaller powers with capabilities that used to be the preserve of major powers. Moreover, these small, smart, and cheap weapons based on land, sea, or air may be able to dominate combat and the ability to attack. QUOTE…This new diffusion of power has major implications for the conduct of warfare and national strategy. Because even massive investment in mature technology leads to only incremental improvement in capabilities, the proliferation of many small and smart weapons may simply overwhelm a few exceptionally capable and complex systems. The advances may force many countries to rethink their procurement plans, force structure, and force posture. The diffusion of power will also greatly complicate responses to various crises, reduce the ability to influence events with military force, and should require policymakers and military planners to thoughtfully consider future policies and strategy.

Some Examples of ‘Relevant’ Smart Guided Weapons Almost all types of precision guided weapons could be manufactured from relatively cheap UAV / RC components: Radio-controlled weapons Infrared-guided / electro-optical weapons Laser-guided weapons Satellite-guided weapons Guided small arms

Some Guided Munition ‘+’s A Precision-Guided Munition (PGM) smart weapon, smart munition, smart bomb, is a guided munition with potential to precisely hit a specific target, and to minimize collateral damage. Even modest improvements in accuracy enable a target to be attacked with fewer or smaller bombs. If some guided weapons miss, it is relatively cheap and fast to send more The harm to civilians and the amount of collateral damage may be reduced.

Satellite-guided weapons Lessons learned during the first Gulf War showed the value of precision munitions. The problem of poor visibility does not affect satellite-guided weapons . These weapons can be employed in all weather conditions, without any need for ground support. Because it is possible to jam GPS, the guidance packages can reverts to inertial navigation in the event of GPS signal loss. Inertial navigation is significantly less accurate; the JDAM achieves a published Circular Error Probability (CEP) of 13 m under GPS guidance, but typically only 30 m under inertial guidance. The precision of these weapons is dependent both on the precision of the measurement system used for location determination and the precision in setting the coordinates of the target. However, if the targeting information is accurate, satellite-guided weapons are significantly more likely to achieve a successful strike in any given weather conditions than any other type of precision-guided munition. A commercially available UAV system can now also offer this level of all weather accuracy for much less money

Evolving Technologies As noted in the introduction, we are currently in an area of rapidly evolving technologies that, when combined, may radically alter the way we perceive threat and how we counter that threat. This section considers how a few of the new technologies that are already changing our lives will also impact how threats are perceived and how wars are fought. We will look at some of these………

For Instance… Additive Manufacturing Nanotechnology ‘Artificial’ and ‘SWARM’ Intelligence Drone Specific Sensors ( Size and Weight )

Additive Manufacturing Allows cheap, fast, accurate production of almost all parts required to produce an effective device. Materials include metals such as Titanium and Aluminium, Plastics in many forms including mixed printing and internally reinforced parts. Rubbers and Nylons can be printed

Nanotechnology Will are available to more and more groups who may decide to include this technology into main stream devices

Artificial and SWARM Intelligence Only years ago these ‘flying swarms’ were in their infancy. That is not the case today. Advances in low cost communication modules and control systems allow LARGE NUMBERS of drones to direct themselves towards a common end, without human interaction.

SWARM NUMBERS 16th Sept 2015 Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey California managed to fly 50 fixed wing drones as a swarm in the name of research. 11th Jan 2016 Intel claim record with 100 multi rotors all under swarm intelligent control BACK

Drone Specific Sensors It is almost impossible to perceive of a sensor which cannot now be carried by drone. Sensors for Optical Imaging, Lidar, Radiation, Chemical substances and gasses, Magnetism and much more

Strategic Implications Technological convergence will provide much smaller powers — and even small groups AND Individuals— with capabilities that used to be the preserve of major powers. The proliferation of these capabilities will greatly complicate responses to various crises and will reduce the ability to influence events with military force. Important factors will have direct strategic impact, such as: The loss of immunity to attack, the tactical dominance of defense, almost impossible task of tracking materials required to construct small weapon platforms in their thousands

Quotes…More Fully….. Loss of Immunity to Attack: Many forces will cease to have a monopoly on short-range, precision strike capabilities. Many insurgent or terrorist groups, will be able to project force at short range. Short-range drone aircraft provide the capability to strike critical infrastructure objects with no efforts. Of more immediate concern will be the far larger number of weapons that can hit in- theater bases. Advances in additive manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and composite materials; improved energy densities in gel fuels; new energy-reflecting coatings; and nanoexplosives mean there are powerful, autonomous, stealthy drones in our immediate future. Defending against this threat is possible but expensive — particularly when the cost of defending against these weapons is compared to the cost of employing them. And would the benefits of doing so outweigh the costs?

Tactically Dominant Defense: Drone swarms may make defense the dominant form of warfare in ground, air, sea, and space domains. Drone swarms may also be able to attack the physical elements that support the cyber domain. The U.S. Department of Defense needs to run rigorous experiments to understand the character of such a conflict. If the experiments show defense to be tactically dominant, DoD will have to work out how U.S. forces can still achieve their inherently offensive operational and strategic mission effectiveness.

A Military Perspective…Implications for the Modern Battlefield: Land, Sea, Air, Space. For much less than the price of a precision fuze, commercially available autonomous drones will provide greater range than artillery without artillery’s large logistics and training tail. These drones, deployed in large numbers, will provide a particularly nasty challenge for ground forces. Today, even relatively light forces are dependent on vehicles and helicopters for support. For over a decade, forces have struggled with hunting IEDs to ensure the ability to move about the battlespace. A simple explosively formed projective device mounted on a commercial drone would give an insurgent the ability to hunt targets such as vehicles, helicopters, airfields, fuel farms, and ammo dumps. Today, hobbyists can track and close with moving vehicles under conditions similar to those needed to engage a military convoy. Optical recognition software would allow such a weapon to autonomously identify and engage many of those targets. When one combines simple drones with additive manufacturing, ground forces face the real possibility of confronting thousands of smart drones in wave attacks.(SWARM)

‘SWARM’ v ‘Conventional Aircraft’ ( Costs & Effectiveness ) 45,000,000 USD Aircraft (Recon, A2A,A2G) Cost 45,000,000usd 1 x airframe Total Payload 5000Kg Range 3,336Km 3m Drone FW ( Recon, A2G ) Cost 1,300 usd each = 34,615 drones Total Payload 3kg x 34,615 = 103,845 Kg Travelled 20,769,000 Km Flexibility, No Pilot Loss Possible, Munition reflects target

Practical example: What we need to develop a ‘Smart Munition about 1/ 1.5m wingspan’ Desire and a little money (Less than 300 Euros) Access to the internet A good RC Model shop We need a platform which could be: Multi Rotor (available in almost and size ) Fixed wing (****OUR CHOICE HERE****) Powered glider ( Take your choice ) Rotary wing ( Not so popular – Thank Goodness ) Parachute (available in almost any size )

Practical example: What we need to develop a ‘Smart Munition’ Somethng like this ?

Practical example: What we need to develop a ‘Smart Munition’ We need Flight Control System such as the FLCS2.2. with: GPS module Communication Module AND IN SOME CASES We need a video link

Practical example: What we need to develop a ‘Smart Munition’ That system could form part of this: Optically Guided Parachute Descending System Once the OGPDS is in the air, a ‘RAM’ or ‘Ring’, parachute opens and the FLCS2.2 controls the attitude and position of the system. The flight control system is able to work in INS or INS/GPS modes. At the same time the optical system can search out, recognize, lock and track the target according to the mode selected. The optical system can pass command to the FLCS2.2. OR A secure ‘Double Data Link’ allows the operator to manually lock the target, then the system does the rest

Conclusions WE NEED TO BE FASTER !! Drones, in the wrong hands ARE DANGEROUS We have some hard work ahead to imagine the potential ways of using these things and defending ourselves as best as we can from them We need to work together , scientists, military, manufacturers, users, politicians and we need to be flexible because the potential and technology involved is fast moving, WE NEED TO BE FASTER !!

Thank You Any Questions Please Should focus be on development or detection Should embedded safety be used Only low accuracy devices be available without licence Should we follow the U.S. option of embedding a SIM card in every craft Would it really matter….

Practical example: What we need to develop a ‘Smart Munition’ We could even use a ‘Visual Homing System’ BACK

Parachutes BACK