December 5, 2016 Conducting the Exit Polls in the U.S.: Methodological Issues and Current Challenges December 5, 2016

Joe Lenski Executive Vice President and co-founder of Edison Research Statistical Associate – CBS News, Election & Survey Unit: 1987-1989 Consultant – Voter Research & Surveys and Voter News Service: 1990-1994 Decision Team Analyst – CNN and CBS News: 1996-2002

Edison Research: Exit Polling Edison Research currently conducts all United States exit polling for the National Election Pool (NEP), consisting of ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press Major election exit polls include: California Recall Election, October 2003 Kentucky and Mississippi Governor Election, November 2003 23 Democratic Presidential Primaries & Caucuses, January to March 2004 General Election, November 2004 General Election, November 2006 40 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses, January to June 2008 General Election, November 2008 Georgia Senate Run-off, December 2008 General Election, November 2008 (NJ & VA Gov., NYC Mayor) General Election, November 2010 20 Republican Presidential Primaries & Caucuses, January to April 2012 General Election, November 2012 NYC Democratic Primary for Mayor, September 2013 General Election, November 2013 (NJ & VA Gov., NYC Mayor) General Election, November 2014 Chicago Mayoral Election, April 2015 28 Presidential Primaries & Caucuses, February to May 2016 General Election, November 2016

Edison Research: Exit Polling International exit polls conducted by Edison Research include: Azerbaijan Parliamentary Election, November 2005 Tbilisi, Georgia Mayoral Election, May 2010 Georgia Parliamentary Election, October 2012 Venezuela Presidential Election, October 2012 Cyprus Presidential Election, February 2013 Iraq Parliamentary Election, April 2014

Scope of 2016 Exit Polling 933 polling locations in 2016 Presidential Election More than 110,000 interviews conducted More than 70,000 questionnaires processed on Election Day, including more than 16,000 telephone surveys of absentee and early voters Computer system takes in data and delivers results in real-time to dozens of news organizations around the world Computations conducted and exit poll analysis delivered for 28 state surveys and one nationally-representative survey

Current issues in exit polling Increasing proportion of results being cast before election day Decreasing response rates Differential non-response rates Interviewer-respondent interaction Security of exit poll data before poll closing

Current issues in exit polling: Absentee & Early Voting Many states have extended the ability of voters to cast votes before election day either through in-person early voting or by-mail absentee voting The percentage of voters who cast their vote before election has increased from 16% in 2000 to an estimated 22% in 2004 and it grew to 34% in 2008, 35% in 2012 & 2014 and an estimated 41% in 2016 Three states – Colorado, Oregon and Washington - now conduct all voting by mail – ten other states – Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas – have more than 50% of votes cast before election day

Current issues in exit polling: Absentee & Early Voting Voters who cast votes before election day can not be interviewed at the polling place on election day In states that have in-person early voting, Edison Research has experimented with using exit polling methodology at early voting centers – however this adds a sampling factor of time since votes can be cast over a two to three week period In order to include absentee and early voters in our surveys the NEP conducts telephone surveys of absentee/early votes in more than a dozen states with a high proportion of early voting, and merges that data with surveys of voters conducted on election day

Current issues in exit polling: Decreasing response rates %

Current issues in exit polling: Decreasing response rates Exit polls in the United States had been experiencing a consistent drop in response rates: 2000 General Election 54% 2004 General Election 53% 2006 General Election 45% 2008 Presidential Primaries 43% 2008 General Election 46% 2010 General Election 45% 2012 General Election 48% 2014 General Election 45% 2016 General Election 44% However, response rates for exit polls in other countries where exit polls are a new phenomenon are higher – for example, Edison Research conducted its first exit poll in Puerto Rico for the Democratic Presidential Primary in June 2008 and the response rate was 66%

Current issues in exit polling: Decreasing response rates Other factors effecting response rates: Distance that exit poll interviewer is forced to stand away from polling location exit Weather conditions Multiple exits at polling location Cooperation of local election officials In response, the NEP has successfully won legal challenges to 100 foot distance restrictions on exit poll interviewing in six states – Florida, Nevada, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio and South Dakota The NEP has also introduced smaller questionnaires to help improve response rates

Current issues in exit polling: Differential non-response rates There are differential non-response rates by demographic groups. The Edison Research exit polls are able to adjust for non-response by age, race and gender; however, other demographic categories – education, income, political party – can not be identified visually by exit poll interviewers

FAST FACTS ON EXIT POLLING Current issues in exit polling: Differential non-response rates Republican Party web site posted attacks against the reliability of exit poll on election day 2006 and this can help explain why Republicans tend to be less likely to participate in exit polls   BEWARE OF EXIT POLLS Biased And Inaccurate Predictions Have Led To Poor GOP Exit Poll Showings In Past Three National Elections _______________________________________ FAST FACTS ON EXIT POLLING Election Experts Believe Exit Polls Give An Edge And Sway Towards Democrat Candidates. EXIT POLLS TRADITIONALLY HAVE A DEMOCRAT BIAS http://www.gop.com/news/NewsRead.aspx?Guid=f9c111ec-e4de-4f7d-a5fd-3a8b1b4e30a7

Current issues in exit polling: Interviewer-respondent interaction There is evidence of interviewer-respondent interactions that affect both the response rates by demographic group and the accuracy of exit poll estimates Older voters are less likely to complete an exit poll questionnaire handed to them by a younger interviewer White voters are less likely to complete an exit poll questionnaire handed to them by an African-American interviewer

Current issues in exit polling: Security of exit poll data before poll closing The national news organizations have made a pledge to Congress that they will not report any exit poll results that “characterize” the outcome of the election until all polls in that state have closed In 2004 early exit poll results were leaked to several internet web sites before the polls closed Beginning in 2006 the NEP established a “Quarantine Room” in which a limited number of survey data analysts were allowed to have access to the exit poll data before 5PM

Question Answer Total CLINTON TRUMP JOHNSON STEIN OTHER FAVHCLIN16 (n=4819) FAVORABLE 43 96 3 1 UNFAV 55 11 81 6 2   FAVTRUMP (n=4819) 38 4 95 60 77 15 5 FAVPRES16 (n=4819) BOTH - ONLYCLINTON 41 98 ONLYTRUMP 36 NEITHER 18 30 47 16

Question Answer Total CLINTON TRUMP JOHNSON STEIN OTHER CLINHONEST (n=4863) YES 36 94 4 1   NO 61 20 72 2 TRUMPHONEST (n=4863) 33 6 64 71 3 HONEST16 (n=4863) BOTH - ONLYCLINTON 34 97 ONLYTRUMP 31 98 NEITHER 29 40 43 8 5

Question Answer Total CLINTON TRUMP JOHNSON STEIN OTHER QUALCLINTON (n=4758) YES 52 86 9 3 1 NO 47 5 88 4   QUALTRUMP (n=4758) 38 94 61 75 17 2 QUALIFIED16 (n=4758) BOTH 22 71 6 ONLY CLINTON 46 ONLY TRUMP 32 98 - NEITHER 15 66 11

Question Answer Total CLINTON TRUMP JOHNSON STEIN OTHER QLT16 (n=9682) CARES 15 57 34 3 CHANGE 39 14 82 1 EXPERIENCE 22 90 7 JUDGMENT 20 65 25 6

Question Answer Total CLINTON TRUMP JOHNSON STEIN OTHER TIME16MONTH (n=4819) LASTMONTH 26 40 48 7 2 4 BEFORE 73 51 45 1