America’s Current Politics: The Consumer’s Perspective Scott Keeter Senior Survey Advisor skeeter@pewresearch.org Consumer Federation of America Consumer Assembly 2017 May 10, 2017 May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
What is Pew Research Center? Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. The Center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research. It studies U.S. politics and policy; journalism and media; internet, science and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and trends; and U.S. social and demographic trends. All of the Center’s reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. Follow us on Twitter at: @pewresearch @facttank May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
In historical terms, low approval ratings in Trump’s first few months Presidential job approval (%) Source: Survey conducted April 5-11, 2017. www.pewresearch.org May 11, 2017
Presidential job approval (%) Partisan gap in Trump approval ratings much wider than for recent presidents Presidential job approval (%) Source: Survey conducted April 5-11, 2017 May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Republican views of Congress improve May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Public mood shifts in direction of bigger government % who say they would rather have… Source: Survey conducted Apr. 5-11, 2017. May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Errors in state polling were worse in 2016 than in recent years Figure 2. Average Error in Vote Margin in State Presidential Polls, 2000-2016. Source – Figures for 2000 to 2012 computed from data made public by FiveThirtyEight.com. May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
But national polling was quite accurate Average Error in Vote Margin in National Presidential Polls, 1936-2016. Note – The 2016 figures are based on polls completed within 13 days of the election. Figures for prior years are from the National Council for Public Polls analysis of final poll estimates, some occurring before the 13-day period. Figures for 1936 to 1960 are based only on Gallup. May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
The Late Deciders (in the last week) Rep-Dem Margin Trump/Clinton % Share (%) National +5 47-42 13 Wisconsin +29 59-30 14 Pennsylvania +17 54-37 15 Florida 55-38 11 Michigan +11 50-39 Ohio +3 46-43 Virginia -3 42-45 May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Voters who disliked both candidates preferred Trump to Clinton Favorable impression… In 2012, just 5% disliked both candidates! NBC News exit poll, November 8, 2016 May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
America’s Current Politics: The Consumer’s Perspective Scott Keeter Senior Survey Advisor skeeter@pewresearch.org Consumer Federation of America Consumer Assembly 2017 May 10, 2017 May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Trump’s chances as described by polling aggregators and modelers May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Trump’s chances as seen in “risk characterization theater” Source: Justin H. Gross, based on Rifken and Bouwer’s The Illusion of Certainty: Health Benefits and Risks. Washington Post, Nov. 29, 2016 May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Presidential candidate preference, by educational attainment Wide education gaps in 2016 preferences, among all voters and among whites Presidential candidate preference, by educational attainment Source: Based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Poll, as reported by CNN. May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Democratic advantage among the youngest voters declines in 2016 Presidential candidate preference, by age Source: Based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Poll, as reported by CNN. May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
How whites, blacks and Hispanics voted in 2016 election Presidential candidate preference, by race or ethnicity Source: Based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Poll, as reported by CNN. May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Gender gap in vote choice: 1972-2016 Presidential candidate preference, by gender Source: Based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Poll, as reported by CNN. May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org
Immigrants are seen as more of a strength than a burden % who say immigrants today … % who say immigrants strengthen country… Source: Survey conducted Nov. 30-Dec. 5, 2016. May 11, 2017 www.pewresearch.org