The state of THE State Constitution Political Science 103A, Lecture #2

California’s Year of Reform? How Well (or Poorly) Does California Government Perform Today? Conventional Commentary and Academic Research How Should it be Fixed? What’s the Right Process? Proposed Solutions UC San Diego’s Role in Reform

Our Twin Challenges Partisan Polarization in Legislature Per Capita State Spending (LAO)

Judging California Today California’s Two Governments Legislation: A majoritarian system Budget and Taxes: A consensus (2/3) system shifting half way to a majoritarian system Two Ways to Evaluate Government Efficiency: How quickly are issues resolved? Responsiveness: Does the final decision reflect what voters want?

Legislative Efficiency: Does Polarization Predict Gridlock?

Legislative Representation (Best in the Nation) From analysis of 39 policy areas by Justin Phillips and Jeff Lax (Columbia University)

Budget Efficiency: Delays No Matter Who is in Charge Dept. of Finance data courtesy of Eric McGhee

Budget Representation Recipe for Solving Deficits: Leans right lately Long tradition of mixing cuts with tax increases 2009, 2011 red budgets in a blue state

Are We in a Constitutional Crisis? Partisan Polarization is Here to Stay Sacramento’s divide reflects demographic trends across the state, voters matching ideology to party (not just gerrymander) Our Two Governments Perform Differently Our majoritarian legislative process works better than the budget, but is far from perfect Popular Consensus on Problems, Less Consensus on Solutions

Constitutional Convention Three Routes to Reform Voters Constitutional Convention Legislative Revision Piecemeal Reform

Constitutional Convention Convention Call 2/3 of legislators (or perhaps a citizen initiative) Must be accepted by a simple majority of voters Meeting of Convention Deliberative process may revise, proposing “changes in the nature of our basic governmental plan” Public Vote on Revisions Simple majority in statewide election needed

Constitutional Conventions: A Risky Route

Legislative Revision Passage by Legislative Supermajority Deliberative Process Revision Commission appointed by legislature, or Legislators themselves in committee and on floor Passage by Legislative Supermajority 2/3 vote of both houses, which can guarantee consensus (1960s) or gridlock (1990s) Public Vote on Revisions Simple majority in statewide election needed

Piecemeal Reform: Constitutional Amendments from Citizens or Legislators Constrained in Scope and Breadth May only amend, not revise, the constitution May only cover a “single subject” Authored by Citizens or Legislators Any citizen group with $2 million to qualify for ballot, Legislature via 2/3 vote in both houses Public Vote on Revisions Simple majority in statewide election needed

An Appetite for Constitutional Reform October, 2009 Field Poll on Reform 51-38% favor “fundamental changes” to constitution 51-39% prefer convention to legislative commission 32% would be “very likely” to serve as delegates 48-42% think illegal immigration should be part of constitutional debate But few specific reforms have majority support, and “Repair California” convention call fizzled

So, What Reforms do Voters Want? Traditional Polls Ask Voters for Quick Judgments About Complex Issues (October 2009 Field Poll): 23% support for flattening California’s income tax 23% support for creating a new type of sales tax 27% support for allowing legislature to raise taxes with a majority rather than 2/3 vote 37% support for limiting Prop. 13 protections to houses

Alternative Approach: Get California Together in a Room June 2011 “deliberative poll” on constitutional reform in California 400 randomly sampled voters spent a weekend together in Torrance after doing “homework” Polled on Friday and Sunday

Deliberation Led to Consensus

Piecemeal Reform Round 1 (2010) June 2010 Primary November 2010 General Prop. 14 -- PASSED Creates a “top-two” primary designed to open the door to legislative moderation Prop. 15 -- FAILED Allows a pilot program of public financing in Secretary of State elections, funded by tax on lobbyists Vote for Budget Changes from 2/3 to 50%+1 (P) Vote For Fees Changes from 50%+1 to 2/3 (P) Protect City Finances (P) Expand Citizens Redistricting Commission to Congress (P) Eliminate Citizens Redistricting Commission (F)

Piecemeal Reform, Round Two (2012) June 2012 Primary November 2012 General Election Prop. 28 -- Amends term limits by allowing legislators to spend up to 12 years in one house of state legislature Does not apply to today’s legislators Passed 61-39% Series of budget reforms from deliberative poll, backed by California Forward and Think Long (Prop. 31) FAILED Competing tax increases from Governor PASSED and Molly Munger FAILED (30 and 38) Redistricting referendum (40) FAILED Limits on corporate giving, union fundraising and giving (32) FAILED

CaliforniaChoices.org website viewed by 100,000 Californians for an average of 5 minutes in the weeks leading up to the November, 2012 election