Part A: Global Environment

Chart A.26 Global growth projections have been revised up slightly, though they are still below pre-crisis levels International annual GDP growth projections Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Bank calculations.

Chart A.27 Credit continues to grow rapidly in China China non-financial sector debt and growth of total social financing Sources: BIS total credit statistics, CEIC and Bank calculations. Non-financial sector debt data are to 2016 Q4. Includes lending by all sectors at market value as a percentage of GDP, adjusted for breaks. Total social financing adjusted for net issuance of local government bonds. The People’s Bank of China stock of total social financing used from December 2014 onwards. Prior to this the stock of total social financing is estimated using monthly ‘newly increased’ total social financing flows..

Chart A.28 Exports to China account for an increasing share of value added in many countries Domestic value added in exports to China Sources: OECD Trade in Value Added database and Bank calculations.

Chart A.29 UK banks’ claims on non-China EMEs have fallen back to broadly match those on China and Hong Kong UK-owned banking groups’ consolidated exposures to selected countries and regions Sources: Bank of England and Bank calculations..

Chart A.30 Non-performing loan ratios are still high for banks in some European countries Ratio of non-performing loans and advances to total loans and advances (2016 Q4) Sources: European Banking Authority and Bank calculations. ‘Scandinavia’ refers to banks in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. ‘Periphery excluding Italy’ refers to banks in Ireland, Portugal and Spain. ‘Core excluding Germany’ refers to banks in Austria, Belgium, France and the Netherlands.