Somalia’s Only Solution: Proactive Strategy to Replace Reactive Tactics Kleanthis Kyriakidis

Overview Background: From Barre to Anarchy Piracy Root Causes Indigenous problems International Community’s Responsibility Current Scene-Setting Major players Semi-Autonomous Areas Towards a Viable Solution Cost Turkish Example Proposals Clannism – Islam Federalism – Institutions  

Background: From Barre to Anarchy Western Anti-Piracy Policy is not SAFE S = Suitable A = Acceptable F = Feasible E = Enduring Treating Symptoms, not Root Causes Judicial problems Operational problems Tactical problems   Vice Admiral William Gortney “Piracy is a problem that starts ashore and requires international solution ashore”

Background: From Barre to Anarchy Socialist experiment turned to dictatorship Exploitation of tribal character of the country despite homogeneity Ruthless persecution of “independent” clans “Divide and Conquer” policy 1991 - Collapse when ran out of Allies abroad and acquiescent clans in Somalia   Mohamed Siad Barre 22 years reign: October 1969 –January 1990

Background: From Barre to Anarchy Warlords – Civil War UN Response to humanitarian disaster UNOSOM I UNITAF UNOSOM II Main incidents Pakistani soldiers “Black Hawk Down” In Retrospect: Successful Intervention

Piracy Root Causes Indigenous problems 1.7 million IDPs – 800,000 refugees Starvation – drought Inter/Intra clan conflict Economy of war

PERIL: Pirates – Terrorists = heroes! Piracy Root Causes International Community’s Responsibility Livestock ban (Gulf countries) Somali fisheries’ exploitation – Attacks on fishermen Use of Somali coats as toxic dumpsters Restrictions/ ban on hawala companies Ethiopian invasion Support PERIL: Pirates – Terrorists = heroes!

Current Scene-Setting Major players TFG = “paper” government, according to ICG “inept, increasingly corrupt, and hobbled by weak leadership” Former ICU = Successful in curtailing the warlords and pirates Al-Shabaab = terrorists, extremists, linked to Al Qaeda AMISOM, Ethiopian, Kenyan army

Current Scene-Setting Semi-Autonomous Areas Somaliland 1991 Self-proclaimed independence Beel system Puntland Relatively stable – “former” pirate base Disputed areas with Somaliland South – Central Somalia AMISOM – ASWJ vs. Al-Shabaab

Current Scene-Setting

Towards a Viable Solution More than 12 futile Peace Conferences Cost UN Humanitarian Aid + Institution building (less than 0.5 billion $) Annual Cost of piracy for 2011, almost 7 billion $ Accumulated Cost all these years (130-140 billion $, some estimations over 200 billion $) Average Somali income 600-650$

Towards a Viable Solution Turkish Example August 2011 PM Erdogan first non-African leader to visit Mogadishu in more than 20 years Offer 115 million $, pledge to build 6 hospitals - turkish companies infrastructure, including airport Turkish Airlines first airliner to begin bi-weekly flights from Istanbul Scholarships to young Somalis

Proposals Take advantage of Clannism Elders = stabilizing force, providing conflict mediation and customary law Key factor: Cross- clan and clan – neutral approach, focusing on inter-clan contact and cooperation

Proposals Take advantage of Islam ICU proved efficient ICU curtailed “anti-Islamic” piracy Religion transcends clans Appease moderate political Islam so as not to face radical extremist Islam (Al-Shabaab) By approaching moderates, we can initiate talks with radicals

Proposals Federalism (Federal State or Confederation of States) Puntland – Somaliland de facto semi-autonomous Decentralized system acceptable/ suitable (central government always seen as predator) Instead of big projects, small, local, feasible ones Development projects especially for the coastal communities

Proposals Institutions Constitution Demilitarization of society (very utopian at the time being) Integration of all belligerents (even former Al-Shabaab or pirates) in the police – armed forces If we operationally succeed and not solve the Somali problem, piracy will disappear, but terrorism, organized crime, illegal immigration will take its place...

No matter what we do, piracy will exist as long as chaos reigns No matter what we do, piracy will exist as long as chaos reigns. We cannot expect to solve a problem by using reactive tactics; we need to replace them as soon as possible with a holistic proactive strategy for Somalia, addressing the situation in land.