The vision of 100% renewable energy Emily Rochon November 28, 2016

Is 100% RE possible? As of 2011, we had an estimated 1,000 Gt CO2 we can emit and have a reasonable chance of staying below 2% C. At our current pace, we will blow that budget by 2040. Renewable energy currently meets 19% of global primary energy demand.

Yes As of 2011, we had an estimated 1,000 Gt CO2 we can emit and have a reasonable chance of staying below 2% C. At our current pace, we will blow that budget by 2040. Renewable energy currently meets 19% of global primary energy demand.

Greenpeace’s Energy [R]evolution Scenarios produced in 2005 (Europe), ‘07, ‘08, ’10, ‘12, ’15 2015 scenario includes pathway to 100% renewable energy (RE) Energy [R]evolution shows it is technically and economically feasible to achieve 100% RE

Greenpeace’s RE pathways are the most accurate Why the E[R] is the best Our scenario has been the most accurate predictor of renewable energy uptake of all the scenarios out there, including those put forth by the International Energy Agency. We predicted almost exactly global trends for the uptake of wind (see slide on the right). For solar, we underestimated the potential growth trajectory (see red line on slide on left) but were closer than anyone else. Another takeaway from this slide, aside from the credibility and accuracy of our scenarios as compared to everyone else’s, is the pace with which renewable energy can grow once costs decline and technology matures. Solar exemplifies that perhaps better than any other renewable energy technology. PV installations across the globe are only accelerating and breaking records every year. That’s one of the many advantages of renewable energy over fossil fuels and nuclear power, it’s fast, flexible and much easier to install. Greenpeace’s RE pathways are the most accurate

Key Results

Primary Energy Demand RE final energy share: 2012: 19% // 2020: 23% // 2030: 42% // 2050: 100% This slide shows the critical role that energy efficiency plays in achieving the ER vision. Energy demand peaks in 2020 (at 355,000 PJ/a) before dropping 15% below current demand to 279,000 PJ/a. The drop in energy demand is realized by using more efficiency forms of transport and heating (e.g. electrification), modal shifts in the transport sector, e.g. road to rail, increasing building insulation, and leveraging the entire suite of energy efficiency technologies to ensure we use less energy.

Renewable electricity capacity & generation Electricity Sector Renewable electricity capacity & generation Generation 2012: 19% / 2020: 23% / 2030: 42% 2050: 100% Capacity 23,614 GW by 2050 Demand rises to more than 40,000 TWh/a in 2050 as electricity becomes the primary renewable energy fuel.

Investment Costs & Savings E[R] costs less than business-as-usual Investments total $64.6 trillion by 2050. Fuel cost savings would add up to US$42 trillion by 2050 (or US$1.1 trillion per year). The total fuel cost savings would cover 107% of the additional investments compared to the Reference scenario. NOTE: There is no price on carbon in the Energy [R]evolution analysis. A price on carbon would yield additional savings in both the Basic and Advanced E[R] scenarios relative to the Reference scenario.

Employment 45.2 million jobs in 100% RE scenario versus 29.1 million jobs in Reference scenario In addition to cost savings, one of the primary benefits of a renewable future is more jobs. Our scenario produces more than 16 million more jobs than business-as-usual by 2030: 45.2 million jobs in a 100% future compared to 29.1 million jobs in the reference scenario.

CO2 Emission Reductions % of 1990 emissions: 2012: 146% // 2020: 145% // 2030: 96% // 2040: 39% // 2050: 0% In the Advanced ER, CO2 emissions are kept to 667 Gt CO2, which is well below the 1,000 GT limit. Compare this to the Reference scenario, where CO2 emission are 1,400 Gt CO2 by 2050.

Key Takeaways of E[R] Yes we can. E[R] is technically & economically feasible. Save money. Fuel costs savings means 100% RE is less expensive than BAU. More jobs. RE provides greater employment opportunities than BAU. Safe climate: 100% RE only way to stay below 2 degrees.

What does 100% RE look like? Key features: Energy efficiency leads the way Electricity is the primary renewable fuel; all RE technologies have a role to play Everyone has access to RE and energy markets Utility business models are align w/a distributed & RE future Smart grids, storage, DSM create a dynamic market & enable a 100% RE To underscore the economic feasibility of our scenario, let’s look at the cost of renewable energy today. Renewable energy, like solar and wind, are increasingly cheaper than fossil fuels and are already cheaper than new nuclear power plants. The cost of solar PV has declined by well over 50% in the past 5 years and is expected to continue to get cheaper. Wind already competes with gas plants in markets across the globe. The notion that clean, local, renewable energy is more expensive than fossil fuels is outdated. Market developments in the energy sector bear this out with investments in renewable energy outpacing investments in fossil fuels for the past two years. In 2015, global investment in clean energy reached a record $367 billion (€336 billion), which exceeded investment in new fossil fuel-powered generation by 31%.

Reasons for Optimism

RE cheaper than fossil fuels …and getting cheaper Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs between $0.08-$0.13/kWh. Utility-scale solar is even cheaper. That’s 30-40% less than retail price of electricity in many markets globally. To underscore the economic feasibility of our scenario, let’s look at the cost of renewable energy today. Renewable energy, like solar and wind, are increasingly cheaper than fossil fuels and are already cheaper than new nuclear power plants. The cost of solar PV has declined by well over 50% in the past 5 years and is expected to continue to get cheaper. Wind already competes with gas plants in markets across the globe. The notion that clean, local, renewable energy is more expensive than fossil fuels is outdated. Market developments in the energy sector bear this out with investments in renewable energy outpacing investments in fossil fuels for the past two years. In 2015, global investment in clean energy reached a record $367 billion (€336 billion), which exceeded investment in new fossil fuel-powered generation by 31%. Examples: Unsubsidized wind bid in Morocco: 3 US cents/kWh https://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/18/new-low-for-wind-energy-costs-morocco-tender-averages-us30mwh/ Dong Energy building a Dutch offshore wind farm for a little more than 7 Euro cents/kWh http://www.sustainablebrands.com/news_and_views/cleantech/sustainable_brands/offshore_wind_costs_hit_record_low_dutch_wind_farm Solar in Abu Dhabi coming in at 2.42 US cents/kWh http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/cheapest-solar-on-record-said-to-be-offered-for-abu-dhabi

Momentum Records set in the power sector in 2015 Capacity - 147 GW of renewable capacity added 63 GW of wind 50 GW of solar Investment $367 billion invested (31% more than in new fossil fuel power generation) RE development now outpaces fossil fuel development in the power sector. By the end of 2015, renewable capacity in place was enough to supply an estimated 23.7% of global electricity, with hydropower providing about 16.6%. In 2015, global investment in clean energy reached a record $367 billion (€336 billion), which exceeded investment in new fossil fuel-powered generation by 31%.

Political Support Countries, cities, islands, companies committing to & achieving 100% RE 48 countries pledged to go 100% RE by 2050 at COP22 65 international companies have made commitments to 100% RE 700 cities signed Paris City Hall Declaration promising to transition to 100% RE

New Technologies, Business Models & Investment Vehicles Never underestimate the creativity and ingenuity of the renewable energy industry.

Thank you